Hey there, and welcome to a phase that I’m hoping to show right into a recurring characteristic. Final week, I began delving into the person event-level predictions constructed into our pitch grading mannequin, PitchingBot. I made some broad generalizations concerning the sorts of pitches most probably to be hit for dwelling runs after which checked out which pitchers threw them most frequently. I gathered some details about these pitches (fastballs, poorly positioned, in hitter-friendly counts however not 3-0), and tried to determine what that meant for dwelling run charge.
Extra particularly, it’s enjoyable to take a look at these dangerous pitches, and it’s enjoyable for me to see how few of them truly lead to homers. The 50 pitches most probably to be hit for a house run surrendered one homer mixed. The highest 100 resulted in solely three homers, whereas the following 100 resulted in six homers. There’s a ton of variability, however at its core, baseball remains to be a recreation of failure – even when a pitcher does the worst factor they probably can, hitters principally don’t punish them.
To that finish, I’m going to strive a brand new weekly roundup: varied meatball-related objects that present who’s been distinctive in a single route or one other over the previous week. On condition that it’s principally a listing of issues with out a ton of study vital, I’m going to start out out by attempting so as to add it on high of my regular schedule, and I’ll additionally use this to replace a few of my favourite junk stats (whomps per whiff, Kimbrels, and so on.). If it’s common, nice! If not, hey, it’s a protracted baseball season and you need to maintain attempting issues. Anyway, let’s get going.
Meatball of the Week
We have now to cease assembly like this, Randy. After I topped a single pitch the meatball of the yr final week, Randy Arozarena was the batter who obtained that most-smashable providing, and he took it. This week, he hacked at Beau Brieske’s 3-1 providing, however might solely foul it off.
A fast test on why the mannequin thought that pitch was so smashable: a mix of rely, velocity, location, and form. Brieske’s fastball is a bit higher than common, however this explicit one wasn’t. For no matter motive – possibly he was guiding it in because of the rely, possibly he simply didn’t execute his pitch – it was 3.5 mph slower than his common fastball. It got here throughout a hitter’s rely and was thrown to a hittable location with out a bizarre or outstanding form. That’s the recipe for a crushable pitch, even when Arozarena couldn’t do something with it.
Italian Grandmother Award for Most Meatballs Served
Valente Bellozo, Miami Marlins
This class is straightforward: Each week, the Italian Grandmother Award goes to the participant who threw essentially the most meatballs over the earlier seven days. Valente Bellozo goes to be a daily contender for this honor as a result of he throws a fastball that tops out within the decrease 90s and averages 89.7 mph. He throws that fastball fairly ceaselessly, and will get by on mushy contact because of his impeccable command. Nonetheless, plenty of his fastballs additionally appear to be this:
Bellozo has been wonderful in his rookie yr; by means of six begins, he has a 2.45 ERA and three.53 FIP. However the good occasions most likely gained’t final. He simply bought completed posting a 5.87 FIP in Triple-Some time permitting 1.82 homers per 9 innings. He gave up three warning observe blasts to heart area and a homer this week whereas placing out eight over two begins. The Marlins are determined for pitching in the mean time and Bellozo is succeeding, so I’m positive he’ll get tons of rope. However for those who’re in search of the most probably pitcher to have a real blow-up begin, he’d be my choose proper now.
Wholesome Food plan Award for Most Pitches With no Meatball
Pablo López, Minnesota Twins
Nothing actually to see right here. Pablo López made two begins and didn’t throw a single pitch that PitchingBot thought was 3% more likely to flip into a house run. He did give one up, but it surely was to Bobby Witt Jr., and typically you simply get crushed by a celebrity. Honorable point out to Logan Webb, who made just one begin final week (104 pitches) and continued to stymie hitters. He’ll characteristic in a while the season-long replace; for now, let’s simply say that Webb doesn’t make many errors.
Now, a tiny little bit of analysis to additional clarify why I’m these pitches. First, the meatballs this week bought crushed. There have been 502 pitches that crossed the three% homer chance threshold, and batters hit 21 dwelling runs towards them, 4.2% of the time. The mannequin would have predicted 18 homers, so we’re working barely sizzling. Just about any means you slice it, this week’s homers outstripped their meatball likelihood, which could be a product of the time of yr as a lot as anything. I’ll keep watch over that because the season wears on.
It appears fairly clear that meatball charges don’t correlate overly properly with single-game outcomes. Bellozo was nice in his two begins final week regardless of lobbing 80-handle fastballs in there. George Kirby didn’t throw a single pitch that the mannequin categorized as a meatball, and he gave up 4 homers and eight earned runs.
Season-Lengthy Meatball Standouts
Amongst pitchers who’ve thrown 1,000 complete pitches within the majors this yr, Joey Estes stands alone with 80 meatballs on only one,369 pitches, a 5.8% charge. Webb is on the opposite finish of the spectrum with solely 5 meatballs out of two,543 pitches, and imagine it or not, Blake Snell is second with solely three meatballs in 1,188 pitches. Snell’s extra of a walks man than a homers man, so even together with his abysmal begin to the season, he’s giving up solely 0.71 dwelling runs per 9 innings.
Whomps per Whiff Leaders
This statistic does a reasonably good job of highlighting nice hitters, ones who mix energy with a eager sense of the strike zone. It’s additionally pretty results-oriented; you’ll be able to’t get on the record with out barreling up a ton of balls, and for those who’re hitting a ton of barrels, you’re nearly definitely hitting for energy. So uh, yeah, this record is made up of all good hitters having good seasons bar one man:
Whomps per Whiff Leaders, 2024
Stephenson hasn’t been a catastrophe or something, he’s simply not on anybody else right here’s stage. Total, posting a excessive whomps per whiff means you’re a very good hitter. Right here’s the total leaderboard on your perusal.
Kimbrels Leaderboard
A Kimbrel is an look with a unfavorable FIP; in different phrases, an look when the pitcher strikes out at the very least 1.5 batters per inning with out permitting any walks, HBPs, or dwelling runs. It’s fairly shut to simply being a listing of excellent relievers, however the high three are shocking:
Kimbrel Leaderboard, 2024
Like WPW, Kimbrels principally inform you what you already know: These pitchers are good. Mason Miller is clearly on there. Emmanuel Clase isn’t far outdoors the highest 10, and the stat undersells Clase as a result of he additionally permits extraordinarily weak contact. Right here’s the entire record for those who really feel like looking it.
That’s this week in meatballs, whomps per whiff, and Kimbrels. I hope you loved this semi-rigorous, GIF-heavy, and information-dense roundup of the bizarre statistics in baseball I’m maintaining a tally of.
