The semi-realistic path for Payton Pritchard to win Sixth Man of the 12 months

Like switching from fluorescent tubes to an LED ring mild, successful a championship places every part in gentler aid. Flaws are usually waved away (“Effectively, they gained final 12 months, didn’t they?”) and strengths extra notably appreciated. The nice and cozy glow provides everybody concerned a lift.

One participant whose sport ought to achieve extra notoriety is Payton Pritchard. After watching him evolve final season, I’m extra satisfied than ever that he has an opportunity to win Sixth Man of the 12 months this season.

Let’s get the caveat out of the way in which first. No, Pritchard won’t even be the Celtics’ sixth man. However that’s the kind of paradox we stay for — in any case, Jaylen Brown is the very best participant on this planet however solely the second-best participant in Boston!

Nothing within the rulebook says that 6MOY really has to go to a sixth man. To qualify, a participant should merely come off the bench in additional video games than he begins. So, for the needs of this award, it doesn’t matter whether or not Pritchard edges out Sam Hauser or Al Horford in common minutes (though Al appears more likely to be disqualified for beginning too many video games in Porzingis’ absence, anyway).

Payton does match the profile higher than Hauser or Horford, too. Like your school roommate’s obsession with tattooed blondes, media voters have a kind. In line with analysis I did final 12 months, 17 of the earlier 20 winners have gone to bucket-getting guards.

Fortunately for Pritchard, there’s been a slight shift in how a lot scoring must be carried out. The earlier two winners, Boston’s personal Malcolm Brogdon in 2022-23 and Timberwolf Naz Reid final season, averaged fewer than 15 factors per sport and nonetheless gained the award regardless of competitors that scored extra. Voters are more and more keen to have a look at influence as an alternative of simply factors per sport.

Photograph by Brian Babineau/NBAE through Getty Photographs

Even the rosiest Pritchard forecasts don’t name for him to make it rain that arduous, so he gained’t win an outright factors contest. However after a poor Finals efficiency (the end-of-quarter heaves whitewashed struggles along with his shot and protection), he’s speaking about bettering all the correct issues: his protection (which can preserve him on the courtroom) and his three-ball off the dribble, the place he solely shot 30.6% final season.

Anticipate a motivated Pritchard to come back again new and improved on either side. Plus, circumstances ought to afford him extra alternative. He averaged a career-high 22.3 minutes per sport final 12 months, and there can be room for him to earn extra run.

Jrue Vacation is not any spring hen, and Boston might elect to relaxation him extra through the common season — his 2,263 minutes performed final season have been his most in 5 years. With nothing within the common season to show, the Jays might take extra relaxation days, too. And Porzingis’ absence creates a 20-points-per-game vacuum within the lineup. With out his taking pictures, Boston appears more likely to run far fewer two-big lineups this season, opening the door for extra small ball.

The 26-year-old Pritchard is a probable candidate for an elevated minutes load, a minimum of till Porzingis comes again. And he doesn’t want a lot time to fill it up — he has scored 35 factors in 40 preseason minutes up to now, in search of his shot aggressively. A few additional makes an attempt despatched his method will goose his numbers.

We have now a beginning place if Pritchard hovers round 26 minutes per evening and might eke his scoring as much as 13-ish factors. Pritchard’s strong help numbers and stunning rebounding, notably on the offense finish, ought to replenish field scores to no matter minimal threshold voters require for consideration.

From there, Pritchard’s superior metrics ought to shine. His Estimated Plus/Minus (essentially the most well-regarded publicly out there all-in-one stat) was greater than final 12 months’s high 4 vote-getters, together with Reid. It’s no coincidence that the Celtics’ reserves, by and enormous, had higher on/off numbers than a lot of the starters. Aided by Mazzulla’s numbers-driven offensive engine and Pritchard’s playmaking, the second unit smeared foes like so many windshield flies.

That opens up a story for nationwide audiences. Take a look at Payton Pritchard, the super-sub who is available in and makes the NBA’s finest crew even higher! If he can proceed his penchant for buzzer-beaters, Pritchard can have the highlights to maintain him top-of-mind, too.

Competitors can be stiff, even inside his personal crew. One may argue that each Horford (once more, probably to not qualify) and Hauser are as essential or extra to the crew’s success. Defending champ Reid can have much more alternative to place up large numbers off the bench this 12 months after the Karl-Anthony Cities commerce. Sacramento’s Malik Monk has been a top-five vote-getter within the final two seasons, and somebody at all times is available in as a shock candidate (Alex Caruso in OKC and CJ McCollum in New Orleans are intriguing darkish horse picks).

Is Pritchard successful Sixth Man of the 12 months probably to occur? No. It’s a tough award to venture, and so much has to go proper for whoever nabs it. However the truth that I’m even speaking about Pritchard’s candidacy reveals the chance he’ll have and the excessive expectations he’s engendered. I’m able to see Pritchard add some accolades to his Basketball Reference web page.