I’ve been pondering Yusei Kikuchi’s commerce deadline destiny for months. That sounds overly particular – there are such a lot of gamers that get traded yearly. Why marvel about this one man? He has a 4.75 ERA this yr and a 4.72 mark for his profession. He’ll be a free agent at yr’s finish. Months? Shouldn’t I’ve been doing one thing extra helpful with my time? Most likely. However hey, now I’m in a greater place to write down about this notably astounding deadline transaction: Final evening, the Blue Jays traded Kikuchi to the Astros in trade for a bountiful crop of younger gamers: Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner.
Kikuchi turns analysts like me into Fox Mulder: We need to consider. We’re speaking a few man with one of many prettiest fastballs in baseball, interval. It has nice form. He throws laborious, sitting 94-96 mph and topping out round 99. Stuff fashions find it irresistible. PitchingBot thinks it’s the nastiest fastball thrown by a starter, and tied for the general finest (with Sonny Grey’s fastball) after contemplating location. Stuff+ is skeptical, comparatively talking – it thinks the fastball is the third-best amongst starters, behind the warmers of Kutter Crawford and Zack Wheeler.
Kikuchi throws a pleasant slider to enrich the fastball, 88-90 mph and with sharp chunk for a gyro slider. He rounds out his arsenal with a tough, two-plane curveball and a weird slider that appears to drift and fade concurrently. He does it from a cool arm slot and with a misleading supply. When Kikuchi is on, he’s able to torching opposing lineups singlehandedly. His first 10 begins of this season had been phenomenal: 2.64 ERA, 2.61 FIP, a 26% strikeout price, and a minuscule 5.5% stroll price. He’d been steadily bettering in Toronto, and this yr seemed like his breakout.
Since then, issues have gone fairly poorly. I’m speaking a few 6.87 ERA and 4.67 FIP poorly, 13 homers in solely 12 begins poorly. Kikuchi has gotten shelled repeatedly, and the Jays have plummeted out of the playoff race on the identical time. His timing for his woes may’ve hardly been worse, creating a wierd dilemma for the Jays. Kikuchi was on hearth by means of most of June, and the Jays’ playoff odds bounced round between 20 and 40 p.c throughout that point. When Kikuchi’s perceived commerce worth was at its highest, the crew wasn’t able to promote.
Then he began getting worse, and the Jays’ playoff odds began dipping on the identical time, with the underside falling out across the finish of June, when a seven-game shedding streak, adopted by a 4-6 stretch in opposition to playoff competitors, put them hopelessly far behind within the standings. It was lastly time to commerce Kikuchi – besides, throughout seven begins from Could 26-June 28, he had a 7.12 ERA and peripherals that weren’t a lot better. The sensible transfer appeared to be holding Kikuchi a bit longer, ready for each a rebound and the commerce deadline to provide some motivated patrons.
So the Jays held, however Kikuchi didn’t enhance a lot. He’s been barely higher in July, however solely barely: 6.59 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and a house run per begin over 5 begins. He managed six or extra innings in solely a type of begins, as well. However now time has run out, and so Kikuchi’s on the transfer. Or perhaps I ought to rephrase: Fortunately, simply earlier than time ran out, it seems that the complete hypothetical decline in Kikuchi’s commerce worth was simply made up. The Astros despatched the Blue Jays an exceptional commerce provide, and now Kikuchi is headed right down to the Gulf Coast to chase the playoffs.
I nonetheless assume Kikuchi is an effective possibility as a mid-rotation starter. He’s virtually actually not so good as his early-season kind, however he’s a lot better than he’s carried out over the past two months. His recreation sinks or floats based mostly on what number of dwelling runs he permits. That’s been the story along with his model-beloved arsenal, too; they’re nice pitches on common, however he leaves each his fastball and slider in harmful areas an excessive amount of for somebody with out large motion. His pitches are extra timing-disruptive than pure bat-missers, and that simply doesn’t work as properly while you depart it middle-middle.
For the Astros, that mixture in all probability feels acquainted. A homer-prone pitcher who appears dominant when the ball stays within the yard? Seems like Hunter Brown, or late-career Justin Verlander. However the Astros have struggled to discipline beginning pitchers all yr. They misplaced two starters they had been relying on for the entire season in June. Verlander has been out for greater than a month. Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t pitched all yr, and his rehab has been rocky; there’s at the moment no timeline for his return. Their rotation has been three strong arms (Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, and Brown), after which pray for rain, not one of the best plan in a retractable-roof stadium.
Even worse, Blanco and Brown are going to succeed in their profession highs in innings quickly, so the crew is speaking a few six-man rotation to guard its arms. Including Kikuchi lessens the load on the highest trio considerably. He’s not precisely an innings eater, however the Astros certainly might be pleased with somebody going on the market each fifth or sixth day and placing up five-plus respectable innings.
One of many guys Houston has turned to for innings in current weeks is Jake Bloss, the headline of the gamers heading to Toronto within the deal. He’s been superior, a spectacularly quick riser who was a 3rd spherical draft choose solely final yr earlier than tearing by means of the minors. He was a breakout small-college participant who transferred to Georgetown in his senior yr and impressed in opposition to his hardest competitors but, so he’s been transferring up ranges and stunning individuals for 3 years now. A winter within the Houston pitching lab appears to have sharpened his command, and as you may count on, he has the crew’s signature rising fastball cooking in 2024.
This isn’t some mirage; he’s throwing a number of plus pitches and might need fairly good command, too. Within the minors, he struck out 27% of batters and allowed little or no laborious contact en path to a sub-2.00 ERA and strong 3.20 FIP. He shredded minor league hitters so comprehensively that I utterly perceive why Houston introduced him as much as the majors to see if the magic may proceed, however his first three massive league begins have been tough. Extra particularly, his third main league begin was tough: The A’s launched 4 homers off of him in solely 4 innings. I’m a giant fan of the potential right here, however I’d ideally give him a bit bit extra time within the minors to develop, and I believe the Astros reached that conclusion as properly, therefore the commerce.
This might’ve made for a logical one-for-one swap: a fast-rising pitching prospect for a mid-rotation rental. However then, unfathomably, the Astros kicked in considerably extra. We had Bloss as their no. 2 prospect; Joey Loperfido was no. 3 till he graduated from prospect standing earlier this season. He’s a giant versatile outfielder with true-outcome fever; he has 30-homer energy, takes walks, and strikes out a bunch. Our prospect crew put a forty five FV grade on him as a flexible bench participant with the power to discipline 5 positions (the outfield plus first and second), with an out of doors probability of hitting sufficient to develop into an on a regular basis participant.
However wait, there’s nonetheless extra. The final participant within the deal is Will Wagner, Billy Wagner’s son and an upper-minors infielder with a contact-over-power strategy. You may in all probability image this common archetype; when it really works out in addition to attainable, it’s Brendan Donovan. When it doesn’t, it’s any variety of utility infielders that your crew makes use of to patch holes within the roster. Wagner is hitting .307/.424/.429 with extra strikeouts than walks in Triple-A this yr, however I believe that line overstates his probably main league affect. Pitchers are going to assail him with strikes till he begins to make them pay for it, and as you might need realized from how comparable his OBP and slug are, that’s been a battle for him.
Nonetheless, it’s extremely probably that Wagner turns into a part-time contributor within the majors, if solely on the backside of the roster. He’s Rule 5 eligible after this yr, and I believe that the Jays’ roster state of affairs makes it probably that he’ll find yourself on the 40-man consequently. The Astros had been unlikely to have house for him, in order that addition appears like a get-the-deal-over-the-finish-line sweetener.
Solely… why did the Astros want so as to add a sweetener? It is a large win for the Blue Jays, in my view. The Astros are wizards relating to getting probably the most out of mid-round draft picks. Bloss, Loperfido, and Wagner are all massive success tales, unheralded picks who’ve far exceeded their expectations. However after doing all that tough work, the crew circled and flipped them for a mid-rotation rental.
I perceive why the Astros want Kikuchi. However based mostly on returns on the previous few commerce deadlines, Bloss alone was proper round what I’d count on the Jays to get for dealing him. Perhaps a Wagner-type participant or two if the Astros had been notably eager to get the deal executed. Loperfido, too? That’s lots of good younger gamers for 2-3 months of a solid-but-not-overwhelming pitcher.
The extra I mull this over in my head, the extra I believe the Astros wished Kikuchi particularly. In the event that they had been calling each crew in baseball and saying “We want beginning, and we’ll provide Jake Bloss plus…” somebody would have dealt them an arm in pretty quick order. I’d commerce a number of the starters who haven’t but been moved (Jack Flaherty and Zack Littell spring to thoughts) for lower than this return, and I think that their groups may too. This solely is sensible to me if the Astros wished Kikuchi particularly and weren’t keen to overlook their man. That’s how you find yourself making a suggestion that makes analysts throughout the board go “Whoa, actually?”
I believe it’s value bumping expectations of Kikuchi up barely given this context. When a crew needs somebody this badly, it certainly has a purpose. However I additionally assume the Astros entrance workplace is a wierd mishmash of outdated and new, and that they’re working at cross functions. The a part of the org that sagely selects school pitchers with attention-grabbing peripherals after which helps them unlock new heights of their recreation in all probability isn’t the identical half that ships out a mountain of high prospects for two-plus months of a mid-rotation starter. I perceive the Astros’ motivation within the deal, and but I nonetheless assume they gave up an excessive amount of.
