Will Shohei Ohtani Go 50-50? And If So, When?

There are numerous nice baseball storylines to maintain tabs on this month. Aaron Choose is on yet one more historic tear. Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals are crashing the playoff occasion. The Brewers and Guardians are displaying the league that you just overlook the Central divisions at your individual peril. Nevertheless it all pales compared to Shohei Ohtani’s pursuit of fifty dwelling runs and 50 stolen bases, no less than for me.

The 50-50 membership doesn’t have any members. Ohtani is alone within the 44-44 membership, the very best present rung he’s attained, and it doesn’t seem like anybody else will probably be becoming a member of him anytime quickly. Ohtani himself most likely gained’t repeat this; it is a profession excessive in steals by a mile, and I don’t assume it’s a coincidence that it’s taking place in a season when he isn’t pitching. Subsequent 12 months, I believe that he’ll rein himself in additional, however proper now, we’re seeing what it seems to be like when a quick participant decides that they actually do wish to steal all of the bases they’ll. In fact, it helps that he’s additionally one of the crucial highly effective hitters within the recreation – each to purpose for the 50-50 goal and since opposing pitchers stroll him very often.

Will he make it? I’m undecided, however fortunately I’ve a technique that lets me estimate the chances. When Choose hit 62 homers two years in the past, I constructed a little software to estimate the chance of him hitting that milestone, in addition to the probabilities of it taking place in any specific recreation. That methodology works fairly properly typically, so I redid it with just a few modifications to deal with the truth that we’re taking a look at two counting statistics as an alternative of only one. I’ll begin by reviewing the methodology, although in case you’re not into that, there are some tables down under that offers you an thought of when and the place Ohtani may hit (or run into) this momentous milestone.

I began with our Depth Charts projection for Ohtani’s dwelling run fee the remainder of the best way. That’s primarily based on impartial opposition, so I additionally took opposing pitching staffs under consideration, in addition to park components for lefty dwelling run fee. Lefties hit extra homers in Dodger Stadium (12 remaining video games) than in Truist Park (three remaining video games), and batters hit extra homers towards the Rockies (six remaining video games) than the Padres (three remaining video games). I used park issue and opposition energy to change Ohtani’s baseline dwelling run fee and create a singular dwelling run fee for every remaining recreation. I then picked a random variety of plate appearances (4, 5, or six, with 5 probably the most frequent) for every recreation.

The Dodgers will possible give Ohtani no less than in the future off the remainder of the season, so I constructed that into my calculations. I don’t know which day will probably be particularly, so I had my simulation decide a random day in Los Angeles’ upcoming 10-games-in-10-days stretch. I additionally made a slight adjustment to higher replicate actuality: As a substitute of getting a static dwelling run fee, Ohtani’s true dwelling run expertise fluctuates randomly round his projected fee, which signifies that typically he hits dwelling runs 8% of the time on this simulation, whereas typically it’s nearer to five%.

Projecting the probabilities of him hitting 50 homers is fairly straightforward that approach. The distribution of doable video games he’ll do it in seems to be like this:

That’s not the query we’re asking, although. Fifty homers is cool however hardly unparalleled. We’re trying to find 50-50 seasons. To do this, I added a second counter for stolen bases. I didn’t use park and staff components right here, I simply took a projected steal fee for Ohtani and utilized it to the remaining video games. I did make one modification, although. Clearly Ohtani can’t steal a base if he hits a homer, so I subtracted every recreation’s homer complete from its plate look complete for the stake of modeling stolen bases. In different phrases, if he batted 5 instances and hit two homers, I’d solely simulate an opportunity of a steal within the remaining three PAs.

From there, issues are fairly straightforward. When sim-Ohtani hits his fiftieth homer, the simulation checks to see if he already has 50 steals. If he does, that recreation is his 50-50 day. If he doesn’t, then the simulation for stolen bases for that day runs. On the day of his fiftieth steal, the identical factor occurs in reverse – if he already has 50 homers, then that’s the day he hits 50-50. If not, the simulation retains going. On this approach, we will get the joint odds of the 2 issues taking place as an alternative of the impartial odds of every one.

The sum chance of Ohtani hitting each totals is round 56%. That makes intuitive sense to me – we’re projecting him for 50 homers and 51 steals, and I believe the remaining parks and opponents bias the house run complete upward. The joint chance can’t be way more than 50%, however I don’t assume it ought to be a lot much less both, on condition that he’s fairly more likely to hit the steals complete. I peg these odds at round 84%. That’s greater than you’d count on from our projections, however numerous stolen base fee comes right down to intent, and I’m pretty certain that Ohtani intends to steal 50 bases this 12 months, so his go fee is probably going greater than our naive projections.

The distribution of days the place Ohtani may go 50-50 seems to be like this:

In different phrases, in case you can solely go to 1 recreation and need the very best probability of seeing a record-setting occasion, it is best to go to the primary recreation of the ultimate collection of the 12 months in Colorado. When you solely wish to go to 1 collection, it ought to be that one. Ohtani may definitely hit each totals earlier, but it surely’s tough on condition that doing extra of 1 occasion implies much less of the opposite.

That’s to not say there’s no probability of an early milestone. There’s a roughly 7% probability that Ohtani hits each plateaus earlier than the ultimate homestand of the 12 months begins on September 20, and an extra 30% probability of him hitting it throughout these six dwelling video games. If I have been trying to find a particular time to go see him, I’d decide that one: at dwelling, towards first a foul pitching employees after which a division rival.

One factor price noting is that these odds can change quick. If Ohtani hits a homer and steals a base tomorrow night time, the chances shoot up into the mid-70s instantly. The most probably time to see the 50-50 recreation strikes as much as the final recreation of the house Colorado collection, with the stretch towards the Padres not far behind. While you’re coping with such uncommon occasions – nobody hits a homer each night time – a binge of a day or two can have an enormous impact.

Is that this gospel? Clearly not – it’s a easy simulation meant to provide you a tough thought, not me predicting the long run with excellent readability. However that tough thought is fairly cool. Ohtani may do the beforehand unthinkable and submit the power-speed season that has been lengthy rumored however by no means achieved. I completely wish to know when that may be – and pinpointing it for enjoyable is correct up my alley.