It’s exhausting to imagine that the roll-call of grand prix winners across the Baku Metropolis Circuit, together with Nico Rosberg, Daniel Ricciardo and Valtteri Bottas, doesn’t function the driving force who now has 4 pole positions in Azerbaijan to his identify.
Charles Leclerc will lead the sector away on Sunday’s formation lap for the fourth consecutive 12 months, nonetheless in pursuit of his first victory in Baku.
The Ferrari driver’s confidence is as excessive because it has been all season, having crushed the McLarens of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris to the chequered flag final day out in Monza. And with Norris nicely down the grid following a poorly-timed yellow flag in Q1, Leclerc solely has one McLaren to concern himself with on Sunday. Particularly as the 2 Pink Bulls of Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen are fourth and sixth, respectively.
Though Leclerc has began from pole twice in 2024, that is solely his second pole of the 12 months earned by being the quickest in qualifying after Monaco – which he received. Provided that Ferrari has tended to be stronger in race trim than qualifying, the pole winner is of course feeling good heading into Sunday.
“I didn’t do a lap with excessive gasoline, but it surely’s been a reasonably sturdy level of the automotive this 12 months,” Leclerc mentioned after qualifying. “So I’m not frightened going into tomorrow’s race, however clearly we have to do issues proper.
“I’ll need to do a little bit of homework tonight to be able to prepare for tomorrow, however I’m not too frightened that we’ll do the perfect job with our package deal after which we’ll see whether or not it’s adequate to win the race tomorrow or not.”
If he is ready to win, there’s greater than only a victory within the providing for him. Ought to Leclerc win and Norris fail to attain some extent, he’ll bounce the McLaren driver to turn into the closest driver to Verstappen within the championship.
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Climate
Drivers could have a lot to concern themselves with over the course of Sunday’s race. Nonetheless, rain is not going to be one thing they should fear about.
As anticipated heading into the weekend, there’s just about zero threat of rain anticipated for the race, with shiny, sunny skies prone to be overhead. Ambient temperatures round 26C means situations for the race shall be just like that in qualifying.
The one distinction, doubtlessly, is larger winds. Southerly gusts of as much as 42kph are predicted throughout the race, which may add an additional layer of problem for drivers on prime of what’s already a low-grip circuit this weekend.
Begin
At below 100 metres from pole place to the primary nook, this is among the shortest begins of the whole season. It’s little shock, subsequently, that the driving force on pole usually retains the lead over the opening lap.
Within the seven races held in Baku so far, the driving force on pole has led into flip two on six events. The one time they haven’t was when Perez beat Leclerc off the road in 2022, making the most of being on the within line to take the lead.
Nonetheless, this 12 months, pole place may very well be much more of a profit for Leclerc. The low grip provided by the unwashed streets may make the appropriate aspect of the grid, which is the racing line, considerably grippier than the left aspect, the place Piastri will begin from.
However even when Leclerc stays forward on the opening lap, it is going to be important that he escapes past a second of whoever is behind him to keep away from falling sufferer to DRS. Final 12 months, he couldn’t and was rapidly picked off by Verstappen on lap three, then Perez on lap six.
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Technique
Just like the final spherical at Monza, technique for Baku is a reasonably easy affair. A one cease technique, beginning on mediums and becoming the exhausting tyres for the second stint.
That has been the case for the final two races right here, however the wildcard risk posed by a sudden Security Automotive can’t be ignored. A number of groups have been proactive of their tyre utilization by way of the weekend to this point to cowl that precise risk.
“The 2-stop solely turns into credible if there’s a Security Automotive within the second half of the race,” mentioned Pirelli’s Mario Isola. “That’s in all probability why many drivers have held again two units of exhausting tyres for tomorrow afternoon.
“The primary cease ought to come between laps 13 and 20 for individuals who decide to start out on the mediums, whereas those that go away the grid on hards ought to pit between laps 32 and 38.”
The excessive diploma of monitor evolution may show an element, with the final low grip of the floor rising the danger of tyre graining, which may catch some drivers out because it did in Monza final day out.
Overtaking
On paper, Baku ought to be a circuit the place overtaking is greater than doable. Boasting the longest single full-throttle part on the calendar and a DRS zone that reinforces drivers as much as over 340kph – which is 100m longer than it was final 12 months – there’s fewer extra apparent overtaking factors in System 1 than down to show one.
Such was the case final 12 months, when Leclerc was swallowed up by the 2 Pink Bull drivers alongside the pit straight with assistance from the RB19’s super-powered DRS. However there are different passing alternatives, with the second DRS straight exiting flip two making flip three the second-most well-liked passing spot on the circuit. Final 12 months, Fernando Alonso confirmed that the courageous could make strikes into flip 4 as he mugged Carlos Sainz Jnr on the restart, whereas even the downhill run to show 16 has been identified to see overtakes prior to now.
Nonetheless, the quantity of passes appears to be lowering regularly over time. Whereas the primary ever race in 2016 produced over 60 on-track overtakes, with 50 in 2018 and 2019, final 12 months’s race had the fewest ever at simply 18. Lando Norris believes passing shall be “worse than everybody thinks” on Sunday. However will he be confirmed proper?
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Security Vehicles
There’s a notion that Baku is among the true wildcard rounds of the season, the place racing is usually as chaotic as it’s claustrophobic. This notoriety is essentially born from the manic races in 2017 and 2018, that noticed 5 Security Automotive deployments and several other collisions by way of the sector.
Nonetheless, Baku is definitely a monitor that produces as many tame and uneventful races because it does wild and dramatic ones. Three of the seven races held at Baku have had zero Security Automotive deployments, whereas the inaugural race in 2016 ran totally with out interruption.
The latest run of seven consecutive rounds with out a Security Automotive, and only a single lap of Digital Security Automotive, means that this could be one other quiet race. Nonetheless, the proximity of the obstacles and the restricted run-offs obtainable imply that it solely takes one mistake by one driver to remodel the race.
Such was the case final 12 months when Nyck de Vries crashed out ten laps into the race, simply as the one spherical of pit stops had been starting. The ensuing Security Automotive, which got here moments after Verstappen pitted from the lead, allowed second-placed Perez to pit the very subsequent lap and emerge forward of his workforce mate, holding onto the lead till the chequered flag.
Any form of intervention round 1 / 4 or three-quarters of the way in which into the race may doubtlessly make the distinction between the winners and losers on Sunday.
One to observe
It appears that evidently just about each grand prix weekend, there’s one driver from the highest 4 groups who finally ends up beginning deep within the again half of the grid for one cause or one other.
This weekend, Norris is the one whose quantity has come up when destiny solid its die. The motive force who headed into the weekend with clear intention to try to take a serious chunk out of Verstappen’s championship lead with the energetic help of his workforce mate will as a substitute have to start out from down in sixteenth on the grid.
Norris himself, in trademark style, was pessimistic about his prospects of scoring first rate factors on Sunday, arguing that passing could be more durable than many would anticipate even with the prolonged DRS zone. However Norris is preventing for a world championship for the primary time in his profession – at the least, that’s what his workforce believes. So now’s the time for him to ship the form of ‘again towards the wall’, preventing efficiency that any potential world champion could be anticipated to indicate in such a state of affairs.
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