The Thunder really feel like the one actual menace to the Celtics within the NBA

The Celtics and Thunder meet on Sunday in probably the most intriguing common season recreation in current reminiscence. It’s looks like probably the most inevitable Finals preview for the reason that Cavaliers-Warriors years and each Jayson Tatum and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have probably the most official paths to the MVP award. Past that, Oklahoma Metropolis leads Boston by 3.5 within the standings and constructed arguably the one opposing drive within the NBA that may defeat the Celtics at full energy 4 occasions.

Seeds of the Thunder’s dominance confirmed as early as 2023, once they poured 150 factors on Boston at dwelling in a yr the place they completed under .500. Chet Holmgren redshirted that season earlier than rising as one of many league’s finest two-way bigs as a rookie in Victor Wembanyama’s shadow. He’s a obligatory Kristaps Porziņģis counter, one of many few that exist. Jalen Williams offers them near the second punch Jaylen Brown supplies Boston. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum have battled atop the league hierarchy for the 2nd-Fifth spots alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Dončić for the previous three years.

Then there’s Mark Daigneault, who’s turn into each bit the defensive mastermind that Joe Mazzulla turned on offense over the previous three years. Isaiah Hartenstein joined them this offseason, solidifying their greatest weak point on the boards and permitting them to play their patented small ball and have the double-big appears to counter when an opponent like Boston turns to Al Horford on the 4. Lu Dort can take guards and forwards out of the sport. You could possibly go on and on.

They’ve additionally received 14 straight, including to the timeliness of their assembly. Although Alex Caruso, one other stellar discover over the summer season a la Jrue Vacation one yr in the past, and Holmgren will miss the sport, as Brown doubtlessly will, there’s sufficient right here to evaluate what a sequence may seem like. The Celtics’ three-point quantity edge stays a staggering benefit over the remainder of the league, Thunder included, even with Oklahoma Metropolis matching their effectivity final yr. The Thunder boast the velocity, layers of playmaking and physicality that the Hawks, Grizzlies, Pacers and others have utilized to disrupt Boston to start this season.

Photograph by Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe through Getty Photos

It’s like Oklahoma Metropolis cloned the Celtics’ blueprint — they usually have extra coming. First spherical level guard Nikola Topić is rehabbing his ACL tear. The Sixers would possibly owe them a primary from the Al Horford commerce to go along with as many as three further first-rounders this summer season. Within the following three years, they may personal 9 firsts and 15 seconds, an absolute necessity to surviving the league’s new cap provisions that’ll stress the Celtics’ capability to take care of their core beginning in 2025-26. That provides to the strain for Boston to run it again whereas they’ve the possibility.

Each groups need to get by means of difficult paths to make their collision course pan out. The Celtics would possibly sort out the East as the 2 and even three seed. The Thunder’s path is perhaps grueling from spherical one regardless of rising its benefit because the West’s prime seed. Dallas dealt with them final postseason and will push them to the brink once more in the event that they get wholesome. Denver may have the perfect participant within the sequence. The cumulative impact of enjoying three powerful sequence undoubtedly made the Mavs simpler to deal with for Boston within the Finals.

However ought to they play for the title, it’ll come all the way down to Mazzulla’s favourite stats — taking pictures, rebounding, free throws and turnovers. The Thunder have regressed to 34.9% from three thus far and rank twenty fifth in offensive rebounding, draw virtually even in free throw makes an attempt every night time and each groups lead the league at limiting turnovers at just under a 12% charge. Oklahoma Metropolis’s protection is best by virtually seven factors per 100 possessions. Boston owns a 5.4 factors per 100 edge on offense. Nonetheless, their adjusted internet scores each work out to +9.3 due to their respective dominance at both finish.

It’s a distinction of kinds at both finish, too. The Thunder take about 12 fewer threes per recreation than the Celtics and thrive within the mid-range (45.6%), the place solely the Nets and Suns shoot higher. Their protection is extra forceful than Boston’s, forcing a jarring 18.9 turnovers per recreation, a class the Celtics solely rank twenty fifth in. Their wings fly round in every single place, and like Derrick White and Vacation, block photographs, too.

Boston performs a extra analytical model of protection, they usually’ll absolutely direct photographs to the Thunder’s weaker shooters. There aren’t many: Dort knocks down 40% at a good quantity, Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander each convert above 35%, as do Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe. You additionally need to maintain Hartenstein off the glass. This might be a recreation the place Porzingis drops whereas Horford, Vacation and Tatum face off with Oklahoma Metropolis’s bodily heart. If they’ll’t maintain the Thunder out of transition, none of that issues.

The Thunder may have points, too. How do they bridge the mathematics hole? Can they be aggressive on protection when the ball strikes so effortlessly? What if Boston’s massive wings hinder Gilgeous-Alexander’s creation skills like Milwaukee’s did within the NBA Cup Ultimate? They’ve restricted opponent three-point effectivity higher than any protection (33.1%). They haven’t seen the Celtics. With out Gilgeous-Alexander final spring, they allowed 42.5% taking pictures to Boston from deep and misplaced by 35. With him, they performed the Celtics inside single-digits within the three video games prior.

It’s an enchanting matchup. It’s the primary time for the reason that two Nuggets video games final yr that the Celtics see an opponent that might show an existential menace to Boston’s championship hopes that always really feel bulletproof. If they’ve one weak point, it’s fast, versatile and athletic opponents. The Thunder have that with dimension and expertise on par with theirs. The Celtics have the trophy. We watched just a few months of Wizards, Pistons, Hornets and Raptors matchups to get right here.

Sport on.