The White Sox Are Collapsing Towards Immortality

The 2024 season began completely terribly for the White Sox. After 25 video games, the group’s document stood at 3-22, thanks largely to an anemic offense that hardly scored two runs per sport. On the time – the Sox have been 3-21 after I wrote the piece – I posed the query of whether or not the White Sox had an actual shot at dropping 120 video games. I concluded that it was attainable, with ZiPS projecting an 8.1% likelihood that Chicago would lose 120 video games, higher odds than even the Oakland A’s throughout their brutal 2023 season. That gave the impression to be the top of the story, a minimum of till July.

After the terrible begin, issues received barely sunnier for the Sox for awhile. They swept the Tampa Bay Rays, a group anticipated to be a contender, and over the subsequent not-so-nice 69 video games, they went 24-45. Whereas a .348 profitable proportion isn’t in the identical zip code as competence, that’s a 56-win tempo, a stage of lousiness that’s pretty commonplace for the worst groups within the league, not the stuff of legend. However because the commerce deadline approached, issues once more turned grim.

The White Sox received the primary sport of a doubleheader in opposition to the Twins on July 10, enhancing their document to 27-67. That date, virtually a month in the past, was the final time the White Sox received a sport. The group’s 21 straight losses ties them with the 1988 Orioles for the second-most consecutive losses in fashionable baseball historical past (since 1901), simply two losses behind the largest loser, the 1961 Philadelphia Phillies. In some sense, the present one is likely to be probably the most spectacular dropping streak, just because the variations between one of the best and worst groups in baseball has shrunk over time, making streaks like this more difficult to realize.

And no, the White Sox haven’t been unfortunate. Utilizing a modified Pythagorean profitable proportion (I exploit 1.83 for the exponent fairly than two, because it’s been barely extra correct traditionally), the White Sox have been the fourth-worst group since 1901.

If the season ended immediately, the White Sox would have the worst modified Pythagorean win proportion in additional than 80 years, because the Philadelphia Phils in 1942. No, that’s not a typo; the Phillies formally shortened their group title for a season in 1942, apparently as a result of they determined they didn’t need to have the identical title as the road of cigars.

Downside is, the season doesn’t finish immediately, so the Sox haven’t closed the deal but. Regression towards the imply is an actual factor, and one of many major explanation why individuals overrate groups when issues are going very effectively, and vice-versa. On the finish of the day, a .235 profitable proportion or the .272 in modified Pythag are probably – although not assured – to go up over the remaining video games. Projections signify a extra steady description of a group’s capability, in addition to one which’s typically extra predictive of the longer term, and even with the diminished post-deadline roster, ZiPS sees the White Sox as “solely” a .355 group, a 58-104 tempo that represents merely a ho-hum stage of awfulness.

Nevertheless it’s additionally probably that given extra video games, these different horrible groups probably would have performed higher ball as effectively, for comparable causes. (Keep in mind, Main League Baseball didn’t implement the present 162-game schedule till 1961.) Whereas ZiPS projections date again to 2005, I’ve a fast little estimator for a group’s underlying capability that correlates pretty effectively with projections; it’s a mixture of precise document, a group’s “wRC Pythagorean” — which makes use of wRC fairly than runs rating and allowed — and a mannequin of regression towards .500. So I calculated the worst groups by this technique and in contrast them to Chicago’s .356 estimate.

Whew, the White Sox as soon as once more fall to satisfyingly hurlicious ranges because the worst group because the 1952 Pirates. And the factor is that for the Sox, a .355 document is awful sufficient that they stand a superb opportunity at dropping 120 video games anyway with the variety of losses they have already got banked. With 47 video games to play, a .355 document would internet them solely 16.7 wins, leaving them at slightly below a 44-118 document, tantalizingly near the 1962 Mets commonplace. And since we all know that projections aren’t excellent, or a minimum of possibly actuality isn’t, that offers the White Sox ample room to proceed to underperform and take the grand prize. Fortunately, ZiPS can maintain that estimate.

Even with issues projected to not go fairly as badly, ZiPS offers the White Sox a barely higher than one-in-three likelihood (34%) to lose 120 video games. And it might get even worse, with a 1% projected shot of ending with a 35-127 document (or worse). That’s championship brutality proper there. The amusing factor is that this chance might’ve been even greater, however the White Sox didn’t commerce Garrett Crochet or Luis Robert Jr. on the deadline, leaving the group encumbered with an extra 2-3 wins. If I take away Crochet and Robert Jr. in favor of their probably sub-replacement replacements, ZiPS tasks the Pale Hose to have a 66% likelihood of dropping a minimum of 120 video games!

I’m unsure I’d go as far as to name it a silver lining, however hope stays even for probably the most woeful groups in baseball. The final group to make a critical late run at 120 losses, the 2003 Tigers, improved shortly within the following seasons and made it to the World Sequence simply three years later. These 1952 Pirates have been in the midst of a full rebuild helmed by legendary normal supervisor Department Rickey, employed in ’51, and although well being issues compelled him to step down in ’55, the group assembled most of the key gamers who have been on the World Sequence-winning group in ’60. And let’s not neglect that seven years after dropping 120 video games, the Mets received the 1969 World Sequence. White Sox proprietor Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t one to embrace change, however a catastrophe of epic proportions might, in concept, be the one factor that might immediate him to overtake the group. I wouldn’t say I’m terribly optimistic about this really taking place, however with an improved farm system – we now rank Chicago’s farm because the third greatest in baseball – and possibly a greater entrance workplace assembled, the Sox might flip issues round.

Whether or not the White Sox have a brighter future is one thing we’ll have to attend to search out out. For now, take pleasure in these Sox as they attain new ranges of ineptitude, as a result of they stands out as the worst main league group you’ll ever see.