Former Rayo Vallecano supervisor Andoni Iraola made the transfer to the Premier League in the summertime of 2023 with a burgeoning fame as a tactician however little to point the revolution he would lead on the south coast.
Bournemouth had simply completed fifteenth within the first season of their second ever spell within the high division. Gary O’Neil was shoved apart to usher in the Spaniard, a daring resolution not not like the one which introduced Mauricio Pochettino to England simply down the M27 a decade in the past.
Sacking a younger English supervisor and hiring a modern identify from overseas attracted the standard criticism however, a season and a half in, Bournemouth’s willingness to take their shot has the distinct whiff of a strategic masterstroke.
Bournemouth have by no means been higher – and they need to be even larger within the desk
AFC Bournemouth have been revolutionised beneath Andoni Iraola (Picture credit score: Getty Photographs)
The Cherries are in uncharted waters. Iraola guided them to twelfth final season, the very best league end of their historical past. Midway by 2024-25, they’re wanting down at twelfth from seventh and seeing Aston Villa , Tottenham Hotspur , Manchester United and Everton among the many groups beneath them.
However Bournemouth’s analysts gained’t have accomplished far more than scratch the floor of the workforce’s underlying efficiency information earlier than finding a curious inconsistency that implies they could possibly be doing even higher.
Antoine Semenyo in motion for Bournemouth (Picture credit score: Ben Hoskins/Getty Photographs)
Iraola’s transition-based recreation depends on tempo out vast and power in midfield, and it’s yielding objectives aplenty for Bournemouth this season.
They’ve scored 29 occasions of their first 19 Premier League video games. Mixed with a decrease variety of objectives towards than everybody however the high 5, that’s sufficient to place them within the chase for a European place they’ve by no means had earlier than.
It’s not possible to criticise that. Ten seasons in the past, Bournemouth gained the Championship and it was by far their historic pinnacle. Ten seasons earlier than that they had been a mid-table League One facet. Ten earlier than that, they retained their third-tier standing due to the Nice Escape beneath Mel Machin.
Bournemouth’s rise hasn’t been achieved with out vital funding or bumps within the highway however the query the Cherries evaluation workforce will probably be asking now isn’t how they acquired there – it’s how the Premier League’s worst efficiency towards anticipated objectives (xG) took place, what it means, and what the second half of the season seems to be like if it adjustments.
Bournemouth have racked up the third-highest xG within the division. In keeping with Fbref information , they might have been anticipated to attain 37.4 objectives of their first 19 video games of the season.
They’re in need of that by 8.7 objectives or almost half a objective per recreation. Crystal Palace are closest at 7.1 beneath anticipated. Embody penalties and Bournemouth are 8.4 objectives decrease than anticipated.
The quickest interpretation of this info is that Bournemouth are making enough probabilities of excessive sufficient high quality to make up for the truth that they’re not taking them on the price they need to be.
Solely Manchester Metropolis have taken extra pictures than Bournemouth this season however the Cherries are within the backside 5 for objectives per shot heading in the right direction in addition to the underside seven for the proportion of their pictures that hit the goal.
If we assume the numbers will converge to a point – that Bournemouth are neither grasp likelihood creators nor excessively profligate finishers, each of that are potential however don’t seem like true proper now – it can occur in one among two methods.
Both their xG per 90 minutes will drop, wherein case their efficiency towards it (objectives minus xG) will stage off, or their fortunes in entrance of objective will enhance and they’re going to rating from extra of the high-quality probabilities they make.
A discount in xG doesn’t bear occupied with if poor ending proves to be a persistent drawback however optimists among the many Vitality Stadium workers will fancy the flexibility of Justin Kluivert, Evanilson, Antoine Semenyo and Dango Ouattara to fireside the Cherries into Europe for the primary time.
