Sunday, October 27, 2024

The Tigers’ Spencer Torkelson Dilemma

The Tigers loved an unimaginable late-season surge and rode a robust September to not solely an 85-win marketing campaign however a playoff berth that introduced them inside one sport of their first ALCS look since 2013. With a bona fide ace in Tarik Skubal and a core of proficient younger hitters like Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Parker Meadows in place, it appears clear that the time has come for the membership to be aggressive in supplementing that spectacular core. To that finish, president of baseball operations Scott Harris highlighted two main wants for the membership at his end-of-season press convention: a high quality right-handed bat and beginning pitching assist.

For a membership that was reluctant to depend on any beginning pitchers except for Skubal within the postseason, discovering rotation upgrades this season ought to be pretty simple. Including a bat to the lineup, nonetheless, could possibly be a bit extra sophisticated given the membership’s present building on offense. The aforementioned trio of Greene, Carpenter, and Meadows are all outfielders, although Carpenter sometimes finds most of his taking part in time as a DH reasonably than on the outfield grass. The membership can also be deep in different potential outfield choices, similar to Matt Vierling, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Wenceel Perez, and Akil Baddoo.

Whereas it’s definitely doable to squeeze a giant bat similar to Tyler O’Neill or Teoscar Hernandez into the lineup in proper subject, doing so could be a sub-optimal answer given the membership’s deep cache of outfield choices. Second base looks like an much more unlikely spot for an improve given the membership’s six-year dedication to Colt Keith on the keystone, which they made final winter previous to his MLB debut. With a 97 wRC+ total throughout his rookie marketing campaign due to a .285/.338/.437 slash line within the final three months of the season, Keith definitely appears to have earned one other crack at common at-bats on the place.

That leaves few apparent locations the place the membership might improve its offense. Maybe there’s room for an offensive improve behind the plate, and rumors that Willson Contreras could possibly be out there because the Cardinals look to cut back payroll this winter would make for an on-paper match. As spectacular as Contreras’s 133 wRC+ over the previous three seasons has been, nonetheless, he’s a lackluster defender behind the plate and is headed for his age-33 season subsequent 12 months. On condition that, it’s affordable to marvel if Detroit would favor to stay with the defensively wonderful (if offensively missing) Jake Rogers and teenager Dillon Dingler behind the plate subsequent 12 months. Dingler struggled in his first style of massive league motion this 12 months, however impressed with a 139 wRC+ at Triple-A this 12 months and will enhance offensively as he will get his toes moist within the majors.

That leaves the infield as maybe the most probably place for the Tigers to search out the right-handed offensive improve they want, and free company figures to play host to a handful of intriguing choices ought to they be prepared to spend. Willy Adames would definitely be a considerable improve to the membership’s present shortstop combine, although including a nine-figure dedication on the place when Javier Baez remains to be assured $73MM over the subsequent three seasons could possibly be tough to abdomen. In the meantime, third baseman Alex Bregman stands out as maybe the opposite prime free agent infielder and could possibly be a considerably clear match for the Tigers in the event that they’re tired of holding out a place for 2022 first-rounder Jace Jung, who posted a 102 wRC+ in his first style of massive league motion this 12 months however struck out at a 30.9% clip.

There may be one different place the place the membership might clearly improve in free company, and it’s one that may be stunning to recommend a couple of quick years in the past: first base. 2020 first-overall decide Spencer Torkelson was a consensus top-five prospect within the sport previous to his MLB debut, dubbed nearly from the day he was drafted as a can’t-miss hitter with famous person potential. That hasn’t panned out thus far, nonetheless, as his offensive contributions by his third season within the majors have truly been beneath common total. In 361 profession video games within the majors, Torkelson has hit simply .221/.300/.392 with a wRC+ of 95. Maybe that may be acceptable for a participant with extra defensive worth, however Torkelson has usually been a below-average defender at one of many least demanding defensive positions on the diamond thus far in his profession, leaving him with simply 0.8 fWAR accrued in his massive league profession thus far.

After all, that’s to not say that there’s no motive for optimism relating to Torkelson. Maybe essentially the most important issue within the slugger’s favor is his age, as he’ll play subsequent 12 months at simply 25 years outdated. By comparability, rookie first baseman Michael Busch delivered a stable inaugural season (119 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR) with the Cubs this 12 months however is at present simply two weeks shy of his twenty seventh birthday. Fellow 1-1 decide Adley Rutschman had simply 410 massive league plate appearances below his belt on his twenty fifth birthday, a mark Torkelson eclipsed in simply the second sport of his age-23 season.

It’s additionally value noting that Torkelson has managed to ship high quality offense over shorter stretches. Simply 13 months in the past, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote about Torkelson’s mid-season enhancements on the plate that allowed him to slash a formidable .242/.322/.500 (124 wRC+) with 20 house runs in his remaining 80 video games of the 2023 marketing campaign. An analogous late-season surge occurred when he was known as again up in mid-August of this 12 months following a mid-season demotion: over the ultimate six weeks of the season, Torkelson hit .248/.338/.444 with a wRC+ of 125.

That sort of offense would make him precisely the form of impactful right-handed slugger the Tigers want to add if he was in a position to maintain it over a full season. That hasn’t come to move to this point, nonetheless, and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press not too long ago recommended issues could possibly be trending towards the edges parting methods. Petzold famous that “all indicators level” to Torkelson not being the long-term answer at first base with a chance that the membership adjustments gears as quickly as this winter.

Ought to the membership resolve they’d be higher off pursuing a extra established, dependable bat in free company this winter, there’s a handful of choices value contemplating. Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, and Anthony Santander all have first base expertise and will assist to rework Detroit’s lineup, although Santander’s expertise at first is considerably restricted. Alonso, particularly, appears to be a robust match for the membership’s wants in the event that they resolve to maneuver on from Torkelson. He’s by no means posted a wRC+ beneath 120 in a season and can be simply 30 years outdated subsequent 12 months, providing a consistency that’s tough to match, and sensational campaigns in 2019 and 2022 noticed him flash the MVP-candidate upside Tigers followers had been certainly dreaming on after they first drafted Torkelson.

Pivoting in the direction of one other participant at first base would depart the membership with a dilemma relating to what to do with Torkelson. It’s doable that semi-regular at-bats could possibly be discovered for him even with an addition at first base; Carpenter has sometimes sat towards most left-handed pitchers and performed greater than half of his video games within the outfield this 12 months, leaving room for Torkelson to begin discover frequent at-bats at DH, together with begins towards nearly each southpaw.

The membership is likely to be higher off exploring what’s on the market on the commerce market, nonetheless. In any case, Torkelson’s youth, pedigree, and spectacular outcomes on the massive league stage briefly stretches might make him a lovely change-of-scenery candidate for an up-and-coming crew with a gap at first base just like the Nationals, or perhaps a extra established membership with a necessity on the place just like the Astros. If a membership was prepared to supply massive league pitching in return for Torkelson’s companies, that may certainly be a tough proposition for the Tigers to show down in the event that they had been already eyeing an improve over Torkelson at first base.

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