The Yankees’ Refusal to Open the Door for Jasson Domínguez May Show Expensive

By this time a yr in the past, the Yankees had been merely enjoying out the string, battling to keep away from their first shedding season since 1992. Their September was briefly enlivened by the arrival of Jasson Domínguez, a switch-hitting 20-year-old heart fielder who homered off Justin Verlander in his first plate look, however “The Martian” — so named for his otherworldly assortment of instruments — tore his proper ulnar collateral ligament after enjoying simply eight video games. His Tommy John surgical procedure and projected lack of availability early this season led the Yankees to commerce for Alex Verdugo, whom they’ve caught with as their on a regular basis left fielder regardless of his more and more conspicuous lack of manufacturing. As they run neck-and-neck with the Orioles within the AL East race, they’ve bypassed a golden alternative to improve their lineup.

On Tuesday evening in Arlington, the Yankees blew a 4-0 eighth-inning lead, shedding 7-4 when nearer Clay Holmes blew his main league-leading eleventh save by retiring simply one of many 5 batters he confronted, capped by a walk-off grand slam by Wyatt Langford. The loss, the Yankees’ fifth in seven video games, knocked them out of first place for the primary time since August 20; at 80-59, they’re now half a recreation behind the Orioles (81-59). Whereas the Holmes saga is a narrative for one more day, it shares with the Verdugo/Domínguez state of affairs the Yankees’ cussed refusal to alter what isn’t working within the midst of a playoff race, one the place a first-round bye is at stake. In each circumstances — and in others all through his seven-year tenure — supervisor Aaron Boone has publicly prevented acknowledging gamers’ struggles, sounding notes of Pollyanna-ish optimism that will have earned him loyalty throughout the Yankees’ clubhouse (and apparently the remainder of the group), however too usually seem divorced from actuality.

Within the case of the offense, the Yankees lead the AL in scoring (5.09 runs per recreation) and wRC+ (118), however that’s largely a mirrored image of the unimaginable, historic contributions of the majors’ high two hitters by wRC+, particularly Aaron Decide (.324/.457/.706, 217 wRC+) and Juan Soto (.291/.419/.582, 181 wRC+). Solely three different regulars have a wRC+ of 100 or higher: Austin Wells, who’s doing about 60% of the catching work; Giancarlo Stanton, who missed over 5 weeks in June and July as a consequence of a left hamstring pressure; and Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has performed all of 25 video games for the Yankees since being acquired on July 27. In addition to Decide and Soto, their different three gamers with not less than 561 plate appearances every have a wRC+ beneath 100, particularly second baseman Gleyber Torres (96), shortstop Anthony Volpe (95 wRC+), and Verdugo (84 wRC+). Volpe’s protection is robust sufficient that he ranks third on the group with 3.6 WAR, Torres has hit for a 115 wRC+ within the second half, and Chisholm has shored up their once-dismal third base manufacturing, however first base has been a further drag on the offense, with Anthony Rizzo, Ben Rice, DJ LeMahieu et al combining for only a 74 wRC+ and -1.3 WAR.

The Yankees acquired the then-27-year-old Verdugo in a uncommon commerce with the Pink Sox on December 5. It was a busy week for common supervisor Brian Cashman, who paused talks with the Padres relating to Soto lengthy sufficient to shut the Boston deal, then accomplished the seven-player Soto blockbuster the subsequent day. Even when Verdugo’s ceiling was as a league-average participant, the reasoning went, the Yankees had netted -0.3 WAR from their left fielders in 2023, and -0.8 WAR from all of their outfielders in addition to Decide, who had been restricted to 106 video games by a proper massive toe damage. An outfield with two generational sluggers may stand up to a league-average third.

Which isn’t to say that Verdugo was precisely league common. The previous High 100 prospect (no. 48 in 2018, however right down to no. 117 in ’19, each occasions as a 50-FV prospect) hit for a 112 wRC+ with 2.1 WAR in 106 video games as a 23-year-old rookie with the Dodgers in 2019. The next spring, he was the centerpiece of the return within the Mookie Betts commerce, and his 125 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR within the abbreviated 2020 season made for a promising starting amid what was in any other case an unfathomable transfer.

Whereas he cracked our Commerce Worth checklist at no. 35 in 2021, by that time Verdugo was already stagnating. From 2021–23, he netted simply 4.3 WAR for the Pink Sox, hitting a tepid .277/.334/.417 (102 wRC+) in 1,850 PA. He by no means hit greater than 13 homers in a season, struggled in opposition to lefties regardless of ample alternative (68 wRC+ in 532 PA), and turned in uneven protection metrics (5.5 UZR, 5 DRS, -9 FRV), primarily within the corners. He fell off our Commerce Worth checklist as shortly as he had appeared, and wore out his welcome in Boston. In 2023, supervisor Alex Cora benched him twice, as soon as for an absence of hustle whereas operating right into a essential out, and as soon as for exhibiting up late, apparently not for the primary time.

By 2023, when he hit for only a 98 wRC+, Verdugo’s inventory had fallen sufficient to foist him upon a division rival, albeit for a strong return — righties Richard Fitts, Nicholas Judice, and Greg Weissert — on condition that he had only one yr of membership management remaining. That stated, of that group, solely Fitts cracked Boston’s High Prospects checklist, as a 40-FV starter (Weissert, beforehand a 40-FV prospect, amassed an excessive amount of massive league time to qualify as a rookie). Boone sounded notably upbeat relating to the newcomer. “He’s a extremely good two-way participant — defends effectively within the corners and clearly [has a] actually good bat-to-ball [ability], left-handed,” he advised reporters. “I really feel like there’s an edge he performs the sport with, so I’m enthusiastic about this.”

Verdugo began sturdy, hitting .267/.358/.446 (127 wRC+) with 4 homers in March and April, however he hasn’t hit for greater than an 89 wRC+ in any full calendar month since:

Verdugo’s 84 wRC+ is the eighth-lowest amongst batting title qualifiers, with 5 of the gamers beneath him not less than enjoying positions of higher defensive accountability; all have the next WAR mark than Verdugo’s 0.6. Measured from Could 1, Verdugo’s 72 wRC+ is the fifth-lowest amongst qualifiers and the worst amongst left fielders. Both method, these are objectively horrible numbers for a nook outfielder on a group with championship aspirations, notably a participant to whom the group has no dedication past this yr.

To be truthful, whereas his 49.1% groundball charge is his highest since 2021, Verdugo is making considerably higher contact than his numbers counsel, and falling in need of his Statcast anticipated numbers. However these are nothing to write down house about, and symbolize a decline from the previous two years:

Verdugo’s hard-hit and barrel charges, in addition to his xSLG and xwOBA, rank wherever from the twenty seventh to thirty eighth percentiles. There’s no pattern along with his batted ball stats to counsel he’s immediately turned a nook:

Even with good protection (7 DRS, 3.4 UZR, 3 FRV), Verdugo has been barely price greater than half a win. As for Domínguez, as a result of he signed for a group file $5.1 million bonus on July 2, 2019, he “immediately grew to become one of the vital celebrated Yankees prospects in latest reminiscence,” as Baseball America wrote. His arrival was hotly anticipated, although heading into 2023 he was “merely” fiftieth on our High 100 Prospects checklist and third on the Yankees checklist as a switch-hitting 50-FV prospect. He’s at the moment no. 27 on The Board, nonetheless as a 50-FV prospect.

As a result of Domínguez break up his 2022 season between Low-A Tampa and Excessive-A Hudson Valley earlier than ending with a 10-game cameo at Double-A Somerset, he didn’t determine within the Yankees’ rapid plans for ’23. Returning to Somerset, he hit .254/.367/.414 (118 wRC+) in 109 video games, with dramatic enchancment from the primary half to the second. Because the Yankees’ season slipped away in August, they started turning over their roster, a course of that included releasing Josh Donaldson after he’d accomplished a rehab task and letting Harrison Bader depart by way of waivers. After Domínguez laid waste to the Worldwide League in a nine-game cease at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre (.419/.514/.581), he obtained the decision, and crushed a three-run, 360-foot reverse discipline house run off Verlander in his first plate appearances; at 20 years and 206 days, he grew to become the youngest Yankee and fifth-youngest participant total to homer in such trend.

Domínguez added three extra homers in his subsequent seven video games, hitting .258/.303/.677 by way of 31 PA, all whereas enjoying by way of discomfort in his proper (throwing) elbow. When he struggled to hit the ball laborious throughout batting apply, the Yankees despatched him for an MRI, which revealed the tear. He underwent Tommy John surgical procedure on September 20; the process was anticipated to maintain him out of motion for 9 to 10 months. He started his rehab task with Tampa on Could 14, simply in need of eight months from his surgical procedure, and moved as much as Somerset after 4 video games; he DHed for his first 10 video games between the 2 stops earlier than returning to heart discipline on Could 29.

On June 4, Domínguez returned to Scranton, the place he hit .389/.405/.639 in his first 9 video games earlier than being sidelined by a strained indirect for about six weeks, from mid-June to late July. He hasn’t proven as a lot energy since returning, and has hit .299/.357/.455 (112 wRC+) in 168 PA at Scranton total, and .333/.379/.519 in 58 PA since his one-game cameo with the Yankees; although extra skilled in heart, he’s performed 52 video games in left over the previous two seasons. Allowed to roster a twenty seventh participant for his or her Little League Basic recreation at Williamsport on August 18, the group referred to as him up and began him in left discipline. He went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and a groundout, then returned to Scranton.

The Yankees may have tabbed Domínguez on September 1, when groups had been allowed so as to add one place participant and one pitcher, however as a substitute they referred to as up Duke Ellis, an 26-year-old lefty-swinging outfielder who handed by way of the White Sox, Mets, and Mariners’ organizations this yr earlier than being plucked off waivers by the Yankees on August 26; he’s a pinch-running/defensive substitute kind who performed eight video games and stole 4 bases whereas going 0-for-4 with Chicago. As he was on the 40-man roster earlier than September 1, Domínguez remains to be postseason-eligible, however the determination to not promote him has opened the group as much as widespread criticism. Boone has defended the non-move in typical trend, pointing to “a variety of actually good at-bats and a few robust matchups in Washington” for Verdugo, as if a three-game sequence in opposition to the league’s third-worst group final week outweighed 4 months of substitute stage play.

Concerning Domínguez, Boone stated this:

“When he comes up right here, you’re going to wish to play him day-after-day. He’ll proceed to stay in that dialog. During the last couple of weeks, he’s beginning to play effectively from getting back from the indirect damage. Robust name proper now. It doesn’t imply that it received’t change in a few days, every week, two weeks, no matter it’s. But it surely’s necessary for him to proceed to play proper now.”

To those eyes, “received’t change in a few days” reads like a supervisor who is aware of the goal date for the participant’s call-up however received’t publicly reveal it, lest the group be accused of service time shenanigans. MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch was among the many Yankees beat writers performing some math:

Jasson Dominguez will retain his rookie standing for 2025 supplied he doesn’t exceed 130 profession at-bats (he has 35 proper now). Maintaining his rookie standing for ’25 permits the Yankees to obtain a draft choose after the primary spherical in 2026 if Dominguez wins the 2025 AL Rookie of the…

— Bryan Hoch ?? (@BryanHoch) August 30, 2024

Nevertheless, as Baseball America’s JJ Cooper and Matt Eddy and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner have famous, the Yankees wouldn’t qualify to obtain a Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) draft choose if Domínguez had been to win Rookie of the Yr in 2025 as a result of he’s already amassed over 60 days of service time, as he was on the most important league IL whereas recovering from surgical procedure; solely when his rehab clock ran out on June 12, simply earlier than his indirect pressure, was he formally optioned. Domínguez will stay rookie eligible subsequent season if he finishes 2024 with fewer than 45 days on the lively roster (by our depend, he has 11) and 130 at-bats (as famous above, he has 35). “The one service time profit the Yankees may get with having Domínguez stay within the minor leagues is retaining out of the Tremendous Two designation,” wrote Kirschner. “That may be a stretch if it had been a consideration for the Yankees.”

Nonetheless, the opening within the lineup persists, and the Yankees’ complacency in the direction of it’s a reward to the Orioles as the 2 groups battle for seeding. Whereas there’s no assure that Domínguez would outproduce Verdugo, the incumbent has set a ridiculously low bar to clear, and there’s no good motive to not handle certainly one of their many issues by giving the rookie a glance.