The weekend’s Premier League motion begins with a crunch conflict within the race for Champions League qualification, with fourth-placed Manchester Metropolis travelling to third-placed Nottingham Forest for the Saturday lunchtime kick-off.
Metropolis head to the Metropolis Floor only a level behind the hosts, who they beat 3-0 in December’s reverse fixture, however Forest have solely misplaced twice at dwelling in all competitions this season.
It has all of the makings of an incredible recreation, and listed here are some assorted stats to ponder within the build-up…
Tighter than ever within the race for Europe
Manchester Metropolis haven’t did not qualify for the Champions League since 2010 (Picture credit score: Alamy)
As issues stand, Manchester Metropolis sit simply 5 factors forward of 10th -placed Aston Villa. For the reason that Premier League first acquired a fourth Champions League spot within the 2002/03 marketing campaign, there has by no means been a smaller hole between fourth and 10th firstly of March.
Victory, in fact, would take Pep Guardiola’s aspect above Nottingham Forest and into third; something much less they usually might discover themselves with an uncomfortably skinny cushion come the tip of the weekend.
That stated, Metropolis have begun March fourth within the Premier League twice since 2002/03 and gone on to clinch Champions League qualification each instances, successful the title in 2013/14 and ending fourth in 2015/16.
What’s extra, the Premier League is on target to get a fifth Champions League place this time period, with England at the moment topping UEFA’s coefficient rankings. That theoretically offers Metropolis – and Forest – extra room for error in the course of the run-in, however it might additionally make the sizeable chasing pack all of the extra motivated.
Forest in a drought?
Chris Wooden is Nottingham Forest’s high scorer this season with 18 objectives (Picture credit score: Alamy)
By one measure, Nottingham Forest are on their worst run of the season. Nuno Espirito Santo’s group have did not win any of their final 5 video games in 90 minutes, needing penalties to see off Exeter and Ipswich within the FA Cup; within the Premier League, they misplaced away to Fulham and Newcastle earlier than drawing at dwelling to Arsenal.
The flip aspect of that’s that it was solely two dwelling league video games in the past that Forest demolished Brighton 7-0. Additionally they scored three in defeat to Newcastle and one towards Fulham, which means they elevated their objectives tally by a 3rd (from 33 to 44) in simply three matches.
They could have drawn a clean towards Arsenal, however the objectives have typically been flowing for Forest because the flip of the yr – whereas Metropolis, who gained 1-0 at Tottenham final trip within the league, haven’t stored back-to-back Prem clear sheets in 2024/25.
Clear-sheet class vs xG excellence
Erling Haaland’s successful objective for Metropolis towards Spurs was his twentieth of the Premier League marketing campaign (Picture credit score: Alamy)
Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Matz Sels boasts a Premier League-high 11 clear sheets this time period, whereas Manchester Metropolis’s quantity 9 Erling Haaland leads the best way on anticipated objectives (xG) with 0.77 per 90 (the identical as Danny Ings, however the West Ham striker has performed simply 264 Prem minutes to Haaland’s 2,303).
Haaland is getting himself into good goalscoring positions (who’d have thought it, huh?) and has scored 25 league objectives from 19.8 xG in 2024/25, however Sels has a knack for producing heroics in massive moments. This may very well be an intriguing particular person battle on the sharp finish of the pitch.
