Simply two weeks after Jac Caglianone fell to them within the draft, the Kansas Metropolis Royals have acquired one other beefy two-way faculty participant: Michael Lorenzen. After spending the primary seven seasons of his main league profession with the Cincinnati Reds, the previous Cal State Fullerton star is now on his fifth crew previously 24 months. And for the second time in as many seasons, he’s parlayed a powerful first half right into a midseason commerce to a contender. In return, the Rangers obtain Walter Pennington, a 26-year-old lefty reliever who made his MLB debut earlier this month.
The Rangers signed Lorenzen on the very finish of spring coaching to a one-year, $4.5 million contract, intending to make use of him to plug one of many varied holes within the rotation left by accidents to Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and I’m positive I’m forgetting somebody, however you get the thought. Lorenzen wished to begin, and the defending World Collection champions had a necessity.
And for some time, it seemed just like the steal of the offseason. In distinction to different late signees like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, Lorenzen didn’t appear adversely affected by his quick ramp-up. He debuted on April 15 and threw 79 pitches over 5 scoreless innings. Lorenzen adopted that up by ending six innings over his subsequent eight begins, all whereas holding opponents to a .204/.296/.343 batting line. On the finish of that run, Lorenzen’s season ERA was under 3.00.
Although if you need a microcosm for a way the Rangers’ season has gone, Texas rewarded Lorenzen’s excellent first two months with insultingly meager run help: sufficient to go simply 3-6 in these 9 begins.
Which is how we acquired to a degree the place the Rangers are promoting to Kansas Metropolis. It’s fairly widespread traditionally for these two groups to change gamers; the truth is, it was only a yr in the past tomorrow that Texas acquired Aroldis Chapman from the Royals for a bundle together with pitching prospect Cole Ragans. It labored out for either side: The Rangers received a championship, and Kansas Metropolis was capable of magically flip Ragans right into a no. 1 starter in a single day.
It’s much less widespread for Texas to be ready to promote to Kansas Metropolis. The Royals are presently in possession of the final AL Wild Card spot, and based on our Playoff Odds, they’re rather less than even cash to hold onto it. The Rangers, at 51-55, aren’t out of hope but, however they’re taking over water. Nicely, they’ve already taken on water and the ship may capsize any day now. The Royals haven’t been good whereas the Rangers had been unhealthy since 2014, which was a one-off anomaly in a extremely aggressive decade for Texas. Earlier than that, you must return to the Nineteen Eighties.
With all that mentioned, why are the Rangers buying and selling off one among their early-season successes for a 26-year-old rookie who was undrafted out of (checks notes) the Colorado Faculty of Mines?
Nicely, nearly as good as the primary two months of the season had been to Lorenzen, the final two months had been much less so. Since June 7, his ERA is 4.79 and his FIP is 6.19, and he’s allowed 10 house runs in simply 47 innings. Over the previous 30 days, his ERA is 6.20. His previous two appearances had been the apotheosis of a pitcher on his manner out: On Saturday, Lorenzen threw 40 pitches and allowed 4 runs however didn’t get out of the primary inning. A day later, the Rangers introduced him again for a four-inning aid look totaling 55 extra pitches.
Some regression was all the time going to occur. Lorenzen has by no means been a giant strikeout man, and this season he’s elevated his stroll fee by greater than half. Out of 80 pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings this season, Lorenzen is lifeless final in Okay-BB%. All of this whereas permitting a higher-than-average HR/9 fee.
Some web weirdos assume that the metrics we put out right here at FanGraphs have their very own ideas and feelings, in order to be vindictive in opposition to sure gamers or groups. After all that’s not the case — one thing like WAR or FIP is simply an equation. It doesn’t love or hate. But when FIP did have a thoughts of its personal, self-awareness, or perhaps a soul, it might have a look at Lorenzen’s numbers from this season, maintain its nostril and go, “Oooooh, smelly!”
So the opposite shoe — in Lorenzen’s case, that shoe is a particularly cool customized Vans cleat — was all the time going to drop. And it’s taking place simply because the Rangers’ want for Lorenzen is disappearing. Scherzer is again already, and deGrom, Mahle, and Cody Bradford are shut behind. Lorenzen was going to be out of the rotation fairly quickly it doesn’t matter what, so now he has an opportunity to make one other crew’s rotation.
Lorenzen’s contract requires $2.5 million in workload bonuses, and I used to be curious what number of of these markers he’s hit. He will get $200,000 reaching 60 innings pitched, and one other $200,000 for each 10 innings from 60 to 100. Throwing 40-plus pitches on consecutive days may be the form of factor you’d count on from, effectively, Cal State Fullerton a era in the past, however that final outing additionally acquired Lorenzen over 100 innings earlier than the commerce. In order that’s $1 million within the bag to this point, with the next bonuses nonetheless on the board: $300,000 for 120 innings, $350,000 for 140 innings, $400,000 for 160 innings, and $450,000 for 180 innings.
Except Lorenzen will get damage, 120 innings seems like a lock. However there are solely 10 or 11 journeys by way of the rotation left within the common season; except Lorenzen does a 2008 CC Sabathia impression, 180 innings isn’t going to occur, and even 160 innings feels unlikely.
For the second time in as a few years, the crew Lorenzen is becoming a member of on the deadline counts its rotation as its best power, and there’s not an apparent place for the 32-year-old to fit in. Ragans and Seth Lugo are All-Stars, Brady Singer and Michael Wacha have been glorious to this point this yr, and even no. 5 starter Alec Marsh has had higher outcomes and peripherals than Lorenzen.
I’d think about that Lorenzen goes to function a center reliever and swingman. The Royals not solely must make the playoffs, they want to verify not to wear down their rotation alongside the best way. This isn’t a rotation that’s used to creating 30 begins within the common season, then 5 extra in October.
Wacha and Lugo have each pitched within the postseason, however collectively, this rotation’s final MLB playoff begin got here in 2015, when Wacha was 23 years previous and two seasons faraway from profitable NLCS MVP. Lugo goes to move his main league profession excessive in innings the subsequent time he takes the mound. Ragans has already thrown extra innings this yr than he has in any skilled season. It doesn’t sound just like the worst thought on the earth to toss in a man who can piggyback or function a no. 6 starter.
So what of Pennington? The opposite half of this commerce has two-thirds of an inning of profession huge league expertise and a sinker that sits within the low 90s — for a reliever, even a lefty, that’s fringy. However Pennington additionally has above-average really feel for a breaking ball, which has allowed him to place up eye-popping numbers within the excessive minors: a 32.9% strikeout fee with a .179 opponent batting common and a 2.26 ERA in 59 2/3 Triple-A appearances.
A finesse-and-soft-stuff lefty is clearly going to fare effectively in opposition to Triple-A opposition and have questions over whether or not he can sneak that breaker previous huge leaguers with any consistency. For that purpose, he got here in at no. 36 on Travis Ice’s Royals prospect record just a few weeks in the past. It’s a token return for a pitcher who was as scorching as Lorenzen was two months in the past, however a non-trivial return for somebody who was trending towards getting DFA’d. Even when the Rangers proper the ship and make a stunning run for the playoffs, I’d argue {that a} devoted lefty reliever, even a low-leverage one, is extra useful to the Rangers proper now than Lorenzen. Notably as any such run would require Mahle and deGrom returning to the rotation and pitching effectively.
I often don’t care even a bit about crew management for aid pitchers in a commerce — particularly if that reliever isn’t, like, Devin Williams or Mason Miller. But it surely’s additionally value mentioning that Kirby Yates and José Leclerc are going to be free brokers subsequent yr, and David Robertson may be part of them on the open market if his $7 million mutual possibility doesn’t get exercised. (Mutual choices are likely to have a slim window for either side to agree.) Additionally, subsequent yr Yates goes to be 38 and Robertson will probably be 40. So if nothing else, Pennington offers the Rangers helpful depth.
The Rangers get a prospect, the Royals get some depth, and Lorenzen improves his likelihood of taking part in into October. It may not be the blockbuster everybody was ready for, however trades like this preserve the wheels shifting.
