I used to be writing from the guts. When the Nationals designated Victor Robles for project again in Might, I wrote about what it was wish to anticipate him to make it to the large leagues; after which, as soon as he arrived, to attend for him to show right into a star; after which, when it grew to become clear that he wasn’t going to show right into a star, to attend for him to show right into a stable contributor; after which, because the probability of that end result grew increasingly faint, simply to attend.
Followers reserve a particular form of affection for gamers like Robles. They don’t do it on goal; it’s simply how folks are inclined to work. Superstars, with their dependable excellence, are simple to like. They’re huge, heat Labrador retrievers with their tails waggling like Gary Sheffield’s bat as they wait impatiently so that you can open the entrance door each night time. They provide you precisely what you need, and the love they encourage is gorgeous and easy. Once they transfer on to a different group, the loss you are feeling is deep, sure, however its edges are clearly outlined as a result of one thing pure has been taken from you.
While you’ve been watching and ready and hoping for a participant to determine issues out for the higher a part of the last decade, the emotions concerned are loads messier. Even when your love and your loss aren’t as profound, their edges are much more ragged. You’ve spent years pinballing between highs and lows, hopes and fears, anxiousness and pleasure and despair, generally abruptly. In different phrases, it’s much more like actual life and actual love. By the point a participant like that strikes on, you’ve invested method an excessive amount of of your well-being in them to easily cease caring. It’s laborious to think about a single Nationals fan anyplace who wasn’t rooting for Robles to lastly determine issues out as soon as the Mariners gave him the change of surroundings he so clearly wanted, who wasn’t really completely happy to see him get off to a sizzling begin in Seattle. However all of us have our limits.
Again on August 6, over at Baseball Prospectus, Mikey Ajeto broke down all of the mechanical changes that Robles has made since he joined Seattle. (Sure, the identical Mikey Ajeto who writes solely about pitchers. Truthfully, the largest miracle that Robles has carried out isn’t magically going supernova the second that he turned the W on his hat the other way up; it’s getting Ajeto to concentrate to a hitter for as soon as.) He’s dropped his arms, ditched his leg kick, and added a scissor kick and a mini-squat earlier than the pitch. As a result of Ajeto coated these extra technical matters, I can proceed to concentrate on the surface-level numbers. And you realize what occurred to the surface-level numbers after the publication of that article, which was totally dedicated to documenting Robles’s sudden enchancment because the plate? They didn’t simply hold getting higher, they exploded.
I used to be wishing as laborious as anybody for Robles to succeed with the Mariners, however I didn’t imply like this. I used to be thrilled to see him land a two-year extension value a assured $9.75 million, however he wasn’t alleged to immediately flip into the very best participant in baseball, like transferring transferring from a district named Washington to an precise state named Washington was all it took to interrupt a robust curse forged by some previous Issaquah-based witch who fell into the Reflecting Pool throughout her mock trial staff’s journey to DC in ninth grade and by no means bought over the humiliation. And no, I’m not exaggerating. From June 5 to August 17, Robles turned his season round, operating a 118 wRC+. Since August 18, Robles has actually been the very best participant in baseball: He’s put up a 230 wRC+ and accrued 1.8 WAR, greater than whichever Cooperstown-bound MVP candidate you’d care to call. Positive, it’s truthful to level out that he’s operating a comically excessive .527 BABIP over that interval, however his .386 xwOBA nonetheless ranks nineteenth amongst certified gamers throughout that stretch. It’s beginning to seem like the only clarification for why Robles by no means lived as much as his potential is that cherry blossoms are his private kryptonite.
Someway Robles left this ragged gap within the hearts of Nationals followers, however arrived in Seattle a gleaming famous person. The chaos has solely reared its head these days. Robles is taking part in by means of a hip concern, and left his final two video games on account of completely different accidents: leg soreness on Sunday and a proper hand contusion after getting hit by a pitch to steer off final night time’s sport, an 11-2 loss to the Yankees. Earlier than Robles was eliminated towards New York, his wildness on the basepaths lastly caught up with the Mariners, with whom he’d beforehand gone 25-for-25 on stolen base makes an attempt. He was caught stealing residence within the backside of the primary inning, taking the bat out of Justin Turner’s arms with the bases loaded, two outs, and a 3-0 rely.
I’m not saying all that is going to final, irrespective of how a lot Robles loves the Puget Sound. Since he arrived in Seattle, he’s run a 34.4% hard-hit price and an 86.7-mph common exit velocity. The previous is significantly better than Robles has put up in any earlier season, however the latter isn’t and each are nonetheless effectively beneath league common. The true change is his barrel price of 8.6%, which is miles above something he’s completed in earlier years. However remember the fact that we’re speaking about simply 13 barrels out of 151 balls in play, and neither his launch angle nor his GB/FB price represents a lot of a departure from his profession numbers. We’ve moved previous any-batter-can-do-just-about-anything-over-60-plate-appearances territory, however we’re not all that far off both.
Robles has made some honest-to-goodness changes to his swing which have had a right away, dramatic impact — frankly, the impact was so instant and so dramatic that the Nationals must be wanting carefully at each single a type of changes and asking themselves what the Mariners noticed that they didn’t — and we must always most likely regulate our priors going ahead. However I haven’t seen something (but) to persuade me that he’s going to maintain operating a BABIP above .500 from right here on out. Additional, Robles has been coping with a hip concern along with the leg soreness (which is a separate ailment) and the hand damage that compelled his early exit from the final two video games. As somebody who spent one thing like 1 / 4 of my life rooting for Robles to lastly put all of it collectively, I sincerely hope his nagging accidents develop into not more than simply that, and that when Robles lastly does come all the way down to earth, he finds a cushty spot that’s located effectively above sea stage. However so long as he’s spending complete months with a wRC+ above 200, I reserve the fitting to be just a little jealous.
