Whereas the e-book isn’t utterly shut on the 2024 Cincinnati Reds, with a 0.3% projected likelihood of creating the postseason coming into this week, solely a plot twist out of left subject may change the story. At 82-80, the 2023 Reds weren’t precisely good, however after coming into the season with a bleak outlook, they comfortably beat most expectations. Provided that their enhancements final yr largely got here from their younger expertise relatively than short-term signings, it wasn’t unreasonable again in March to consider this staff may contend for a postseason berth. 5 months later, because the Reds look extra more likely to play the function of spoiler in September than make it to October, now looks like a superb time to think about the place they need to go from right here.
Step one can be to ask ourselves what have been the cheap expectations for the Reds in 2024. The ZiPS projections gave them an 80-82 document, however with sufficient uncertainty that if issues broke their approach, they might make a playoff push (35.1% odds). One man’s digital monstrosity isn’t the one truthful outlook, after all, however our depth charts and Baseball Prospectus each had Cincinnati in an identical place, at 79 wins.
Proper now, our depth charts and ZiPS have the Reds ending with a 77-85 document, a disappointing consequence, however not precisely a large miss relative to the projections above. If we’re going to determine the place the Reds go from right here, we first have to grasp how they received up to now, and which means trying again on the classes they drew from their 82 wins final yr.
Based mostly on their offseason strikes, it seems the group determined – little question some unknown mixture of possession and the entrance workplace – that the final strategy was to remain the course with their younger expertise and make mid-tier free agent signings to fill the staff’s most urgent holes. The Reds made no vital trades over the winter, except you rely sending pitcher Daniel Duarte to the Rangers for money in January after designating him for project as vital. It wasn’t till almost Opening Day that the staff made a transfer that may have an precise impact on the roster, choosing up Santiago Espinal from the Blue Jays within the aftermath of the Noelvi Marte suspension.
Excluding the Espinal commerce, the gamers signed in free company made up everything of the exterior enhancements from 2023 to 2024. Suffice it to say, I used to be not a fan of the particular signings they made. To sum up my normal emotions on the time, I assumed Jeimer Candelario was the precise participant for the mistaken staff. It doesn’t make a lot sense for a staff overloaded with third basemen to signal a participant who’s most precious as a 3rd baseman after which make him a mediocre first baseman. On the pitching facet, Emilio Pagán was a catastrophe ready to occur, and $13 million was quite a bit to present Nick Martinez. Different pitcher signings made extra sense: Brent Suter was a very good addition and Frankie Montas was an affordable gamble. The signings didn’t go precisely as I anticipated – some have been worse, some have been higher – however they actually didn’t do a lot to enhance the membership.
2023-2024 Free Agent Signings – Cincinnati Reds
| Participant | Projected Depth Chart WAR | 2024 WAR | Depth Chart Last 2024 WAR | Contract AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 1.9 | -0.3 | -0.2 | $15.0M |
| Nick Martinez | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | $13.0M |
| Brent Suter | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | $3.0M |
| Emilio Pagán | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | $8.0M |
| Buck Farmer | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | $2.3M |
| Luke Maile | 0.6 | -0.5 | -0.5 | $3.5M |
| Austin Wynns | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | $900K |
| Frankie Montas | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | $16.0M |
| Justin Wilson | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | $1.5M |
| TOTAL | 7.3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | $63.2M |
As a gaggle, the free brokers have carried out a bit worse than projected, however not alarmingly so. By the top of the yr, we venture these 9 free brokers to be price 5.1 WAR to the Reds, in comparison with the 7.3 WAR that was predicted. Two wins wouldn’t have salvaged Cincinnati’s season.
Accidents to among the younger expertise has actually hindered the Reds. Matt McLain, who made a convincing case for being one of many staff’s foundational skills final yr, injured his shoulder within the spring and has but to play for Cincinnati this season. Christian Encarnacion-Strand didn’t get the prospect to make up for his chilly begin as a result of he underwent season-ending surgical procedure in July after fracturing his proper wrist in Might, and whereas it’s not an damage, the staff went with out Marte for 80 video games after he was suspended for performance-enhancing medication.
Nonetheless, the Reds additionally received some spectacular breakouts on the flip facet to compensate. For as thrilling as they’re, Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene weren’t anticipated to be on this yr’s MVP and Cy Younger races, although that’s the place they stand in late August.
Furthermore, accidents alone didn’t cease Cincinnati in its tracks. I ran the numbers on time misplaced to accidents two weeks in the past, and the Reds ranked eleventh out of 30 groups in potential worth misplaced to damage, at 6.46 wins, proper according to the imply (6.5 wins) and a half-win greater than median (six wins).
That leaves us with the conclusion that the Reds didn’t battle this season as a result of they have been unfortunate; relatively, they did so as a result of they have been a roughly .500 staff by way of expertise and didn’t get fortunate. The trail ahead, then, is for possession and the entrance workplace to acknowledge this to allow them to work to enhance the staff within the offseason as a substitute of staying the course once more and hoping for higher outcomes.
One a part of this yr’s plan — counting on the younger expertise — was justified and is price doing once more subsequent season, so long as the Reds reinforce their core with extra impactful veterans. Wanting on the projections for 2025 now versus the place they have been six months in the past, the Reds have misplaced just a few wins, however their basis continues to be fairly stable.
ZiPS 2025 Now vs. Preseason
(Rhett Lowder just isn’t included right here as a result of he didn’t get a preseason ZiPS projection this yr for 2025, so there can be nothing to check along with his present projection for subsequent season.)
Once I run some very preliminary projections for the NL Central in 2025, primarily based on gamers who’re below staff management for subsequent season, the division appears to be like quite a bit prefer it did on this yr’s the preseason projections, with all 5 groups roughly clustered across the .500 mark. That signifies that, with the precise strikes, the Reds may increase their playoff odds significantly this offseason.
Their plan to paper over holes this season by shifting third basemen round has not been profitable: The staff ranks twenty fifth in outfield WAR and twenty eighth each in first base WAR and designated hitter WAR. Upgrading these positions with gamers who truly play them would go a good distance towards turning issues round. The rotation hasn’t been dangerous this season, however it isn’t ok because it’s at the moment constructed.
It’s price mentioning that the Reds did spend cash on their roster coming into this season, however they only didn’t accomplish that successfully. Signing mid-tier free brokers once more this offseason gained’t treatment the staff’s woes. Sure, possession virtually actually would balk on the thought of giving Juan Soto a clean verify to play for Cincinnati, however it will be much more preposterous to spend the identical quantity to signal six gamers who’re barely above substitute degree, which is sort of what the Reds did final winter.
Wanting forward, regardless that the upcoming class of free brokers isn’t notably deep, Cincinnati’s entrance workplace must strike the precise stability of high quality and amount. Corbin Burnes is likely one of the greatest gamers out there, and the Reds ought to make a severe push to signal him. Blake Snell has been on such a roll after his tough begin to this season that it appears almost sure that he’ll decide out of his Giants contract. The Braves have but to increase Max Fried, so he appears certain without cost company, too. And whereas they may fall quick, why shouldn’t the Reds go after Roki Sasaki if he will get posted this winter? In spite of everything, they made a bid to land Shohei Ohtani again when he was coming over from Japan.
On the offensive facet, Anthony Santander would give the Reds the reputable middle-of-the-order bat within the outfield that they at the moment lack, as would Tyler O’Neill and Teoscar Hernández
We at the moment have the Reds with a assured payroll of just below $50 million for 2025, although that’s not together with arbitration awards. They actually have the flexibility to go after gamers who would make an actual distinction and nonetheless have a payroll nicely under that of the typical staff. A repeat of final winter’s strategy can be a catastrophe; extra of the identical will possible result in extra of the identical. The Reds fairly probably have extra upside than some other staff within the NL Central, however the time’s come for them to select a path relatively than treading water.
