There’s just one playoff race this yr. That may not sound correct to you. The Yankees and Orioles are deadlocked within the AL East. The Guardians are holding the Twins and Royals at bay within the Central. The Padres are trying menacingly northwards towards LA. However these aren’t playoff races, as a result of everybody concerned is making the playoffs both approach. The one race the place the winner is in and the loser is out is the one for the final NL Wild Card spot, and it’s going down between divisional rivals: the Mets and the Braves.
It’s bizarre seeing so little precise drama in September. These two groups are the one ones with playoff odds between 20% and 80% proper now. That’s uncommon for this time of yr. There have been seven such groups final yr, six in 2022, and three within the top-heavy 2021 season. Even when we return to the 10-team playoff period, the years from 2015-2019 averaged 4 groups in that 20-80% vary with a month left within the season. Regardless of no actually dominant groups, the playoff races are abnormally set in stone this yr.
That solely makes the final race extra thrilling, although. In a single nook, we’ve the Braves, who got here into the yr as one of the best workforce in baseball. They have been so good, in truth, that we used them as a mannequin when delving into some new depth chart knowledge this spring. What would possibly the Braves seem like in the event that they misplaced Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. to damage? Our mannequin thought they’d be a .551 workforce.
In a robust case of actuality mirroring forecasting, they’re lacking each of these gamers, and some key contributors have missed chunks of time besides. Maybe not coincidentally, they’ve performed to a 76-64 document, a .543 successful proportion. It’s a traditional story: The Braves are an important workforce enjoying with out their very prime gamers and doing pretty effectively anyway. The division is out of attain, however not many groups win their division in a yr the place the reigning MVP and a prime 5 Cy Younger finisher each miss a lot of the season.
The opposite facet of the race is a band of merry overachievers who simply occur to play on a traditionally heartbreaking workforce. The Mets didn’t come into the season as playoff favorites – our odds gave them a 30% probability of qualifying for October, broadly in step with different public projections. This was alleged to be a down yr for them, the bridge between final yr’s Justin Verlander/Max Scherzer bonanza and a future crammed with Uncle Steve’s marquee additions and ticker tape parades.
That may nonetheless be the way in which issues go. We give the Braves a considerable edge in our odds – 67.9% as in comparison with 45.9% for New York. However that’s not the way in which the race goes at this actual second. The 2 groups are tied for the final Wild Card spot with 22 video games left to play. Useless warmth within the standings; lopsided odds to make the playoffs. That sounds fairly unusual.
The very first thing I love to do after I see an unintuitive outcome like this one is to check different predictions to the outlier. If we’re calling this an unbalanced race whereas each different statistical mannequin is saying it’s a tossup, there’s extra digging to be completed. If we’re broadly in step with everybody else, that’s simply as revealing.
Baseball Prospectus maintains their very own playoff odds. They’re constructed meaningfully in another way than ours, and we don’t share methodology or something, so apart from each being primarily based on the idea of projecting future efficiency, there isn’t a ton of overlap. They agree with our tackle the race – they’ve the Braves with a 69.1% probability of constructing the playoffs and the Mets with a 39.4% probability. Baseball Reference isn’t as certain – they’ve the Braves at 54.9% and the Mets at 48.1%. Lastly, playing markets have it 66% to 48%, fairly near each us and BP.
I used to be already inclined to take our mannequin at its phrase, and the proof solely leads me additional in that path. Baseball Reference’s mannequin is explicitly backward-looking; that’s a characteristic moderately than a bug, as a result of it makes it a lot simpler to calculate and extra intelligible, however a minimum of for me, that signifies that our mannequin has an inherent benefit in predicting the longer term. In previous years, I’ve examined the distinction between these two strategies, and located that incorporating projections results in higher outcomes.
Now that that’s settled, there’s one other apparent query: Why? That’s an enormous hole in odds contemplating every workforce’s document. You’d anticipate a tied race to have broadly comparable odds this late within the yr. This isn’t a season-spanning marathon; it’s a dash so brief that it looks like a pure toss-up. They’ve the identical document now, they usually don’t have many video games left. Why shouldn’t they be even?
Every workforce has 22 video games remaining. There’s no distinction within the amount, in different phrases. The standard, alternatively? The Mets have seven video games in opposition to division chief Philadelphia, three in opposition to Milwaukee, and three in opposition to the Braves. These are all robust ones. They do have a complete of 9 video games in opposition to the Reds, Blue Jays, and Nationals, however they’ve extra onerous video games left than straightforward ones.
In the meantime, the Braves have a barely simpler street. They’ve their very own 9 video games in opposition to the Reds, Blue Jays, and Nationals. Additionally they have three in opposition to the Marlins. They play the Dodgers 4 instances, which is at all times robust, and shut the season with three in opposition to the Mets and three in opposition to the Royals. We predict that they’re going to play opponents with an mixture .491 true expertise the remainder of the way in which, whereas we peg New York’s opposition at .509 true expertise. That’s a reasonably large hole – over a full season, that’s one thing like 4 wins in anticipated distinction. It’s extra like a half a recreation over the rest of the season.
One other feather in Atlanta’s cap? They play at house for the three video games the 2 groups will play in opposition to one another. That sequence will decide the playoff tiebreaker – they’re knotted at 5-5 to date this season, so whoever wins this three-game sequence can even win the season-long one. Having house discipline benefit in these video games actually issues. Dwelling groups win round 54% of the time in baseball over the long term. A 54% probability of successful a single recreation interprets to a 56% probability of successful a three-game sequence, so even when the Mets and Braves have been evenly matched, the tiebreaker edge would go to Atlanta.
That simply leaves the most important argument in favor of the Braves: They’re higher. There’s nothing that implies that from the way in which the groups have performed in 2024, to be clear. The 2 are extraordinarily shut in run differential – each are scoring and permitting runs on the tempo you’d anticipate from borderline playoff groups. Each have the underlying numbers to assist it. BaseRuns thinks that the Braves must be 77-62 and the Mets 78-62. That’s a statistical lifeless warmth. The Chris Sale-led Braves have allowed far fewer runs, however Francisco Lindor and the Mets offense have scored extra.
That counts for lots. Present efficiency informs all of our projection methods. To offer an instance, Mark Vientos got here into the season with a .319 wOBA projection. That’s a barely above-average offensive line, good for a 103 wRC+. Thus far this yr, he’s been a lot better than that. He has a 145 wRC+ on the season, and we’re now projecting him for a 116 mark (.331 wOBA) the remainder of the way in which. That’s higher than his profession numbers, even counting this yr’s outburst, as a result of projection methods weigh latest efficiency extra closely than knowledge from years in the past.
Loads of Mets match into that class. Lindor and J.D. Martinez have batted so much and crushed their projections by a mile; we anticipate each to be distinctive down the stretch. Even the Mets’ disappointing hitters aren’t doing significantly poorly this yr. Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo have been anticipated to be offensive linchpins, and whereas they haven’t fairly hit their preseason expectations, each of our fashions proceed to anticipate good issues from them the remainder of the way in which.
Atlanta, alternatively, has weathered a season of offensive disappointments. Marcell Ozuna has been excellent, however he’s the one Braves hitter with even a 120 wRC+. For comparability, six Atlanta regulars hit that mark final yr. This isn’t only a matter of lacking Acuña, although that clearly hasn’t helped. Matt Olson is in the midst of the worst yr of his profession. Sean Murphy’s surprising transformation into an offensive pumpkin couldn’t have come at a worse time. Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies had down seasons and are each on the IL. Michael Harris II didn’t fairly crack that listing (115 wRC+), however he’s hitting a desultory .251/.293/.375 this yr.
So sure, that’s all a bummer for Atlanta. However whereas a down 2024 has definitely lowered each our projection methods’ opinions of those gamers and my very own expectations for them, it’s not like 2023 didn’t occur. In case you depend 2024 twice as a lot as 2023, Matt Olson has a 125 blended wRC+. Pete Alonso checks in at 122. Harris has a 94 wRC+… and counterpart Harrison Bader is at 81. Murphy, who’s having by far the worst season of his profession after 5 straight strong offensive seasons, averages out to a 101 wRC+. Francisco Alvarez, the younger catcher everybody (together with me) has been drooling over for 2 years, is at 92.
In different phrases, there is perhaps some disappointing offensive performances in Atlanta, however they’re disappointing largely as a result of the gamers compiling these traces have already proven us that they’re extra gifted than that. That’s form of the purpose of projection methods – they cease us from overreacting to knowledge simply due to pesky dividing traces like “years” and “seasons.” It’s vital to think about all the knowledge that’s out there about gamers if you’re attempting to determine how they’ll do subsequent yr. Do you assume Bobby Witt Jr. goes to place up a 172 wRC+ subsequent yr? In all probability not! Do you assume Corbin Carroll goes to enhance on his 106 wRC+? Nearly definitely. Do you assume Alex Verdugo is as unhealthy as his 84 wRC+? Perhaps don’t reply that one.
You may take a look at the season-to-date stats all you need. You may speak about how the Mets have clutch hitters and guys peaking on the proper time and thrilling children. However do you actually assume that they’re going to maintain outscoring the Braves by half a run a recreation? That sounds unlikely to me, a minimum of as a central expectation. Our projections have the 2 groups even in run scoring in opposition to impartial opposition for the remainder of the yr. Positive, Atlanta is depleted, and the workforce’s finest wholesome hitters (outdoors of Ozuna) aren’t lighting the world on hearth. However even with out their finest hitters, the Braves have loads of offensive weapons. And hey, when you’re intent on slicing issues into tiny samples the place solely the latest knowledge issues: the Braves have out-hit the Mets previously month. Solely caring about latest samples cuts each methods, in spite of everything.
In case you settle for that the 2 offenses are roughly the identical, the explanation Atlanta is favored comes into focus. The Braves, regardless of Strider’s damage, have a superb pitching employees. Sale is the slam dunk Cy Younger winner. Reynaldo López has been a revelation. Max Fried is nice as at all times. Spencer Schwellenbach seems like one more Braves minor league success. The bullpen is the third-best in baseball, with a humiliation of late-inning arms.
In the meantime, the Mets are coping with damage problems with their very own. Whereas the Braves are lacking a number of gifted hitters, the Mets are feeling the pinch on the mound. Kodai Senga, their ace, has solely made one begin all season and received’t be again earlier than October on the earliest. Christian Scott, their prime pitching prospect and a welcome supply of upside, hasn’t pitched since mid-July. Paul Blackburn was considered one of their largest deadline acquisitions, and yep, you guessed it, he’s harm.
The Mets replacements have been strong when known as upon. David Peterson is having a profession yr, with a 2.75 ERA and 4.00 FIP. We predict he’ll be someplace within the 4.00 ERA vary the remainder of the way in which, which is kind of spectacular. Tylor Megill is on the alternative facet of the FIP-ERA hole, with a 4.95 ERA that belies his 3.79 FIP. However these guys are back-of-rotation fillers with third starter upside, they usually’re changing the workforce’s finest pitcher.
On the season, Mets starters are someplace between fifteenth (RA9) and twenty third (FIP) within the league in WAR. That’s partially due to some unhealthy performances from since-jettisoned choices. Adrian Houser was terrible earlier than getting DFA’ed. Blackburn was ineffective earlier than getting harm. However a few of it comes from the present rotation. Jose Quintana is displaying indicators of a late-career swoon. Luis Severino is a workhorse, however his run prevention numbers are proper round league common. Sean Manaea, the nominal ace, is roughly thirtieth in WAR league-wide.
None of this feels significantly out of step with these pitchers’ earlier careers. We’re projecting the Mets for one of many worst rotations in baseball the remainder of the way in which, twenty fifth in WAR, similar to they’ve been fairly unhealthy for a lot of the yr. In the meantime, Atlanta’s group got here into the yr already trying like the higher unit, they usually’ve completed nothing however enhance their projections since then. It didn’t take our fashions lengthy to imagine in Chris Sale’s resurgence; when the man with a profession 3.00 ERA begins pitching to a 3.00 ERA, you are able to do the mathematics. López’s projections haven’t budged a lot, so if something, we’re docking Atlanta’s rotation some factors. Heck, we didn’t even venture Schwellenbach for a single inning within the preseason, and he seems sensational.
Throw within the bullpen hole – the Mets’ unit is common, nothing like Atlanta’s dominant group – and we’re speaking a few 0.37 run-per-game hole in projected run prevention. In the meantime, the 2 offenses have equivalent projections. You must account for park results right here if you’re doing trigger and impact – Citi Discipline suppresses offense, which makes the Mets’ hitters look worse and their pitchers look higher – however the total level is obvious. The large factor we see being totally different between these two groups is that we predict this yr’s iteration of the Braves simply has higher pitchers.
How a lot better in probabilistic phrases? Fortunately, we will reply that query. I took the Braves’ projected full-season runs scored and allowed totals. That’s a +79 run differential and an 89.6-win Pythagorean projection. Add 0.37 runs per recreation to what they permit, they usually’d drop to an 82.9-win projection. Over 22 video games as a substitute of 162, that works out to 0.9 wins.
I estimate that half a win is price roughly a 5% odds differential. I took that from trying on the one-day change in Atlanta’s playoff odds in our coin flip mannequin once they misplaced yesterday whereas the Mets have been off. If half a win is 5 proportion factors, which means 0.9 wins comes out to 9 proportion factors. We all know from up above that the power of schedule discrepancy comes out to about half a win the remainder of the yr; that’s one other 5 proportion factors, 14 factors complete.
If New York and Atlanta every had the identical playoff odds (they add as much as greater than 100% since they might nip an NL West workforce for a slot), they’d have 57% odds. Now we have the Braves 11 proportion factors increased than that. That’s principally the identical because the 14 I’m estimating for power of schedule and run prevention differential. In different phrases, the again of the envelope math works right here.
Why does our playoff odds mannequin make the Braves a robust favourite over the Mets regardless of comparable information? It’s as a result of it considers the make-up of each groups in addition to their remaining schedules and reaches an knowledgeable conclusion. You don’t need to agree with all of its inputs. In case you assume that the Mets pitching employees is best than our numbers, be at liberty to mentally tighten that hole. In case you assume Atlanta’s offense will begin sputtering, hey, you’re the boss.
However when you assume our assumptions about workforce power are affordable, the outcome is smart. The mannequin didn’t give the Braves a 22-point hole in playoff probability on accident. It did so as a result of we venture them to permit fewer runs than the Mets in opposition to impartial opposition the remainder of the way in which. They’re enjoying in opposition to simpler opposition, although, not impartial. Add these two up, and you may solely account for the distinction in our odds. We’re projecting the Braves as 68%-46% favorites on this race as a result of we venture them to win extra video games – 1.2 extra, finally mannequin replace.
That looks like a satisfying reply, a minimum of to me. The mannequin isn’t pulling numbers out of skinny air. Its outputs are proper in step with what you’d anticipate when you solved every part from first ideas. Like I mentioned, the projections aren’t gospel, simply our greatest estimates. However the mannequin is placing out precisely what we’d anticipate given our inputs. We predict the Braves are simply higher, and clearly the projections feeding different playoff odds estimates do too. We quantify that perception with projections, put it into the mannequin, and get our solutions: Regardless that the Braves and Mets are tied within the standings, the Braves are meaningfully extra more likely to nonetheless be enjoying come October. That doesn’t predict the longer term – however I do assume it explains the state of affairs on the bottom proper now fairly effectively. It’s an uphill battle for New York, however a win tomorrow paired with an Atlanta loss would just about depart the groups on even footing.
