The Fable of Luis Arraez

“Among the finest hitters in baseball – final three years, batting titles with three totally different groups.” That’s the very first thing viewers heard about Luis Arraez this postseason, a quote from the underside of the primary inning of the Padres-Braves Wild Card sequence. Arraez singled and promptly scored on a Fernando Tatis Jr. house run. It was simply the way you’d draw it up, and San Diego gained a 4-0 laugher. That’s the promise of Arraez – a near-automatic baserunner fully proof against strikeout pitching.

“He’s a tricky dude to face… He may set the tone identical to Ohtani may set the tone for his or her respective golf equipment.” That one comes from the final sport Arraez performed this postseason, as he was mired in a deep droop. After that first single, he went 2-for-8 with two extra singles the remainder of the Atlanta sequence. Then he went a desultory 4-for-22 (all singles) within the NLDS towards Dodgers. He fulfilled loads of the Arraez-ian promise we count on – only one strikeout in 31 plate appearances – however he merely couldn’t purchase successful.

It’s laborious to be taught a lot from a down sequence like that. Clearly, Arraez wasn’t contributing to the Padres offense – nobody contributes after they publish a 27 wRC+. However hidden in that assertion is an unspoken counterfactual: When Arraez goes, it’s implied, the Padres go. His single-hitting prowess is the straw that stirs the drink for a unbelievable offense that ranked eighth within the majors in runs scored this yr regardless of enjoying in one of many hardest offensive environments on the market.

There’s only one drawback with that assertion: It’s not true. Arraez didn’t stir the drink for the Padres this yr, whilst he cruised to his third straight batting title. That sounds loopy, nevertheless it’s true. There’s simply one thing about that shiny batting common that messes with our potential to guage gamers.

What’s the purpose of hitting in baseball? It’s to attain runs, clearly. There’s a beautiful statistic, RE24, that measures this instantly. RE24 is kind of easy. It takes the run expectancy of an inning earlier than every plate look and compares it to the run expectancy afterward, with the distinction credited or debited to the hitter. It’s context-dependent, which is clearly essential whenever you’re speaking about scoring runs. Males on second and third with two outs? A single is method higher than a stroll, and RE24 tells you that: A two-RBI single counts for 1.63 runs above common in that scenario, whereas a stroll counts for 0.22 runs. Bases empty to guide off the inning? A stroll and a single are the identical, 0.4 runs.

Batting common, on-base share, slugging share, even OPS+ and wRC+ — none of them actually seize this. RE24 measures it fairly effectively. It’s not excellent, in fact. It doesn’t take group composition under consideration, so getting on base in entrance of Juan Soto and Aaron Choose is undervalued. That’s a mark in Arraez’s favor, for the document — his group has some actually good hitters batting after him, so getting on base is price a hair greater than a league common measure would recommend. RE24 can also be extraordinarily noisy, as a result of batters have little management over the conditions they’re put in, so loads of what we’re measuring is context somewhat than expertise. However for those who’re in search of hitters who helped their groups rating extra runs — not theoretical runs or “in the long term this ability set is most popular” runs, however precise runs — it’s an excellent metric. It even offers a bonus for outs that allow runners advance, the cherished “productive out,” whereas subtracting factors for hitting into double performs.

So who was the most effective hitter in baseball by RE24 this yr? That may be Choose, and by a large margin. He added a whopping 95.7 runs of worth in 2024. Shohei Ohtani completed second with 79.6 runs, whereas Soto was third with 69; Tatis leads for playoff RE24. If you happen to had been explaining baseball to somebody who had by no means heard of it earlier than and had no idea of any statistics in any respect, you’d use one thing like this to level out who the most effective offensive gamers are. It’s easy: They’re those who assist their groups rating essentially the most runs.

The leaders of this listing completely move the instinct take a look at. Watch their video games, and also you’ll sense how a lot they matter. They’re consistently both amping up the stress or cashing in runners on base. They’re the highest-stress plate appearances for opponents. Nobody is getting a soda throughout their at-bat as a result of the sport may activate what occurs throughout it.

You may ascend to the highest of this leaderboard in additional methods than one. Jurickson Profar options extremely on the chart with out being a fearsome house run hitter; he will get on base incessantly and likewise sends runners on the basepaths house with a boatful of singles and doubles. Jackson Chourio, Mookie Betts, and Jarren Duran are within the high 25. Energy hitters, strike zone wizards, and doubles retailers all get their due.

Arraez’s RE24 clocked in at destructive 3.34 this yr. Now, that’s not as dangerous because it sounds. We calculate RE24 based mostly on final yr’s run scoring atmosphere and true it up at yr’s finish (we replace it after the conclusion of each season in our regular end-of-year updates). There have been roughly 900 fewer runs scored this yr than final, and league-wide RE24 checked in at -946 – this may steadiness out (we even have some extra-inning changes to make). You may assign every plate look a slight optimistic adjustment to make up for that and recenter it round zero. That may add 3.5 runs to Arraez’s complete – and make him nearly precisely common.

Even wRC+, which has a decrease opinion of Arraez than the batting common apologists singing his praises, considered him as above common this yr. “A success is best than a stroll” is likely one of the central arguments that these people make in advancing batting common over extra holistic measures of offensive manufacturing. There’s a disconnect right here someplace.

The factor is that Arraez, like all hitters, bats with the bases empty a very good little bit of the time. We are able to evaluate how Arraez does in these conditions to the typical hitter fairly simply. The essential numbers are on-base share (as a result of right here, a stroll actually is nearly as good as a single) and additional bases per plate look. With no runners to advance, it solely issues the place the batter finally ends up.

In these conditions, Arraez acquits himself effectively in terms of reaching base. He posted a .328 OBP with the bases empty, meaningfully higher than the league mark of .302. What does that imply by way of run expectancy? I needed a extra exact reply than a blanket adjustment, so I created my very own run expectancy desk utilizing knowledge from each common season sport this yr (excluding the ninth inning and additional innings, the place run scoring will get abbreviated because of walk-offs). Right here’s that matrix, only for posterity’s sake:

With that in hand, I plugged within the numbers, and shockingly, Arraez’s on-base ability doesn’t make him a invaluable hitter with nobody on base. That’s as a result of Arraez is just ever getting you first base, roughly, and that’s simply not as invaluable as you’d suppose. With nobody out, you possibly can get on base at a .360 clip with no extra-base hits by any means and be value-neutral. I bought that quantity by evaluating the distinction between what you acquire by placing a runner on first with nobody out (.399 runs) and what you lose by going from no outs to at least one out with the bases empty (-.226 runs).

That breakeven on-base share will get increased because the outs tick up, naturally – a runner on first will get much less invaluable because the probability of driving him in earlier than the inning ends goes down. It’s .387 with one out and .421 with two outs. If you happen to’re simply going to first, you must do it so much to make the mathematics work. Everyone knows this implicitly; when your group’s pitcher walks somebody with nobody out, it appears like a catastrophe. After they stroll somebody with two out, it’s a minor misstep.

These OBPs are actually laborious to realize. However run expectancy sums as much as zero by default. How can that be the case? It’s since you’re allowed to get additional bases too. Doubles, triples, and homers add way more to run expectancy than singles. Throughout the league, roughly 25% of on-base occasions (walks, HBPs, and hits) produce additional bases. Arraez is down at 17% – and consequently, regardless of a .328 OBP with the bases empty, he’s value the Padres 2.7 runs with the bases empty this yr. Now, it’s most likely barely lower than that, as a result of the fellows after him are fairly good at hitting house runs, and people will drive him in from first simply as certainly as they are going to from second. However amongst Padres with 200 or extra plate appearances this yr, Arraez was eighth in runs per plate look, even main off and batting in entrance of the facility hitters. If his job is simply to attain a ton of runs, it’s truthful to say that he didn’t knock it out of the park this yr.

One other mind-set about this puzzle? We all know that Arraez was a barely above-average hitter by wRC+ this yr. That statistic, and others prefer it, deal with a single as higher than a stroll, as in fact they need to. They’re holistic measures of context-neutral manufacturing, and there are many spots the place a stroll isn’t nearly as good as a single. However with the bases empty, there’s no distinction. Arraez is getting over-valued in these particular conditions. The constants in wRC+ will inform you that on common, 5 walks and 4 singles (plus an out) present equal worth. However that’s on common, not with the bases empty – there 5 equals 5.

There’s an extra problem at play right here. One of many causes individuals extol Arraez’s ability set is that he places the ball in play. You may’t advance a runner with a strikeout – or you possibly can, nevertheless it’s a lot much less possible than doing so with a ball in play. However with the bases empty, that benefit is totally gone. There are not any runners to advance. You both attain base otherwise you don’t.

So let’s settle for that Arraez isn’t serving to his group on this scenario. Sadly, he’s batting with the bases empty way more incessantly than your common hitter. Two thirds of his plate appearances got here with the bases empty, as in comparison with 57% for all batters. That’s completely a perform of batting him leadoff – his bases empty plate look fee is lifeless common for leadoff hitters.

To his credit score, Arraez’s singles do carry additional weight in some apparent conditions: runners in scoring place with a base open. The rationale singles are higher than walks is as a result of they will advance runners already on base. Arraez was superior in these conditions in 2024. I depend 84 of them (first and third, second and third, simply second, simply third) in his sport logs, and he hit a bonkers .434/.476/.487 in these plate appearances. Yeah, that’ll do, to the tune of 9.36 runs above common. Juicy!

However we’re doing a little cherry choosing there by slicing issues up into small samples. Arraez was a lot worse with both a runner on first, first and second, or with the bases loaded. He hit .316/.321/.404, which doesn’t sound terrible, however OBP and slug are the related numbers when there’s a runner on first. That’s as a result of a stroll does loads of work on the runner development entrance, whereas extra-base hits can set the merry-go-round going and break the station-to-station sport broad open. However Arraez didn’t excel at getting on base (his OBP was solely 5 factors above league common with runners on) or hitting for energy (his slug was 20 factors beneath common) in these moments. He additionally bought unfortunate; he hit .250 with no walks after I add a “two out” filter to the above, and maintaining the inning going is the important thing a part of batting with two outs. In all, he misplaced 9.2 runs right here.

Lots of that comes out within the wash, as you may count on after I’m arbitrarily separating base/out states. With runners on base and two outs general, as in comparison with separated into base open/base not open subcategories, Arraez batted .326/.360/.431 and had a optimistic run worth. This appears like noise to me – I don’t suppose there’s any true expertise purpose for Arraez to battle with two outs in some runners-on conditions and excel in others.

Right here’s one other method of placing it: In complete, Arraez was a better-than-average hitter with runners on base. He occurred to get unfortunate by way of when he scattered these hits; he hit .311/.333/.333 with two runners on (48 PA), and .154/.214/.154 with the bases loaded (14 PA). In the meantime, he hit .390/.407/.487 with just one runner on (162 PA). Even these out, and we’d be taking a look at a optimistic run worth, round 4 runs if I pressure the identical batting line in each scenario. His positive aspects right here don’t simply come from his singles – additionally they come from him placing the ball in play, the place the additional developments he creates outnumber the double performs he hits into.

However Arraez bats with runners on base lower than the typical hitter. He bats with the bases empty excess of the typical hitter. And people singles simply don’t assist as a lot as you suppose. Further-base hits are the true run-scoring foreign money. Singles solely generally produce extra development than walks, and so they nearly by no means advance the runner previous first. Doubles and up all the time do each.

(As an apart, that is an argument for why he ought to bat third, with some runners to drive in with all these singles. Folks ought to respect him for his unprecedented contact expertise in an period of strikeouts and homers. However one way or the other, as a result of he retains profitable batting titles, he’s typecast as an elite leadoff hitter, and I simply can’t wrap my head round it.)

In previous years, Arraez has chipped in his fair proportion of extra-base hits because of some line drive doubles within the hole. However this yr, he batted 55 extra instances than he did final yr and gathered 4 fewer extra-base hits. He batted 69 extra instances than he did in 2022 and had one fewer extra-base hit. The one yr his fee of additional bases per plate look has been solely decrease was in 2021, his worst offensive season. It’s laborious to understand an influence outage in a singles hitter, however Arraez had one this yr, and it completely affected his general manufacturing.

This could be manifestly apparent for those who solely checked out holistic measures of offensive manufacturing. Arraez’s wRC+ is down sharply, from a 130 mark in 2022 and 2023 to 109 this season. His OPS+ fell from 128 to 106. His wOBA, xwOBA, DRC+, batting common, on-base share, and slugging share all pointed a technique. It’s fairly clear that he was a meaningfully worse hitter this yr than in years previous. He bought on base 22% greater than common and slugged 13% above common in 2023; this yr, he bought on base a mere 10% greater than common and slugged 3% beneath common.

Batting common sticks in our head as a result of it’s one of many first baseball statistics we be taught. However in the identical method that barrel fee and most exit velocity don’t paint an ideal image of worth, batting common is lacking tons of helpful inputs. It’s usually correlated – Ted Williams and Barry Bonds hit for common as a result of they hit for all the things – nevertheless it’s only a easy statistical marker, and people could be deceptive with out the correct context.

“This man is a three-time batting champion” is undoubtedly true. But it surely’s additionally true that this model of Arraez wasn’t a distinction maker for San Diego. Twelve totally different Padres hitters produced extra RE24 than Arraez. It’s an actual disgrace. I respect Arraez as a participant. He’s a whole anachronism, and when he’s at peak type, he’s a invaluable hitter. However as a result of he occurs to have a excessive batting common, individuals who declare they’re “anti-statistics” and “old-fashioned” suppose he’s a star. A excessive batting common doesn’t make you a star any greater than a excessive barrel fee does. They’re each good. I’d choose both to the alternative. However neither is a few type of assured marker of success.

I assume that the individuals who solely care about batting common gained’t discover this place very compelling. They’re most likely past convincing at this level. However I hope that I’m mistaken, as a result of I actually do consider in my argument. Once I trot out whomps per whiff or some type of barrel-rate leaderboard, I’m not attempting to say that these guys are all essentially stars. I’m merely stating a part of excellent hitting, and saying that these gamers are good at it.

Batting common is like that too! It measures precisely what it says it measures. Utilizing it as an all-purpose offensive statistic is lacking the purpose. If you happen to’re attempting to know why, you don’t should look additional than Luis Arraez, the 2024 Nationwide League batting champion – and a miscast leadoff hitter who value his group 2.6 runs relative to common on the plate this yr, by far the worst full season of his profession.