After lacking out on Blake Snell and dropping a Juan Soto bidding conflict to their crosstown rivals, the Yankees landed an enormous free agent on Tuesday, signing left-handed pitcher Max Fried to an eight-year contract price $218 million. Fried, a first-round decide in 2012 for the Padres, had spent his whole MLB profession with the Atlanta Braves after being one of many big-name prospects included within the 2014 Justin Upton commerce. Fried’s contract accommodates no opt-outs or elevator clauses or any fancy deferral schemes to deliver down the overall cash. The Yankees are opening their wallets to pay the most effective pitchers obtainable an entire lot of money. Fried’s contract is the biggest for a left-handed pitcher in baseball historical past.
After Fried was restricted to only 14 begins in 2023 because of hamstring and forearm accidents, in addition to a blister on his index finger, the lefty returned to the mound final season and pitched effectively sufficient and stayed wholesome sufficient to max out his deal in free company. Sufficient is the important thing right here as a result of, for the second straight season, Fried missed time with a forearm damage. The newer one, which was identified as ulnar neuritis, value him a handful of begins in July, however he returned to the rotation the primary week of August. He completed the common season sturdy, posting a 2.99 FIP throughout his last 11 begins, although he faltered towards the Padres in his lone playoff look. All advised, Fried had a strong platform season, with a 3.25 ERA and three.33 FIP in 174 1/3 innings over 29 begins, good for 3.4 WAR and peripherals proper in step with his profession numbers.
If I didn’t embody the eight-year projections, a few of you would possibly picket my home and eat the native chili in vengeance, so right here we go.
ZiPS Projections – Max Fried
| 12 months | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12 | 8 | 3.43 | 27 | 27 | 162.7 | 141 | 62 | 15 | 48 | 147 | 120 | 3.1 |
| 2026 | 11 | 7 | 3.59 | 26 | 26 | 153.0 | 137 | 61 | 15 | 45 | 135 | 115 | 2.7 |
| 2027 | 10 | 7 | 3.76 | 25 | 25 | 146.0 | 135 | 61 | 16 | 44 | 125 | 110 | 2.3 |
| 2028 | 9 | 8 | 3.95 | 23 | 23 | 134.3 | 129 | 59 | 16 | 42 | 113 | 104 | 1.8 |
| 2029 | 8 | 8 | 4.13 | 22 | 22 | 128.7 | 129 | 59 | 16 | 43 | 105 | 100 | 1.4 |
| 2030 | 7 | 7 | 4.43 | 19 | 19 | 111.7 | 117 | 55 | 15 | 41 | 88 | 93 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 6 | 6 | 4.66 | 17 | 17 | 96.7 | 104 | 50 | 14 | 37 | 74 | 89 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 4 | 6 | 4.93 | 14 | 14 | 76.7 | 83 | 42 | 12 | 32 | 57 | 84 | 0.2 |
I’m really a bit stunned on the bearishness of the projections; ZiPS is considering he’s price $120 million, which is shockingly low to me. Almost certainly it’s from a couple of issues. ZiPS is probably going seeing one thing just like what’s mirrored in his xERA, which was 3.64 final season, and his contact-against numbers have declined a bit. Additionally complicating issues are Fried’s 4 IL stints over the previous two years — that are retaining his projected inning totals pretty conservative. Past that, ZiPS has much more pleasure for Snell’s upside than it does for Fried’s steadiness. I are usually extra optimistic than ZiPS right here.
Even when Fried falls in need of being the 1B to Gerrit Cole’s 1A within the rotation, some type of signing right here was mandatory for the Yankees after they misplaced out on Snell and did not retain Soto. Positive, the rotation wasn’t the workforce’s largest downside coming into the offseason, but it surely wasn’t precisely a spotlight, both. Even with an improved Carlos Rodón throughout his second season in pinstripes, in addition to a Rookie of the 12 months marketing campaign from Luis Gil, the Yankees’ rotation was proper round league common when it comes to WAR. A few of that middling manufacturing was because of Cole’s lacking the primary two and a half months of the season with elbow irritation, which restricted him to 95 innings. Nonetheless, Cole is now 34, Rodón has a big damage historical past, and Gil might be due for some regression. Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt additionally missed time final season, and Marcus Stroman was inconsistent sufficient that he was booted from the rotation down the stretch and didn’t pitch within the postseason. Contemplating all of this, the Yankees have been smart so as to add one other reliable arm right here, even when Fried’s forearm illnesses are a bit regarding.
Perhaps it’s simply me, but it surely by no means felt just like the Braves have been actually all-in on Fried this winter. With the conversion of Reynaldo López again to a full-time starter going efficiently and Spencer Schwellenbach’s terrific debut (and excellent projections), I’m guessing the workforce was blissful to rely on Spencer Strider’s return and a wholesome Chris Sale to anchor the rotation.
The Yankees nonetheless have loads to do to fill the Soto-sized gap of their lineup, however they wanted to do extra than simply make up for his misplaced manufacturing. In signing Fried, they’ve fortified their rotation.
