Possibly the Orioles similar to purchasing for pitchers in Florida. Days after Baltimore acquired Zach Eflin from Tampa Bay, Ken Rosenthal reported that the crew has traded for Marlins left-handed starter Trevor Rogers in change for Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. The Orioles have chosen the contract of Terrin Vavra, who’s working a 112 wRC+ with Triple-A Norfolk this season, to take Norby’s place on the massive league roster. (Shortly after this text was filed, Jeff Passan reported that the Orioles have additionally acquired Eloy Jiménez from the White Sox, whereas C. Trent Rosecrans reported that Austin Slater is headed from the Reds to the land of Outdated Bay; Michael Baumann will write up these transactions shortly.)
On its face, this looks as if both a fantastic get for Miami, or an indication that the worth for beginning pitching is sky excessive. Final April, Rogers suffered a biceps pressure that ended his season after simply 4 begins. This season, he’s stayed wholesome and thrown 105.1 innings, however the outcomes haven’t precisely been there. Following his breakout rookie marketing campaign in 2021, Rogers is 7-22 with a 4.92 ERA and 4.36 FIP. This season, these figures are 4.53 and 4.42.
Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice had Norby nineteenth as a 40 FV prospect after they ranked Baltimore’s high prospects in June. Stowers not qualifies as a prospect, however this season he ran a 115 wRC+ in Triple-A, adopted by a BABIP-fueled 119 wRC+ over 19 video games with the Orioles. If that value feels steep, you’re not flawed, however there’s loads to remember. First, Baltimore has nice organizational depth, and there wasn’t essentially a spot for Norby and Stowers. Second, Rogers is simply 26 years previous, has two extra years of crew management, and was as lately as 2021 an All-Star who completed second in Nationwide League Rookie of the Yr voting. Nonetheless, that is the kind of commerce that makes you assume the Orioles will need to have seen one thing they thought they may repair. The one bars on Rogers’ Statcast sliders that aren’t a scary shade of blue are those for his 47% groundball charge and his 6.7-foot extension (which tends to occur if you’re 6-foot-5). To date this season, 82 pitchers have thrown not less than 100 innings. Right here’s how Rogers ranks amongst them in a handful of metrics. I’ve gone forward and highlighted each stat the place he ranks within the backside 10:
Trevor Rogers 2024 Stats and Ranks
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA | WHIP | Okay%-BB% | HH% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | 4.53 | 4.84 | 4.42 | 4.57 | 4.75 | 1.53 | 8.3 | 43.5 |
| Rank | 71 | 73 | 66 | 75 | 76 | 82 | 78 | 76 |
So yeah, that’s loads of yellow. Proper off the bat, you would possibly discover that Rogers ranks lifeless final in WHIP and within the backside 11 in all places however FIP. He’s been higher of late, with a 3.17 ERA over his final 9 begins, however we shouldn’t take that as an indication that he’s all of the sudden figured issues out. His 4.23 FIP over that stretch is only a hair under his season mark, and his 4.75 xFIP is definitely larger.
In Rogers’ improbable 2021, he was throwing his four-seamer practically 58% of the time, and based on Baseball Savant, it was price 16 runs, making it the Tenth-most priceless pitch in all of baseball. He was additionally throwing it 94.5 mph. This yr, he’s throwing it 92.0 mph and it’s been price -2 runs. As such, he’s throwing it lower than a 3rd of the time and has ramped up his sinker utilization to take its place. One fascinating factor: Rogers’ velocity isn’t down throughout the board. Whereas his fastballs have misplaced a couple of extraordinarily vital ticks, he’s truly throwing his slider and his changeup more durable. Rogers’ changeup grades out properly by stuff fashions, however hasn’t had the outcomes to indicate for it. Having simply 6 mph of separation between his fastballs and the changeup would possibly very properly be hurting him:
When a crew acquires a struggling pitcher like this, the simplest method for them to impact a change is to easily alter his pitch combine. It’s not instantly clear to me what the Orioles would possibly change, but it surely’s solely potential that they don’t need Rogers to maintain throwing his slider, his greatest bat-missing pitch, lower than his three different choices.
We shouldn’t be asking ourselves whether or not or how the Orioles can get Rogers again to his 2021 kind. For one factor, that was three years and some accidents in the past. For one more, Rogers ran a 5% HR/FB charge that season, which meant that his 2.64 ERA got here off a 3.54 xFIP that’s a lot nearer to his profession mark. It will be unreasonable to anticipate him to run a 2.64 ERA once more. Eno Sarris posited that the Orioles are both merely searching for innings, or that they’ll strive placing Rogers within the bullpen, the place his fastball might tick up nearer to his season-high of 95.8 mph. The previous path would presumably push Albert Suárez right into a bullpen function, the place he has excelled thus far this season. Suárez has a 0.90 ERA over 10 innings as a reliever and a 4.03 ERA in 67 innings as a starter, although we’re speaking about small samples, and BABIP appears to be enjoying a big half in that exact cut up.
It additionally appears potential that the Orioles are enjoying the lengthy sport right here. In the event that they see one thing they will repair in Rogers, mechanical or in any other case, then they only gave up two prospects who’re possible blocked for a 26-year-old who’s simply coming into his arbitration years. Possibly they anticipate Rogers to assist them this season, or possibly they assume that they will get him to the pitching lab through the offseason and add some velocity or assist his slider regain a number of the drop that it had in current seasons. If he doesn’t enhance, he’s nonetheless a comparatively low-cost back-of-the-rotation starter, in change for 2 prospects who have been possible blocked.
I discussed earlier that Eric and Travis had Norby ranked nineteenth as a 40 FV prospect after they revealed the Orioles listing in June. You would possibly discover that he was ranked Tenth final season and that he’s at the moment ranked fifth by MLB Pipeline. Eric is low on Norby, largely due to protection. “He’s a really tough second base defender, with fringe vary, fingers, and actions,” he wrote again in June. Norby has solely performed second base with Baltimore, however in Norfolk, he truly spent extra time within the outfield this season. He’ll be much more priceless if he’s able to enjoying second slightly than being restricted to a nook outfield spot. Norby is 24 with 1,050 Triple-A plate appearances to his identify. His bat might be big-league prepared proper now, however Miami may very well be a tough park for him. “He has pole-to-pole energy,” Eric wrote in June, “pulling hanging breaking balls and spraying fastballs to the alternative area. Norby doesn’t have large uncooked juice — actually, his measurable energy is considerably underwhelming. He’s extra about constantly creating playable in-game energy with swing loft.” Spacious loanDepot Park is probably not the best match for a participant with that profile.
As a slugging nook outfielder, the left-handed Stowers has lengthy been an odd man out within the extraordinarily talent-rich Orioles group. He reached Triple-A in 2021 and bought his first style of the majors in 2022, however he’s now 26 years previous and has made simply 168 main league plate appearances regardless of working an .870 OPS in 1,047 Triple-A PAs. This season, he’s been hitting the ball very onerous, however he’s additionally been whiffing practically a 3rd of the time each in Baltimore and Norfolk. Stowers solely has two choices left, and transferring to a crew that has room to let him play day by day could be simply what he wants. He could properly find yourself as a platoon bat or a Quad-A participant, however he’s possible as prepared as he’ll ever be for an actual likelihood.
