The Orioles ran out the identical three outfielders every Opening Day between 2021 and ’24: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays. And in annually from 2020-23, Mullins, Santander, and Hays have been Baltimore’s three main outfielders. This previous season, nevertheless, Colton Cowser broke out with an outstanding rookie marketing campaign, cementing his place within the outfield at Camden Yards for years to come back. Dealing with a logjam within the lineup, the Orioles dealt Hays to the Phillies forward of the commerce deadline, formally splitting up the Mullins/Santander/Hays triumvirate. Santander may very well be subsequent to go away; after the conclusion of the World Sequence, he’ll change into a free agent. Thus, for the primary time in a very long time, the Orioles’ outfield may look fairly completely different on Opening Day 2025.
There isn’t any doubt that Cowser can have a job within the Orioles’ outfield subsequent season. Not solely did he hit 24 house runs with a 120 wRC+ in 2024, however he did so whereas taking part in sturdy protection. The 24-year-old compiled 11 OAA and three DRS over 809 2/3 innings in left discipline, 310 innings in heart, and 73 innings in proper. He made only one error all yr. Cowser is beneath group management via at the least the 2029 season, and he won’t be eligible for arbitration till at the least 2027.
Mullins must be a lock for the 2025 outfield as nicely, though the Orioles must tender him a contract as he enters his remaining yr of arbitration eligibility. Matt Swartz’s mannequin estimates Mullins would earn roughly $8.7MM subsequent yr, a $2.375MM increase from his $6.325MM wage this season. That’s a cut price for a participant like Mullins, even along with his 2021 All-Star marketing campaign getting smaller and smaller within the rearview mirror. He has been roughly league-average on the plate over the previous two seasons (102 wRC+) whereas offering loads of worth on the bases (51-for-60 in stolen base makes an attempt) and taking part in a premium defensive place. Totally different metrics disagree about his skills in heart discipline, however finally, the variations of WAR at each FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he has been a beneficial contributor. From 2023-24, Mullins compiled 4.2 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR. There’s an opportunity the Orioles would think about shifting Mullins to a nook and giving Cowser the middle discipline job; together with faculty and the minors, Cowser has extra expertise in heart discipline than another place. Mullins and his league-average bat can be much less beneficial in a nook spot, however a $8.7MM wage would nonetheless be a team-friendly value for his companies.
As for the ultimate spot within the outfield, loads of followers would like to see Santander again subsequent season (and for a number of extra to come back), nevertheless it’s unclear how intently the Orioles will pursue the All-Star slugger in free company. They are going to certainly make him the qualifying supply, and he simply as will certainly decline. He’s doubtless in search of a multi-year deal price at the least $20MM per season. Common supervisor Mile Elias is hoping to enhance payroll this winter in his first full offseason working beneath new proprietor David Rubenstein, nevertheless it’s unclear how a lot cash he’ll should work with. Extra to the purpose, Elias would possibly prfer to spend the vast majority of his assets bettering a pitching workers that completed 14th in MLB in ERA and tenth in FanGraphs WAR reasonably than an offense that completed fourth in runs scored and third in wRC+. Santander will likely be an enormous loss for the offense, however ace Corbin Burnes, one other impending free agent, will likely be an excellent greater departure for Elias to handle. With all that stated, the Orioles would possibly follow their inner choices to exchange Santander in 2025.
Baltimore would love for 25-year-old Heston Kjerstad to step up and fill that position. The lefty batter put up ludicrous numbers within the minors this previous season, batting .300 with a .998 OPS and 152 wRC+ in 56 video games at Triple-A. His massive league numbers (.745 OPS, 116 wRC+ in 39 video games) weren’t unhealthy, particularly not for a rookie, however a few of the underlying metrics recommend he’s due for regression (.301 xwOBA in comparison with a .327 wOBA), and his 28.9% strikeout fee was concerningly excessive for a hitter who wasn’t displaying off plus energy or plate self-discipline. Furthermore, his outfield protection wasn’t notably spectacular in a small pattern measurement (-1 DRS, -1 FRV). Kjerstad has the instruments to be a terrific participant, however he’ll to take a step ahead on the plate if he’s going to supply above-average worth as a defensively-limited nook outfielder.
One other choice to play some nook outfield for the Orioles subsequent yr may very well be Coby Mayo, who’s at the moment the group’s high prospect based on Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. All through his temporary skilled profession, Mayo has principally performed third base. Other than his sturdy arm, nevertheless, he has by no means graded out as a top-notch defender on the scorching nook. So, with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already entrenched within the Orioles’ infield and Jackson Holliday not going anyplace, Mayo’s future would possibly should be some place else. He has expertise taking part in first base as nicely, and that may very well be his long-term place. However contemplating his terrific throwing arm, it is smart that he would give the outfield a strive. To that time, Elias not too long ago recommended proper discipline may very well be an possibility for the 22-year-old, although he made it clear the group nonetheless views him as an infielder, and primarily a primary baseman, going ahead (per
Two extra inner choices to remember are prospects Dylan Beavers and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers, 23, is the group’s No. 5 prospect based on FanGraphs, No. 6 based on MLB Pipeline, and No. 7 based on Baseball America. He hit nicely sufficient at Double-A in 2024 (15 HR, 118 wRC+ in 119 video games) to earn a quick promotion to Triple-A on the finish of the season. He’s additionally a plus runner with the potential to be a succesful massive league heart fielder. Bradfield, 22, is a couple of months youthful and slightly additional away from the majors; he moved up from Excessive-A to Double-A this previous August. Nonetheless, most sources agree he’s the marginally extra promising prospect. FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline have him at No. 4, whereas Baseball America has him at No. 6. He boasts 80-grade pace and has the abilities to be an elite defensive heart fielder. As for his bat, he has little energy to talk of, so he’ll must show he can keep his spectacular bat-to-ball abilities in opposition to harder competitors. Neither Beavers nor Bradfield wants safety from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and neither is a possible candidate to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. Nonetheless, their relative proximity to the majors may very well be a cause why the Orioles keep away from signing a free agent outfielder to a multi-year deal.
Lastly, the Orioles must resolve whether or not or to not choose up Ryan O’Hearn’s $8MM membership possibility for 2025. O’Hearn is primarily a primary baseman and DH, however he performed 27 video games within the outfield final season. The 31-year-old slashed .264/.334/.427 with 15 house runs and a 119 wRC+ in 2024, good for 1.7 fWAR. If he can repeat that efficiency subsequent season, an $8MM wage can be greater than truthful, however with Kjerstad and Mayo in want of taking part in time, the Orioles would possibly favor to spend that $8MM elsewhere.
Picture courtesy of USA At present Sports activities.
