David Bednar has been the topic of commerce hypothesis for the previous few seasons. For probably the most half, that was a testomony to his effectiveness. Bednar broke out as a leverage reliever with 60 2/3 innings of two.23 ERA ball throughout his first season with the Pirates in 2021. He carried that into the ninth inning. Between 2022-23, the massive righty mixed for a 2.27 ERA whereas putting out greater than 30% of batters confronted over 111 appearances. He locked down 58 video games, together with an NL-leading 39 saves in 2023.
That manufacturing got here on rebuilding groups. Pittsburgh was nowhere near the postseason. Different groups little doubt tried to pry Bednar away, however the Bucs by no means appeared considering transferring him. He’s a Pittsburgh native who appeared like a lockdown late-game weapon. The Bucs management him via 2026 and certainly envisioned fielding a playoff workforce earlier than then.
Bednar may resurface as a commerce candidate within the coming weeks however beneath a lot totally different circumstances. He’s coming off by far the worst season of his profession. The query now shouldn’t be whether or not the Pirates ought to promote excessive on an reasonably priced, breakout nearer. It’s whether or not to maneuver on in a cost-saving measure at a time when his commerce worth has hit a low ebb.
Even with the understanding that reliever efficiency may be unstable, Bednar’s 2024 season is confounding. After rattling off consecutive sub-3.00 performances in his first three full seasons, he allowed 5.77 earned runs per 9 this yr. That’s not a mirrored image of poor batted ball outcomes that may very well be dismissed as luck. Bednar’s peripherals tanked throughout the board.
His strikeout price had landed between 28% and 33% in every of his first three years. That fell to 22.1% this previous season, barely beneath the league common for relievers. Bednar’s stroll share jumped from the 7-8% vary to almost 11%. He allowed extra residence runs (9) in 57 2/3 innings this yr than he’d given up (seven) throughout 119 frames within the earlier two seasons mixed. Bednar misplaced loads of whiffs on each his four-seam fastball and curveball in comparison with prior seasons. Opponents teed off on the heater, specifically, hitting .256 and connecting on six longballs.
Bednar began the season terribly, permitting 14 runs in 10 innings via the top of Might. He managed a lot better outcomes over the following two months, albeit with out the extent of swing-and-miss to which he’d been accustomed. Bednar missed a pair weeks main into the All-Star Break with an indirect pressure. The wheels got here fully off popping out of the Break, as he gave up 16 runs over his subsequent 14 2/3 frames.
The Pirates, who had plummeted from competition, pulled Bednar from the ninth inning on the finish of August. By that time within the yr, the main target was on getting him proper going into the offseason. Bednar’s run prevention in September was higher, as he allowed a manageable 5 runs (4 earned) over 10 2/3 frames. But he walked one other 10 hitters with 9 strikeouts in largely low-leverage spots. It wasn’t a powerful end.
It’d be simpler to clarify the dip in efficiency if Bednar’s velocity had tanked getting back from the indirect pressure. That’s not the case. His fastball averaged north of 97 MPH from the beginning of Might onward. His 97.2 MPH common heater for the season was the very best of his profession. Bednar didn’t lose any life on his splitter or curveball. His stuff hasn’t dramatically deteriorated. His outcomes by no means persistently turned the nook, although.
That leaves GM Ben Cherington and his entrance workplace in a tough spot. Bednar’s early-career dominance earned him a stable $4.51MM wage throughout his first run via arbitration. He’ll be due a elevate even on the heels of a down yr. Arbitration salaries are designed to escalate as a participant accrues service time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz tasks Bednar for a $6.6MM sum if tendered a contract for 2025. That’s the very best determine in Pittsburgh’s arbitration class and would make him the fourth-highest paid participant on the roster as issues stand.
A $6.6MM wage can be a cut price if Bednar pitched at anyplace close to the extent he confirmed from 2021-23. It’s clearly not the form of cash the Pirates (or any workforce) would wish to dedicate for his ’24 outcomes. The Pittsburgh entrance workplace yearly works with a good finances from possession. That didn’t cease the Pirates from committing a $10.5MM wage to Aroldis Chapman final offseason, suggesting they’re prepared to take some probabilities on gifted however unstable aid pitching.
They’ll weigh the danger on Bednar alongside the necessity for a number of additions to a nicely below-average offense. Pittsburgh doesn’t have an excellent bullpen, although somebody like Colin Holderman or waiver discover Dennis Santana may get a closing alternative if the Pirates dealt the two-time All-Star.
It’s unlikely the Bucs would non-tender Bednar. He needs to be too gifted to surrender with out getting something in return. A sell-low commerce is believable. There are presumably groups which have extra budgetary flexibility than the Pirates possess that may be completely happy to gamble one thing like $6.6MM on a return to type. That’d be a troublesome tablet for a Pittsburgh entrance workplace that has certainly declined a lot better presents over time than those that’ll be on the desk this winter.
Picture courtesy of USA Immediately Sports activities.
