In case you’re a serious league hitter, you’ll attain a two-strike rely. Not each time – baseball isn’t an each time recreation – however ceaselessly, constantly, inevitably. In these two-strike counts, you’re going to see sliders. Once more, not each time, however ceaselessly. 1 / 4 of two-strike pitches within the majors this yr have been sliders of some selection. Pitchers are not any dummies, they usually know the place their bread is buttered.
The worst factor that might occur with these two-strike sliders you’re certain to face? A strikeout, clearly. However dangerous information: There are going to be strikeouts. Once more, not each time, however strikeouts are only a truth of life in baseball as of late, and 21% of two-strike sliders have resulted in strikeouts this yr. Not within the plate look – on that pitch particularly. No surprise pitchers throw so a lot of them.
With all that in thoughts, right here’s a press release I’m certain you’ll agree with: A great way to get higher at hitting is to cease hanging out on two-strike sliders. I imply, this isn’t rocket science. Hanging out is dangerous. Doing it much less is nice. Thanks for coming to my TED speak.
Oh, proper, I suppose I nonetheless need to let you know what this text is about. Let’s discuss a participant who made a heroic change. Early in his profession, he did a good job defending in opposition to sliders with two strikes (15.4% putaway charge on two-strike sliders). In 2023, although, issues took a flip; he struck out on 20% of the two-strike sliders he noticed. This yr, nevertheless, he’s defending in opposition to them higher than ever. No participant in baseball has gone down much less ceaselessly in opposition to two-strike sliders than our thriller man’s 8.6% clip. Pitchers merely can’t get him out. He’s placing up an excellent 118 wRC+ and hanging out much less usually than final yr.
There’s only one downside: Our blind merchandise participant is Yandy Díaz. And whereas he’s having a suitable season this yr, it’s miles worse than final yr’s marketing campaign, when he was swinging and lacking in any respect these two-strike sliders. He’s not even doing higher with two strikes. His batting common, on-base proportion, and slugging proportion in two-strike counts have all declined this yr, each in opposition to sliders and general.
If this looks like fairly the conundrum, that’s as a result of it’s. The important thing growth of baseball over the previous decade has been pitchers more and more searching strikeouts. I don’t want to indicate you a type of charts of slider charge over time; all you must do is watch a recreation. They’re utilizing the pitch extra as a result of it really works, and one of many key methods it really works is by lacking bats in advantageous counts. Sliders are the most effective strikeout weapon in trendy baseball.
Nevertheless, the opposite aspect of that is an inconvenient fact for individuals who like balls in play and motion. Let’s take Díaz for example. He’s fully modified his conduct in opposition to sliders this yr as in comparison with final yr. It’s not a pitch recognition factor. He swung at two-strike sliders off the plate (within the Chase and Waste zones outlined by Baseball Savant) 23% of the time final yr, and that’s as much as 26% this yr, every in small samples. He’s defending sliders over the plate at roughly the identical charge: 98% final yr, 94% this yr. He’s not even getting fooled much less by completely positioned sliders simply off of the sting of the zone; he swung at 78% of these final yr and 82% to this point this yr.
No, Díaz made a totally completely different change: He simply stopped lacking. Final yr, he swung at 71 two-strike sliders that weren’t over the lifeless center of the plate. In different phrases, these are the pitches that had been, roughly, executed the best way the opposing pitcher wished. He got here up empty on 35% of these swings. That’s not disastrous or something – the league common is round 37%. This yr, he’s all the way down to a 14.5% whiff charge, which is the bottom in baseball, only a hair forward of contact god Luis Arraez, who has gone greater than a month with out hanging out. Final yr, Díaz whiffed on 27% of down-the-middle sliders on two strikes. This yr, he’s at 3.6%, one whiff on 28 swings.
We don’t have bat monitoring knowledge for 2023, which is a disgrace, however there’s a straightforward assumption to make right here. How do you retain your swing choices unchanged and but make contact at a far increased charge? By taking a much less violent swing. You may see it within the numbers. He’s hitting the ball meaningfully softer when he affords at two-strike sliders. His hard-hit charge when he places one in play has dipped from 54% to 36%, and he’s had over roughly 100 balls in play in every year, so not a tiny pattern.
Laborious-hit charge is hardly the one change right here. His common exit velocity and ninetieth percentile exit velocity are means down on these swings. His floor contact, specifically, is totally abysmal. We’re speaking 83.4 common exit velocity, .174 slugging proportion depressing. He’s chopping the ball into the bottom fairly than taking a strikeout, which is an efficient cut price – solely we’re speaking about 23 extra grounders this yr, which is a ton.
This explicit change in Díaz’s recreation has permeated the remainder of his offensive method. He’s performing worse in opposition to each sort of slider regardless of making contact with them extra usually, and it’s all as a consequence of contact high quality. In case you’re in search of it in xwOBA phrases, he punished the sliders he put in play final yr to the tune of a .506 xwOBA. This yr he’s all the way down to .376. That’s the distinction between Giancarlo Stanton’s manufacturing on contact and Edmundo Sosa’s. Saving the odd strikeout right here or there can’t presumably make up for that form of swing.
I don’t know if this modification is intentional. It’s actually hanging, although, as a result of the change in conduct appears restricted to breaking balls. Towards fastballs, little or no has modified. There, his hard-hit charge is basically unchanged, and whereas he’s hitting the ball on the bottom a bit extra usually, that needed to be anticipated after his profession yr in 2023. Likewise, he’s principally the identical participant when he swings at changeups and splitters; he’s really hitting these pitches a bit more durable this yr, although in a small pattern. He’s additionally getting higher outcomes. However in opposition to flexible stuff – largely sliders, however curves as properly – every little thing has gone flawed.
Right here’s the soiled secret about sliders: As a lot because the swings and misses are interesting, batters altering their method and sacrificing contact high quality works simply as properly for the protection. Pitchers will gladly sacrifice a number of strikeouts if it means somebody with Díaz’s uncooked energy is slapping the ball on the bottom.
Right here’s one other means of taking a look at it: Díaz has seen 51 sliders this yr the place our PitchingBot mannequin thinks that a median hitter would hit a house run not less than 2% of the time. You may consider these as crushable sliders; the typical dwelling run chance of all sliders he’s seen this yr is just 0.6%. He’s hit one homer on these 51 pitches. Total, his whole manufacturing on these sliders – and keep in mind, these are the worst he’s seen all yr – is 1.5 runs above common relative to a random pitch. That’s fairly depressing. For comparability’s sake, he noticed 61 final yr and hit three homers on the best way to being 5.1 runs above common.
There are a number of methods to beat pitchers who throw you too many sliders. First, you may spit on those that aren’t within the zone. We’ve already established that Díaz hasn’t modified his swing charge, although, in order that one’s out. Second, you may punish the dangerous ones. Announcers discuss hanging sliders on a regular basis. It’s an actual danger! In case you depart one sitting up over the plate, good hitters can crank it out of the park. However they’re lots much less possible to try this in the event that they’re centered closely on making contact. The swing that you simply use to make contact with a very good slider and the one you utilize to deposit a foul one within the outfield seats in all probability aren’t the very same.
Possibly that is all simply coincidence. There’s actually some probability that these two issues – fewer whiffs and worse contact high quality – simply randomly occurred directly. However that doesn’t appear significantly possible, and it significantly doesn’t appear possible that somebody like Díaz would have each occur to him with no company in anyway.
Actually, a number of the hitters who’ve made the other change are seeing the ends in reverse. Ketel Marte is hanging out on two-strike sliders extra ceaselessly than ever earlier than, and but he’s having maybe his greatest yr. I’m simply cherry choosing examples, although; there’s little or no correlation between change in two-strike slider putaway charge and alter in offensive manufacturing.
What does all of this imply? For me, there’s one key takeaway: You may’t simply eliminate dangerous outcomes with out giving one thing else up. Hitting is all about tradeoffs, and pondering rigorously about which of them you make is essential. Some hitters lower down on their slider putaway charge and see large returns – Ryan O’Hearn is a superb instance right here. Some hitters strike out extra ceaselessly on sliders and in addition do worse general – assume Jeimer Candelario. You may’t simply take a look at one statistic, even one which appears as uncomplicated and essential as, “Do you strike out an excessive amount of in opposition to sliders?” and get a transparent reply. Hitting is difficult! There are not any easy options. Simply ask Yandy Díaz.
