Because the 22 groups that aren’t at present targeted on capturing the 2024 World Sequence title gear up for the approaching offseason, many will certainly be maintaining a tally of the variety of high-profile free agent starters set to hit the market this winter with Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty among the many consensus prime arms. It’s a category that’s not completely dissimilar from final winter’s group of prime arms, which was headlined by a quartet of Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Montgomery.
These prime free agent arms garnered a mixed assure of greater than $600MM final winter, and the outcomes have been typically commensurate with that manufacturing. Whereas Montgomery struggled badly with the Diamondbacks, Nola put up a reasonably typical season by his requirements with the Phillies this yr (albeit with barely diminished peripherals) and each Snell and Yamamoto fought by damage woes to dominate as anticipated when wholesome. That mentioned, a starter who was checked out extra as a mid-rotation kind of arm final winter shocked the baseball world by rising with numbers akin to these on the very prime of the category.
That hurler was Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who was typically checked out as a tier beneath the aforementioned group alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito, and Sonny Grey. Regardless of rumors that Imanaga’s market may prime $100MM when all was mentioned and executed, the southpaw lingered in free company into the brand new yr earlier than ultimately signing with Chicago on a deal that fell far beneath expectations. Whereas the deal maxes out at 5 years and $80MM, only a stone’s throw away from MLBTR’s prediction of $85MM over 5 years, the deal got here with a fancy construction that solely assured Imanaga $53MM, or roughly two thirds of that $80MM complete determine.
It’s not arduous to see why groups have been seemingly bearish on Imanaga. In any case, the 30-year-old lefty was coming over from Japan’s Nippon Skilled Baseball at an age that’s roughly according to a typical MLB free agent relatively than the youthful age many NPB gamers similar to Yamamoto and teammate Seiya Suzuki make their option to the majors at. Yamamoto was advertising and marketing his age-25 season final yr, whereas Suzuki marketed his age-27 season over the 2021-22 offseason. With lots of Imanaga’s prime years already behind him, he maintained all the danger of offering a hefty sum to a participant with no MLB expertise with out a lot of the perceived upside that might include signing a participant of their mid-20s.
Even except for Imanaga’s age, it’s additionally value noting that the lefty’s profile as a pitcher drew vital questions. The southpaw doesn’t throw particularly arduous, having averaged simply 91.9mph on his heater this yr, and a few scouting reviews (together with one from Brandon Tew of Sports activities Information Options) raised questions on his means to handle dwelling runs on the large league degree on account of his fly ball-oriented profile. Whereas Imanaga’s deep pitch combine and high-end stuff metrics supplied motive for optimism relating to his future within the large leagues, the lefty however entered his first MLB season with loads of questions surrounding him.
Thankfully for each Imanaga and the Cubs, he answered these questions in resounding style with a wonderful rookie marketing campaign. Total, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA (37% higher than league common by ERA+) with a robust 25.1% strikeout price that was Sixteenth-best amongst certified starters this yr. He paired that strikeout stuff with wonderful management, strolling simply 4% of opponents confronted this yr. That’s a determine topped by solely George Kirby, Miles Mikolas, and Zach Eflin amongst all large leaguers this yr and leaves him with a improbable 21% Ok-BB that leaves him sandwiched between ace righties Zack Wheeler and Dylan Stop on the NL leaderboard.
That being mentioned, not every thing about Imanaga’s 2024 efficiency was dominant. His 3.72 FIP is relatively pedestrian (simply 6% higher than league common by FIP-) and extra superior metrics similar to xERA and SIERA, whereas extra bullish than FIP on his efficiency, nonetheless see him as extra of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than the two.91 determine he truly posted this yr. The principle offender for that discrepancy between outcomes and metrics is the exact same weak spot that drew some skepticism final winter: his proclivity for giving up homers. Imanaga surrendered 27 dwelling runs this yr, tied with Twins righty Bailey Ober for ninth-most amongst all certified starters in 2024.
Whereas that’s actually not a totally untenable determine, it will actually be honest to marvel if Imanaga is due for some regression heading into subsequent season. Of the eight pitchers who surrendered extra homers than Imanaga this yr, none got here near his sterling ERA with solely Nola (3.57) and Jose Berrios (3.60) posting an determine that was even inside a full run of Imanaga’s 2.91 mark. Between his hefty dwelling run price and an above-average 80.2% strand price this yr, it will hardly be a shock if the emergent ace put up numbers nearer to the mid-rotation ceiling he was thought to have this time final yr come 2025.
In fact, even a step again that aligns Imanaga’s efficiency extra carefully together with his superior metrics would go away the Cubs with a wonderful #2 starter behind ace Justin Steele who they need to haven’t any considerations about beginning in a hypothetical playoff sequence. Barring dramatic regression on the a part of Imanaga subsequent yr, it appears very probably that the Cubs will assure the lefty the total $80MM worth of his contract relatively than danger him opting out following the 2025 marketing campaign, which he would be capable to do if the Cubs decline to ensure the total contract.
