Final week, I wrote about Paul Goldschmidt’s prospects in free company, however didn’t speculate on a touchdown spot for the 2022 NL MVP. To not fear — when the FanGraphs Bluesky account recirculated the piece on Monday, the general public weighed in. One respondent thought the Yankees made sense, and whereas I don’t suppose the match is good for both participant or membership, the underlying logic is cheap sufficient. And right here I’ll add my very own spin on a possible Goldschmidt-Yankees partnership: It certain feels just like the Yankees love outdated first basemen.
In 2024, 34-year-old Anthony Rizzo and 35-year-old DJ LeMahieu mixed for 548 plate appearances and 1017 2/3 defensive innings at first base for the Yankees. (All ages on this piece are relative to the usual June 30 cutoff date except in any other case specified.) That’s 81.5% of the Yankees’ taking part in time by plate appearances and 70.0% by defensive innings. Over the previous 5 years, Yankees first basemen have the best common age within the league. Since Don Mattingly turned 30 in 1991, the Yankees’ most-used first baseman has been in his age-30 season or older in 28 of 34 seasons. In 12 of these seasons, the Yankees’ most-used first baseman has been 33 or older, together with in 2023 and 2024.
This bought me desirous about the concept of the outdated first baseman.
First base is to baseball what crabs are to the animal kingdom. On an extended sufficient timeline, each residing organism will flip into one. (Additionally a primary baseman’s mitt type of seems like a crab claw.) It’s the place outfielders go when their legs give out, the place catchers go when their knees give out, and the place third basemen go when their arms give out. Given the restricted bodily calls for of first base, it is sensible that this place would skew older.
However is it unhealthy to go along with an older first baseman?
Not essentially. Since 2020, 5 groups, together with the Yankees, have given not less than three quarters of their first base plate appearances to gamers of their age-30 seasons or older. These 5 groups embody two of the highest 4 in wRC+ on the place and three of the highest 10 in WAR. And having an outdated man at first base appears to be good for the workforce basically. Three of the 5 winningest groups of the previous decade are on this group, and the one workforce that’s below .500 in that span is the Diamondbacks, who gained the pennant in 2023.
There’s, nevertheless, a extra parsimonious approach to say all this.
Previous First Basemen Make Good Groups
| Staff | 30+ PA | wRC+ | WAR | Chief | PA | % of 30+ PA | % of whole PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 90.80% | 135 | 19.1 | Paul Goldschmidt | 2655 | 94.8% | 86.0% |
| HOU | 90.19% | 96 | 1.0 | Yuli Gurriel | 1392 | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| LAD | 86.87% | 136 | 21.4 | Freddie Freeman | 2076 | 75.8% | 65.8% |
| ARI | 80.05% | 107 | 10.3 | Christian Walker | 2240 | 91.7% | 73.4% |
| NYY | 78.22% | 101 | 4.0 | Anthony Rizzo | 1467 | 61.7% | 48.3% |
So would you like an outdated first baseman basically, or would you like Freddie Freeman? As a result of Freeman isn’t solely the Dodgers’ most-used over-30 first baseman since 2020, he additionally holds that distinction for the Braves, who changed him with one other extremely productive veteran, Matt Olson. Talking of latecomers, the Phillies have devoted solely 35.4% of their first base reps to over-30 gamers since 2020, however their present first baseman, Bryce Harper, solely turned 1) a primary baseman and a couple of) a 30-something comparatively lately. In a couple of years, I’m in all probability going to overlook I did this text and do the entire thing once more from scratch; count on to see Harper on the listing then.
There are two methods to get an outdated first baseman, and the Yankees have achieved each over time. The primary is to exit in free company and signal a real All-Star-level bat. These guys are inclined to hit the market late of their prime, so a workforce that goes out and indicators — to make use of this yr’s instance — Pete Alonso goes to have him within the lineup for many of his 30s.
These 28 seasons the place the Yankees had a 30-and-over first baseman included 4 from Jason Giambi and 6 from Mark Teixeira, each marquee free agent signings. Plus 4 extra from Tino Martinez, whom the Yankees acquired in a commerce, and 5 from Donnie Baseball. That is stating the plain, however when you’ve bought first baseman, simply hold on to him.
That’s true no matter age. The 9 groups with the most effective wRC+ by first basemen since 2020 contains 5 groups which have given greater than half their taking part in time to outdated guys, but additionally the three youngest groups on the listing by this metric: the Blue Jays, Rangers, and Mets. (The one workforce within the center is Harper’s Phillies.) So in case you have first baseman of any age, it’s best to maintain on to him.
After all, not everyone seems to be so fortunate. And that street results in Door no. 2, which is: Signal the slowest attainable man who’s ever hit 30 house runs in a season at any level up to now, and provides him the massive mitt.
Along with monitoring the proportion of plate appearances given to 30-and-over first basemen, I additionally appeared up the person leaders for every workforce. In 4 of these instances — Seattle, Kansas Metropolis, Minnesota, and Cleveland — the most-used outdated first baseman is Carlos Santana. Which is humorous sufficient as it’s, however he’s additionally second in 30-plus taking part in time amongst each Pirates and Brewers first basemen as nicely, and is simply 23 PA behind Connor Joe for first place on Pittsburgh’s leaderboard.
Santana’s a fantastic participant, however you don’t need him anchoring your lineup at this level in his profession.
Right here we have now the six groups within the Santana Zone: Groups which have devoted not less than 25% of their whole first base taking part in time to gamers 30 and older, however with no particular person first baseman receiving greater than half of the 30-and-over taking part in time.
The Santana Zone
| Staff | 30+% | wRC+ | WAR | Chief | PA | % of 30+ PA | % of whole PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 29.32% | 96 | 1.7 | Albert Pujols | 188 | 21.5% | 6.3% |
| MIA | 70.97% | 98 | 3.3 | Jesús Aguilar | 844 | 39.8% | 28.3% |
| MIL | 35.11% | 94 | 0.6 | Rhys Hoskins | 362 | 35.2% | 12.4% |
| PIT | 32.47% | 89 | -1.0 | Connor Joe | 381 | 40.8% | 13.3% |
| SFG | 68.92% | 121 | 12.3 | Brandon Belt | 791 | 38.3% | 26.4% |
| WSN | 39.80% | 113 | 8.3 | Joey Meneses | 425 | 35.9% | 14.3% |
I seen after I made this chart that Santana isn’t really the most-used 30-and-over first baseman for any of those groups. I’ve determined I don’t care, and I’m naming it the Santana Zone anyway.
Anyway, having a rotating forged of bounce-back candidates isn’t any approach to construct a workforce. Of the six golf equipment within the Santana Zone, just one — the Giants — is within the high 10 within the league in both wRC+ or WAR. And 4 of those groups rank twenty third or decrease in workforce wins over the previous 5 years. And these six franchises have mixed to win just one playoff sequence within the 2020s: Miami’s three-game upset of the Cubs in 2020. These are, broadly talking, not good groups.
In different phrases, older first basemen assist your workforce win after they’re good. However they harm your workforce after they’re not good. Everybody following to date? Excellent.
I’m having a more durable time determining what the Yankees thought Rizzo was alleged to be. Over three and a half seasons in New York, Rizzo hit .234/.326/.409, which is a wRC+ of 109 and a complete WAR of three.6. That’s not superior. However in his final stroll yr, Rizzo was a 2.5 WAR participant with a 131 wRC+. Getting into his age-33 season, the Yankees gave him a two-year contract value $20 million per season. It’s solely after he signed that contract that he began to get harm and his bat went severely downhill.
So the Yankees lived with what they bought from Rizzo the previous two seasons — the final spark from an outdated man nearing retirement. That would appear to ask a run at Goldschmidt. However the wage they handed out would point out that they hoped for one thing extra. And in a down free agent yr for first basemen, Rizzo was near the highest of the market on the place. They could go for an older first baseman once more, however fairly than stay within the Santana Zone, the Yankees can be better-served chasing Walker and even Alonso, who turns 30 in two weeks.
The Yankees do love an older first baseman, however they’ve higher choices this time. Age is only a quantity, however so is wRC+, and we all know which one is extra vital.
