A lot of the deal with the White Sox’ commerce efforts this offseason will focus on Garrett Crochet, and with good motive — he’s the highest beginning pitcher who’s available available on the market. Nonetheless, heading into the 2024 marketing campaign, it was Luis Robert Jr. who was seen as Chicago’s potential prime prize on the deadline. One other slate of accidents ruined the proficient however fragile middle fielder’s ’24 marketing campaign and additional added to his popularity as an injury-prone participant. The Sox are nonetheless hoping to maneuver Robert, writes Bob Nightengale of USA At the moment, however one rival basic supervisor tells Nightengale that Chicago’s asking worth is solely unrealistic, given all the well being considerations surrounding Robert.
“You’ve received to hope he lastly stays wholesome and might be the participant everybody envisioned all alongside,” that GM mentioned. “However the White Sox are performing like he’s some massive star middle fielder and are asking to your prime prospects.”
It’s comprehensible that the Sox could be reluctant to promote low on Robert. He’s among the many most proficient gamers within the sport when wholesome — he simply merely hasn’t been wholesome for almost all of his profession. Robert has had six IL placements courting again to the 2021 season, lots of which sidelined him for important durations of time. A hip flexor pressure in 2021 sidelined him for greater than three months. He missed greater than two months this previous season owing to the identical damage. Robert has additionally been shelved for a wrist sprain, an MCL sprain, and a extra ominous viral an infection in 2022 that resulted in blurred imaginative and prescient, dizziness and lightheadedness.
That large slate of accidents seemed to have taken its toll on Robert this previous season. He landed on the injured record only a week into the season and returned in June however by no means actually discovered his footing. Robert hit 5 homers in his first 36 plate appearances upon activation — however he solely collected one different hit in that point. He tallied 396 plate appearances post-injury in 2024 and slashed simply .225/.281/.370 with a 32% strikeout fee.
Clearly, that’s not the kind of manufacturing that’s going to generate curiosity in a participant who’s owed a $15MM wage subsequent season. Nonetheless, from 2021-23, Robert slashed a mixed .287/.331/.511 with 63 homers and 37 steals in simply 1292 plate appearances. He performed plus-plus protection in middle discipline alongside the best way; regardless of taking part in solely 301 video games in that three-year span, Robert tallied 21 Outs Above Common — good for twelfth amongst all main league outfielders. That sturdy run was headlined by a 2023 marketing campaign — Robert’s age-25 season — throughout which he hit .264/.315/.542 and popped 38 residence runs in a career-high 595 journeys to the plate. Robert made the All-Star crew, gained a Silver Slugger, and drew some downballot MVP votes.
That’s the kind of upside any crew could be hoping to land when buying Robert. Sadly, whereas his per-game and per-inning efficiency in 2021-23 was glorious, that 2023 season is the one one during which Robert has exceeded 425 plate appearances. He’s appeared in solely 65.9% of potential video games in his five-year run with the White Sox.
Robert’s 2024 season wasn’t with out its silver linings. His common dash pace, per Statcast, ticked as much as 28.8 ft per second — the second-best mark of his profession. He’d been down at a still-strong however not-elite 27.9 ft/sec the primary time he handled a hip flexor pressure. His pace bounced again extra this time round. And whereas his defensive grades dipped, that was largely resulting from some errant throws. Statcast nonetheless rated Robert’s vary fairly strongly. He additionally sat within the 84th percentile of MLB hitters in bat pace and usually hit the ball onerous (90.1 mph common exit velocity, 40.6% hard-hit fee) when he made contact. He simply didn’t make contact sufficient (career-worst 32.8% strikeout fee).
Robert’s contract pays him $15MM subsequent 12 months. There are a pair of matching $20MM membership choices for the 2026 and 2027 seasons on the deal. Getting the 2021-23 model of Robert for the following three seasons at a mixed $55MM could be a steal, even when he spent about one-third of that point on the injured record, as he did in ’21-’23. (Each Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs agree Robert was value about 10.5 WAR throughout that run, even with the missed time.)
The issue for groups, in fact, is that there’s no assure he’ll get again to that stage of play. Taking a one-year, $15MM flier might be interesting to many outfield-needy golf equipment, notably with the pair of membership choices looming. Taking over that wage and surrendering top-tier prospects is one other story totally. From the White Sox’ vantage level, buying and selling Robert to easily clear $15MM in assured cash could be foolhardy. They barely have any cash on the books, with an estimated payroll within the $75MM vary, per RosterResource. That’s half their 2024 payroll. Promoting low on Robert and watching him bounce again to stardom elsewhere could be agonizing for the Sox and their followers.
All of it makes Robert a really troublesome participant to commerce this winter. The Sox don’t have any urgency to shed the comparatively small quantity that continues to be on his contract. Different golf equipment absolutely really feel there’s little sense in buying and selling top-tier prospects for an oft-injured participant coming off a 100-game season that was the least-productive stint of his profession.
The likeliest end result would appear to be a midseason commerce. If Robert bounces again, the Sox can put him again on the block and successfully market two-plus years of his providers. If he continues to battle, they might transfer him for a light-weight return, understanding the eventual chance was that his choice could be purchased out anyhow. Maybe a crew might throw warning to the wind and make a surprisingly sturdy provide for him within the close to future, however that appears unlikely. The Sox did transfer Dylan Stop in spring coaching when his Cactus League efficiency quieted some considerations a couple of pedestrian 2023 season, so it’s potential a giant spring from Robert might garner some consideration. In all chance, although, he appears ticketed to stay on the Sox to open the season, and golf equipment across the recreation will maintain an in depth eye on his early efficiency. If he reveals effectively in April, Chicago GM Chris Getz might comply with in Miami counterpart Peter Bendix’s footsteps and make Robert accessible in late April/early Could — because the Marlins did with Luis Arraez.
