The Dodgers’ defeat of the Padres on Wednesday night time did so much to clear up the final suspenseful division race by restoring their NL West result in three video games, lowering their magic quantity to 2, and reducing the San Diego’s odds of profitable the division to three%. The larger story, nevertheless — an infuriating one given commissioner Rob Manfred’s unwillingness to override the Braves’ profit-minded intransigence with some proactive schedule shifting — is the Hurricane Helene-induced postponement of the ultimate two video games of the Mets-Braves sequence. Except the Diamondbacks slide fully out of the image, the 2 NL East rivals will now play a 1:10 p.m. ET doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday, the day after the scheduled finish of the common season. Whichever of the 2 groups survives (probably each) would then face flights to Milwaukee (locked in because the third seed) and/or California (both Los Angeles or San Diego because the fourth seed) to begin their respective Wild Card sequence the subsequent day, with their pitching staffs at a major drawback. Ugh, ugh, ugh.
Anyway, having gone across the horn after which some to determine the strongest gamers at every place among the many remaining contenders within the Nationwide and American Leagues, we now flip to the weakest ones. That is one thing of an offshoot of my annual Substitute Degree Killers sequence, and actually, even some confirmed October members have spots that also match the invoice as true lineup sinkholes, solely this time with no commerce deadline to assist fill them. For this, I’m contemplating full-season efficiency however with an eye fixed to who’s greatest or worst now, with accidents and changes in thoughts. In contrast to the Killers sequence, I’m additionally contemplating pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens factoring into my deliberations.
On this installment, I’ll spotlight the most important bother spots from amongst an NL area that features the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves.
Catcher: Kyle Higashioka and Elias Díaz, Padres
Padres catchers have mixed for 1.0 WAR, the bottom mark of any remaining contender in both league by 1.4 WAR. The current addition of Elias Díaz by way of waivers, and the next optioning of Luis Campusano — whose 83 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR, with ghastly defensive metrics in each taste, are what has actually weighed that rating down — mitigates that considerably. Nonetheless, a pairing of Díaz with Kyle Higashioka stands out extra as flimsy relative to the competitors than an precise legal responsibility. Higashioka is a better-than-average hitter for a backstop due to his energy; he hit .218/.264/.470 (104 wRC+), with 16 residence runs in 251 plate appearances, and he’s a minimum of respectable defensively (3.7 FRM, -3 FRV together with blocking and throwing). Díaz is weaker with the bat (.266/.315/.381, 82 wRC+) however equally stable behind the plate. Now if solely that they had a former shortstop who might catch…
First Base: Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers, Brewers
After lacking all the 2023 season resulting from a torn ACL, Rhys Hoskins has struggled mightily, batting simply .213/.303/.415 (100 wRC+). He’s nonetheless offered sufficient pop to hit 25 residence runs, however he’s not hitting the ball as laborious as he did earlier than his harm, he’s hanging out extra usually, and let’s face it, protection nonetheless isn’t his sturdy swimsuit. Jake Bauers, who has began 58 video games to Hoskins’ 86 (with the latter making 36 begins at DH), is the higher defender, however as his .197/.299/.363 (87 wRC+) slashline reveals, he has but to indicate he’s above Quad-A caliber. Hoskins has hit for a 117 wRC+ with a lot better Statcast numbers in September, so possibly there’s a glimmer of hope right here, however apart from San Diego’s Luis Arraez/Jake Cronenworth/Donovan Solano mishmash, the remainder of the NL area options good-to-great first basemen, and I’d take that Pad pod over the Brewers’ pair.
Second Base: Ozzie Albies, Braves
Whereas I thought of the Phillies’ Bryson Stott (who has hit for simply an 84 wRC+ within the second half) for this spot, he and his backups have greater than doubled the WAR of Braves second basemen (3.0 to 1.2), even with Whit Merrifield taking part in extra successfully for the latter membership than the previous. Atlanta’s drawback has so much to do with Ozzie Albies lacking two months resulting from a fractured left wrist. Albies is again, however he’s simply 3-for-19 with a house run and an 85.3-mph common exit velocity in 4 video games, and has hit a modest .253/.303/.403 (94 wRC+) with 9 homers this 12 months, properly off final 12 months’s efficiency (124 wRC+, 33 HR). The Braves have larger liabilities (see beneath), however I’m not but satisfied that makes Albies an asset in his present type.
Shortstop: Orlando Arcia, Braves
In 2023, Orlando Arcia stepped into the beginning shortstop position vacated by departed free agent Dansby Swanson and turned a scorching first half into the primary All-Star choice of his profession; even after cooling off final season, he completed with a decent .264/.321/.420 (100 wRC+) line and a pair of.4 WAR. This 12 months, nevertheless, he wound up on my midseason Substitute Degree Killers record, and whereas he’s had a greater second half (95 wRC+) than first (56 wRC+), his general efficiency (.219/.271/.357, 72 wRC+, 1.0 WAR) makes him by far the least helpful of any common shortstop on an NL contender — and his observe report, together with his struggles in Milwaukee, put him a lot nearer to this season’s stage than final 12 months’s.
Third Base: Gio Urshela, Braves
It’s not my intent to maintain selecting on the Braves, however they’re in a bind right here, and the competitors at this place is stiff. Eugenio Suárez was my choose for the place’s strongest on the premise of his scorching second half, getting the nod over Alec Bohm and Manny Machado, with Max Muncy, Joey Ortiz, and Mark Vientos all having good seasons as properly. Austin Riley wasn’t taking part in as much as his typical stage earlier than he fractured his proper hand on August 18, however he’d have match into that latter cluster simply fantastic and would’ve made this alternative a really troublesome one. Sadly, whereas the Braves hoped Riley would return in time for the playoffs, on Tuesday they revealed {that a} CT scan taken earlier this week confirmed his hand hadn’t healed sufficient to make him a viable possibility earlier than the tip of the postseason. That places fill-in Gio Urshela into the crosshairs. Launched by the Tigers in mid-August after posting a 75 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR, he has carried out respectably since being picked up by the Braves (.270/.288/.426, 95 wRC+ in 118 PA), however even when he might preserve that stage, he’d nonetheless be the least interesting possibility of this group.
Left Subject: Brandon Nimmo, Mets
I used to be all set to go along with the Braves right here as properly till digging into their current utilization sample, with hot-hitting Ramón Laureano (.301/.332/.510, 131 wRC+ in 205 PA for the workforce after being launched by the Guardians) taking part in kind of full time these days whereas Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall have been justifiably benched for tried alternative stage killing. As a substitute I’m going with Brandon Nimmo. The usually dependable outfielder’s 111 wRC+ and a pair of.8 WAR are properly beneath his typical requirements as a result of he’s hit an anemic .190/.285/.319 (70 wRC+) for the reason that All-Star break. Even with 4 residence runs in his previous 10 video games, his wRC+ for the month continues to be simply 81. Possibly he’s rising from his droop, however at a place the place 5 different common left fielders on NL contenders have produced a 130 wRC+ or higher within the second half, he’s not pulling his weight.
Middle Subject: Harrison Bader, Mets
Nimmo isn’t the one Mets outfielder in a chronic droop. Harrison Bader has out-funked his teammate, batting .177/.245/.300 (57 wRC+) in 143 PA within the second half, and has hit for simply an 83 wRC+ with 1.5 WAR general. He’s nonetheless a good flychaser, although his 10 FRV doesn’t line up with average-ish totals in DRS (-2) and UZR (0.2).
Proper Subject: Sal Frelick, Brewers
A former first-round choose (2021) and top-50 prospect (2023), Sal Frelick is a speedy hit-over-power sort whose offensive profile makes way more sense in middle area (the place he’s noticed often) than in proper. He merely doesn’t hit the ball laborious sufficient. His 83.4 mph common exit velo, 0.8% barrel price (that’s three barrels in 395 batted ball occasions), and 19.5% hard-hit price all rank final among the many 130 batting title-qualified hitters, and it’s translated right into a meager .259/.321/.334 line, together with his 86 wRC+ second-to-last among the many gamers whose main place is correct area. His defensive worth helps to offset the sunshine bat; even with some small-sample weirdness in left area, he’s totaled 13 DRS, 6 FRV and 4.2 UZR throughout the three outfield positions en path to 1.5 WAR.
Designated Hitter: J.D. Martinez, Mets
Final 12 months with the Dodgers, J.D. Martinez reunited with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc, who a decade in the past helped him unlock his energy by hitting the ball within the air with higher frequency, thus placing him on the forefront of the launch angle revolution and on the trail to stardom. The reunion helped Martinez to his greatest season since 2019, a 33-homer, 135-wRC+ efficiency, however the signing of Shohei Ohtani put him out of a job in Los Angeles. He languished on the free agent market till late March, and after signing with the Mets, wanted a minor league tuneup and didn’t debut till April 26. For awhile issues went very properly, as he hit .263/.349/.457 (130 wRC+) with 10 residence runs in 278 PA earlier than the All-Star break. He’s joined Nimmo and Bader within the dumps since then, batting simply .194/.276/.339 (77 wRC+), together with a 3-for-44 September worthy of placing his face on the facet of a milk carton. Have you ever seen this slugger?
Rotation: Dodgers
It’s not that the Dodgers had been doomed to repeat final 12 months’s Division Collection unraveling as a result of they forgot what occurred. They loaded up on high-end beginning pitching this previous winter by signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and buying and selling for Tyler Glasnow, then including James Paxton and bringing again Clayton Kershaw with a plan for him to return from main shoulder surgical procedure in midsummer. With these pitchers — fragile although they might have been — becoming a member of their present wealth of younger arms (together with Walker Buehler and Dustin Might, each coming back from elbow surgical procedures), the Dodgers figured that they had sufficient pitching to make it by way of the season and assemble a powerful rotation for the playoffs.
It hasn’t occurred that means, as each common starter of theirs apart from the oft-injured Paxton — together with all the aforementioned plus Bobby Miller — landed on the IL sooner or later, with Miller and Buehler pitching like shadows of their former selves and incomes demotions to Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis. Now their solely two starters to succeed in the 100-inning threshold — Glasnow and rookie Gavin Stone — have been finished in by arm accidents (an elbow sprain for the previous, shoulder irritation for the latter). Kershaw is on the IL resulting from a bone spur in his left huge toe, and Yamamoto has but to pitch greater than 4 innings in a begin since coming back from a 12-week absence resulting from a rotator cuff pressure. Even with the acquisition of Jack Flaherty forward of the commerce deadline, the Los Angeles rotation has produced a 5.02 ERA and 4.75 FIP since July 30, and rookie Landon Knack and the struggling Buehler might very properly want to begin alongside Yamamoto and Flaherty within the Division Collection. Not even a $255 million payroll should buy certainty.
Bullpen: Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks reached the World Collection final 12 months regardless of an unsteady bullpen that was drastically aided by their buying and selling for nearer Paul Sewald on the deadline. Sadly for them, Sewald pitched his means out of the ninth inning job by blowing 4 saves in July, and his alternative, Justin Martinez, has allowed runs in 10 of his 22 appearances since notching his first save on August 5, changing eight out of 9 save probabilities however taking 4 losses alongside the best way. The bullpen fared very properly in August (3.34 ERA, 2.97 FIP) however has been terrible in September (6.39 ERA, 4.24 FIP) due largely to a .362 BABIP and much an excessive amount of laborious contact. Whereas one deadline acquisition, A.J. Puk, is driving a streak of twenty-two 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings, one other addition, Dylan Floro, pitched his means off the roster with a double-digit ERA; in the meantime setup man Ryan Thompson has been lit for a 6.86 ERA for the reason that begin of August, and Sewald has landed on the IL with neck discomfort. Dangerous pitching (together with the starters) has been the foremost driver of Arizona’s 4-7 skid that has saved the door vast open for each the Braves and Mets, climate be damned.
Protection: Padres
Among the many remaining NL contenders, the Padres have the bottom DRS (-9) and UZR (-8.4), they usually’re inside one run of the bottom FRV (-12). To be honest, these numbers are weighed down by the since-demoted Campusano, however of their present state, the Padres do have points. The return of Fernando Tatis Jr. from a 10-week absence resulting from a stress response in his proper femur has been offset by the lack of shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to a bout of shoulder irritation. His absence has destabilized the protection by sending Xander Bogaerts again to the place they moved him off this spring, which with the shift of Cronenworth again to second has pressured the DH-caliber Arraez to play first a few of the time. The timing of Kim’s return is unclear; in the meantime, Tatis isn’t having something near the sort of season that gained him final 12 months’s Platinum Glove, and left fielder Jurickson Profar is a specific legal responsibility primarily based on the metrics. Even so, none of this has stopped the Padres from placing collectively the very best second-half report (40-18, .695) in baseball.
