On this week’s mailbag, I focus on Juan Soto’s free agent contract, the Rangers’ 2025 rotation, potential matches in a Bo Bichette commerce, outlooks subsequent yr for the Tigers and Cardinals, and rather more.
Jason asks:
Juan Soto is clearly going to be the speak of the offseason. He has additionally undoubtedly confirmed an enormous asset in serving to Aaron Choose be walked much less (even when hitting in entrance of him). What contract does MLBTR predict Soto will land this offseason in years & {dollars}?
Bob asks:
I’ve watched Juan Soto so much this yr and am enthusiastic about execs and cons of the Yankees re-signing (or every other workforce signing) him to a long-term free agent contract throughout the offseason. He’s clearly an important hitter and nice teammate however as I’ve watched him, my (admittedly armchair) impression is that he’s an excellent, however not nice defender and he’s not significantly quick. Primarily based on that, I’m wondering how he’ll age and what he’ll appear like as he progresses into his mid-30s. I think, at age 25, he will probably be in search of a 12+ yr contract and I’m not certain what a 37-year-old (or perhaps a 33-year-old) Soto will appear like.
I used to be speaking about this with my brother-in-law earlier this summer season and he thought that Soto may signal a shorter-term contract with the Yankees due to the “intangibles” of enjoying in New York however I’m uncertain about that and suspect that Soto will go for the longest contract and largest {dollars}, irrespective of who gives it. My concern is that Soto will change into one other Robinson Cano – not so fairly as he ages. Then again, the WAR that he’ll produce for the following 5-8 years is likely to be value consuming 4 or 5 much less productive years. Ideas?
Nobody is aware of how a lot Soto will get, and nothing is assured.
I keep in mind when the “good” free agent hit the market six years in the past. Bryce Harper was a Boras Company consumer going into his age-26 season. I am going to admit that his 2018 contract yr was not practically as spectacular as Soto’s, and Harper had not quieted modest issues about his protection to the diploma Soto has. However Harper was a Corridor of Fame observe famous person in his prime, similar to Soto.
At numerous factors main as much as Harper’s free company, milestones like $400MM and even $500MM had been bandied about. After a lot debate, MLBTR settled on a 14-year, $420MM contract prediction. We felt Harper would fly previous Giancarlo Stanton‘s $325MM report, which had not been achieved on the open market. We additionally thought Harper would sacrifice a report common annual worth, “settling” for a $30MM AAV that might trigger much less aggressive stability tax ache.
As a substitute, Harper’s market was inexplicably chilly given his observe report, ceiling, and age. He signed with the Phillies in late February, accepting a non-superstar $25.38MM AAV over 13 years as a manner of inching previous Stanton’s whole by a mere $5MM or 1.5%. So we ended up being $90MM excessive on our prediction, however time has proven that many groups that had been unwilling to prime the Phillies’ provide would have benefited from doing so.
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