The Chicago Cubs received their offseason into gear Monday morning, with the reported signing of veteran left-handed pitcher Matthew Boyd to a two-year contract value $14.5 million per yr, plus incentives. Hey, Boyd is a reputation folks know, and he had that one actually good yr some time again, didn’t he? There’s received to be a purpose the Cubs are handing out a multi-year deal for nearly $30 million to a pitcher who made eight begins in 2024, hasn’t damaged 80 innings in a season since 2019, and turns 34 earlier than the beginning of spring coaching.
It is sensible, however you must work a little bit to see it.
Peak Matthew Boyd appeared in 2019, when he was within the high 10 in strikeout fee amongst certified starters and threw 185 1/3 innings. Sadly, Boyd additionally allowed an American League-leading 39 residence runs and performed in entrance of a Detroit Tigers staff that was past canine doodoo, ending 47-114. So for all that splashy strikeout fee, all of the Garrett Crochet-but-earlier-and-without-the-fastball-velocity, Boyd posted a 4.56 ERA in his profession yr.
He was one of many worst pitchers in baseball within the shortened 2020 season, and after that couldn’t keep wholesome. However, he popped up for a quick however efficient stint as a reliever for the Mariners late in 2022, and helped them break the AL’s longest playoff drought on the time. It was particularly significant for a participant who’d grown up outdoors of Seattle, and until your coronary heart is manufactured from stone, Boyd’s tearful post-clinch interview will make you need to hug a stranger.
A reunion with the Tigers was reduce brief when Boyd blew out his elbow in mid-2023 — and simply as nicely; it was going fairly poorly anyway. Cleveland signed him off the road on the finish of June 2024; six weeks later he was within the large league rotation, and are available October he allowed only a single earned run over 11 2/3 innings in three playoff begins.
I believe it’s plain for anybody to see why the Cubs would need to give Boyd a shot within the rotation; he was very good down the stretch and within the postseason. However two years and $29 million, plus incentives? For a man whose final begin of greater than six innings got here on April 24, 2021?
One of the best ways I can put that is that all the pitching market is 2015 Wealthy Hill now.
If you’d like a no. 1 starter, a pitcher who can reliably shut down an opponent within the playoffs and throw near 200 innings a yr — Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole, possible Corbin Burnes in a couple of weeks’ time — the going fee is about $40 million a yr on a multi-year contract. For a pitcher who can come near that, you’re taking a look at someplace between the excessive 20s and low 30s per yr, over a contract of 5 years or extra.
Burnes and Blake Snell can demand that as a result of there are only a few pitchers on the market like them. Groups which are both unwilling or unable to chase the highest of the market need to compromise. For one or two years, within the low-to-mid tens of tens of millions of {dollars} a season, you will get a dependable innings eater who’ll most likely should be shelved come the postseason. Or you may attempt to catch lightning in a bottle.
The Cubs tried the previous in December 2022, signing Jameson Taillon to a four-year, $68 million contract. And he’s been fairly good. A yr later, they took a danger on Shota Imanaga, who was too brief, didn’t have preferrred fastball velocity, allowed too many residence runs, and had by no means confronted American skilled opposition on any form of common foundation. Imanaga was even higher.
A decade in the past, making an attempt to get one over on the beginning pitching market was fairly low-cost. In 2015, Hill got here again from indy ball, almost a decade faraway from his finest main league season, and put up bonkers numbers in a four-start tryout with the Crimson Sox. The A’s noticed Hill, born anew after being baptized in a waterfall of curveballs, and thought they may get him to stick with it for a full season. It value them solely $6 million to attempt.
Taking a flier prices extra now. The Cubs have assured almost 5 instances that quantity to Boyd, who had a pair respectable seasons again when Recreation of Thrones was nonetheless on TV, and whose arms are tied to his torso with optimism and a Gordian knot of sutures. The Cubs clearly hope he’ll be higher and extra sturdy than he’s proven; greater than that, they’ve guess $29 million that they’ve recognized one thing inside him that they will construct on.
The Cubs have been fairly mediocre the previous few seasons, so it’s laborious to level at them and say, “That is what they do nicely,” however left-handed beginning pitchers with out elite velocity have been a power of theirs. Not simply Imanaga, however Justin Steele as nicely. Each of these pitchers, like Boyd, hand over a whole lot of fly balls as nicely. (Boyd and Imanaga greater than Steele, admittedly.)
I figured that regardless that Boyd is the largest of the three, his low arm slot would give him the same launch level to Imanaga, however that’s about the place the similarities finish. Throwing arm and fastball velocity apart, these three have comparatively little in widespread.
What Unites Left-Handed Cubs Starters Is… Not That A lot, Really
| Pitcher | Horizontal Launch | Vertical Launch | FB Velocity | FB IVB | FB IHB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boyd | 2.23 toes | 5.45 toes | 92.0 mph | 13.9 in. | 11.4 in. |
| Imanaga | 2.56 toes | 5.43 toes | 91.7 mph | 18.3 in. | 10.2 in. |
| Steele | 2.16 toes | 6.12 toes | 91.6 mph | 13.2 in. | 0.2 in. |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Steele is generally fastball-slider, whereas Imanaga is fastball-splitter, enjoying ridiculous rise on his four-seamer towards a hellacious low-spin splitter that’s in contrast to something Boyd throws.
Boyd has a extremely various repertoire, throwing 5 pitches, none greater than 38% of the time. And in contrast to Imanaga, who’s extra up-and-down-ey, Boyd’s arsenal is extraordinarily sideways-ey. Right here’s what Boyd threw in aggressive video games in 2024, common season and playoffs mixed.
The place *Is* Matt Boyd’s Bat Void?
| Pitch | RHB Utilization | LHB Utilization | Velocity | IVB | IHB | Spin Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seamer | 42.4% | 19.8% | 92.0 mph | 14.1 in. | -11.6 in. | 2,351 rpm |
| Changeup | 28.8% | 15.1% | 80.7 mph | 5.9 in. | -15.2 in. | 1,888 rpm |
| Slider | 13.4% | 34.3% | 79.5 mph | -3.2 in. | 7.0 in. | 2,494 rpm |
| Sinker | 5.0% | 29.7% | 91.8 mph | 8.7 in. | -16.5 in. | 2,335 rpm |
| Curveball | 10.3% | 1.2% | 73.5 mph | -8.8 in. | 13.1 in. | 2,343 rpm |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
There are two issues I like about Boyd’s arsenal, as expressed right here. The primary is that a whole lot of four-pitch pitchers have fully totally different repertoires for hitters on either side of the plate, so it’s probably not one large bucket of pitches to select from a lot because it’s two small buckets. Boyd has totally different major fastballs for lefties and righties, in addition to totally different major breaking balls. Like most pitchers, he throws extra breaking balls to same-handed hitters and extra changeups to opposite-handed hitters.
However he has a minimum of 4 pitches within the combine to each lefties and righties, which makes it tougher to take a seat on a selected pitch. Particularly as a result of his four-seamer and sinker, and his changeup and slider, are so carefully matched in velocity.
Which leads into level no. 2: The horizontal motion. Boyd has pitches with a minimum of a foot of common horizontal break, moving into both path. He has two pitches with a minimum of 15 inches of common arm-side run — his sinker and his changeup. That’s a ton of motion — greater than you’ll discover from a breaking ball, aside from probably the most elite sweepers. In 2024, solely 5 righty pitchers had two totally different choices that averaged 15 inches or extra of break free from right-handed hitters. And Boyd can do it both within the low 90s or the low 80s. Strive overlaying each of these pitches.
Having such reverse break permits Boyd to play keepaway. Final season, 476 pitchers threw 500 or extra pitches between the common season and playoffs. Boyd was thirty fourth in share of pitches that broke away from the hitter. Imanaga was no. 1. After all, that’s not the one technique to pitch; Steele was fourth from the underside on that checklist.
Let’s play with the parameters a little bit. In 2024, 56.1% of Boyd’s pitches moved away from the hitter by 10 inches or extra. That was sixteenth finest in baseball, one spot forward of Framber Valdez. Somewhat additional down the leaderboard you’ll discover two different lefties who had the form of mid-30s renaissance Boyd is hoping for: Chris Sale (nineteenth) and Sean Manaea (twenty second).
To me, Boyd’s potential to maneuver the ball away from the hitter in all circumstances and velocity bands is the standout argument for making such a big dedication to him. Particularly as a result of it both matches or dovetails with what the Cubs have their different two lefties doing, and double-especially as a result of Sale and Manaea had such large seasons after being within the wilderness, nicely, mainly so long as Boyd had been.
However it’s nonetheless a $29 million dedication primarily based on 11 begins and 51 1/3 innings of labor. Given to a participant who was actually lifeless final amongst certified starters in WAR in 2020, which is more moderen than his final full league-average season. However $29 million in assured cash doesn’t purchase a positive factor anymore. Contemplating what the Dodgers are paying Snell and Tyler Glasnow lately, I’m not optimistic $150 million even will get you a positive factor.
So if the Cubs aren’t prepared to swim in that a part of the free agent pool, they’ve received to select their targets fastidiously and hope they know what they’re doing. As a result of it doesn’t appear to be there’s such a factor as a low-risk, high-upside free agent starter anymore.
