Tanner Rainey Is the Lowest-Leverage Reliever in Baseball

I typed the command “high-leverage reliever fangraphs.com” into Google over the weekend and set the search vary to the previous month. About 130 outcomes got here up. Subsequent, I ran the identical search, besides with “low-leverage reliever” as a substitute. This time, Google instructed me there weren’t “many nice matches” for my search and steered I strive “utilizing phrases that may seem” on the web page I used to be in search of. Message obtained, Google. Apparently, our protection right here at FanGraphs is biased towards gamers who truly maintain significant affect over the outcomes of video games. That simply gained’t do!

All joking apart, there’s a quite simple motive we don’t write about low-leverage relievers that always. Low-leverage relievers don’t actually exist, not less than not in the identical means high-leverage relievers do. For one factor, relievers are naturally going to enter video games in higher-leverage spots as a result of pitchers usually tend to exit video games in higher-leverage spots. The typical leverage index when getting into video games (gmLI) for relievers this season is 1.12; that’s 0.12 increased than a wonderfully average-leverage spot. Furthermore, the low-leverage reduction alternatives do exist usually tend to go to the revolving door of replacement-level arms on the backside of every group’s bullpen depth chart, fairly than a longtime pitcher whose full-time job is that of a low-leverage reliever. Think about that the median gmLI for lively, certified relievers this season is 1.21. By design, most relievers who stick round lengthy sufficient so that you can know their names are going to be pitching in higher-leverage spots. But, that doesn’t imply there aren’t any full-time low-leverage relievers. If something, it simply means these guys are extra uncommon – and due to this fact fairly attention-grabbing.

With all that in thoughts, I got down to discover a low-leverage arm value writing about. The certified reliever (0.3 IP per group recreation) with the bottom gmLI this season is Thyago Vieira, with a 0.29 gmLI. That will be the bottom gmLI in a season for a certified reliever since rookie Johan Santana’s record-setting 0.27 gmLI in 2000. But, with all due respect to Vieira, he’s hardly probably the most enjoyable a part of that enjoyable reality. (Though, if Vieira goes on to win two Cy Younger awards and a Triple Crown I’ll gladly eat my phrases.) The 31-year-old Vieira completely suits the mildew of the replacement-level/revolving-door reliever I described above. He has performed for the Brewers, Orioles, and Diamondbacks this season, and he’s presently on the restricted checklist at Triple-A within the D-backs group. It appears extremely unlikely he’ll get again to majors and pitch the mandatory 10.2 innings he would want to stay certified at season’s finish. And, sadly, his 0.29 gmLI isn’t almost as noteworthy with out the “certified” qualifier. If I decrease the brink to 30 innings pitched, 25 different relievers have had a lower-leverage season on report (since 1974).

Funnily sufficient, nevertheless, it was once I appeared simply past the certified names that I struck gold iron (assist me out right here metallic lovers, is that the suitable metaphor?) in my seek for low-leverage relievers. Tanner Rainey of the Nationals is within the midst of what could possibly be the lowest-leverage reduction season of all time:

You gained’t see Rainey on our reliever leaderboards until you play with the “Min Taking part in Time (IP)” toggle, however he’s just one inning away from qualification. Presuming he continues to pitch precisely one inning per outing, as he has in 33 of his 34 appearances, he’ll have to make 14 extra journeys to the mound over Washington’s 43 remaining video games. That’s greater than doable. And if he have been certified proper now, his 0.09 gmLI would simply rank because the lowest for a certified reliever on report:

To maintain this up, Rainey might want to proceed pitching in low-leverage spots, which is much from a assure. The Nationals have extra high-leverage innings to go round now that Hunter Harvey and Dylan Floro are carrying new uniforms, and supervisor Dave Martinez steered on the deadline that Rainey may see a few of these alternatives. That hasn’t actually occurred but – Rainey hasn’t pitched in a lot as a medium-leverage spot this 12 months – however he has made two of his 4 highest-leverage appearances within the two weeks for the reason that commerce deadline, together with his highest-leverage entrance of the season approaching Saturday (gmLI 0.61). It was the second time all 12 months that he entered a two-run recreation.

But, even when Rainey makes one other 14 appearances and each single certainly one of them begins in a equally leveraged spot, he would end the season with a mean gmLI of roughly 0.25. Take that quantity with a grain of salt, since I made some huge assumptions to get there, and since leverage index stats can be adjusted on the finish of the season to account for the 2024 run surroundings. Nonetheless, my level stands that we could possibly be watching the least consequential reduction season in recorded historical past. And to assume, the fools in Large Baseball Media are too busy taking note of Shohei Ohtani’s quest for a 40-40 season to even discover.

One motive I’m so fascinated by Rainey’s season is that a mean leverage index this low isn’t one thing that occurs by chance. Rainey is the exception to the rule that low-leverage relievers don’t actually exist. He has been within the Nationals bullpen all 12 months, and his function has been fairly darn constant. The precise-hander has but to enter a tied contest or a one-run recreation. In the meantime, in 27 of his 34 appearances, he has taken the ball with the Nationals trailing by not less than three runs. He has entered with a deficit of not less than six runs on 5 separate events, and Washington’s common deficit when he enters a shedding recreation is 4.9 runs. To be honest, the Nationals’ -60 run differential suggests their relievers are most likely getting into with a deficit most of the time; even so, Rainey is clearly reserved for the worst of it. The group is 7-27 (.206) in his appearances and 47-38 (.553) in the remainder of its video games. Washington’s run differential upon his entrances is a dismal -100. On a small handful of events, Martinez has gifted Rainey the chance to pitch with a lead. The catch, nevertheless, is that Rainey solely appears to be allowed to enter late in video games if the Nationals have already scored not less than 11 runs and maintain not less than a six-run lead:

• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 11-1
• Rainey enters within the eighth with the Nationals up 11-5
• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 14-6
• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 14-3
• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 11-5

What’s extra, Rainey normally comes on to report the ultimate three outs of a recreation that each one however formally has been determined. He has been his group’s remaining pitcher in 26 of the 34 video games he has appeared on this 12 months, which places him twenty fourth amongst all relievers in video games completed. Each pitcher ranked forward of him is undeniably a high-leverage arm; all of them have had not less than 14 save alternatives, and so they all boast a gmLI effectively above common. Rainey, however, hasn’t pitched in a consequential spot all 12 months. Not solely is he 0-for-0 in save probabilities, however he doesn’t have any wins, losses, or holds. And whereas he has had his fair proportion of fine and unhealthy outings, he’s the one reliever within the sport this 12 months (min. 30 IP) with no shutdowns or meltdowns – video games during which he elevated or decreased his group’s possibilities of successful by not less than 0.06 WPA. If he retains this up, he’ll be the primary reliever since Chris Beck of the 2018 White Sox and Mets to pitch not less than 30 innings in reduction with out both a shutdown or meltdown outing.

Rainey is just not a mop-up man; he normally pitches just one inning, and it’s nearly all the time towards the top of the sport. Neither is he a fungible arm on the backside of the depth chart; the Nationals have caught with him all season regardless of his persistently poor outcomes (5.66 ERA, -0.2 WAR). No, Rainey is what I’m going to name a “farther,” for the reason that higher opposites of the phrase “nearer” — “starter” and “opener” — have already been taken. It’s a time period that solely works in writing, however on the similar time, it’s an apt description of his job. Rainey pitches solely when his group is simply too far forward or too far behind – and it’s too late within the recreation – for his efficiency to essentially matter.

Rainey was as soon as a promising reliever. He turned heads in 2020 (2.66 ERA, 42.7% strikeout fee), and after a tough ’21 marketing campaign, he appeared sharp once more in ’22. He was the Nationals’ nearer over the primary half of that season (12 saves, 1.72 gmLI), earlier than Tommy John surgical procedure knocked him out for second half and nearly all of ’23. Greater than two years faraway from his surgical procedure, Rainey not seems to be like the identical pitcher. His four-seam fastball velocity is down by about three miles per hour, and his slider not strikes prefer it as soon as did. From 2020-22, the pitch modeling techniques beloved his fastball (133 Stuff+, 68 botStf) and his breaker (131 Stuff+, 55 botStf). This 12 months, neither pitch grades out almost as effectively.

Maybe the Nationals have shoehorned Rainey into the lowest-leverage function attainable as a result of they’re holding out hope his stuff will return to pre-TJ ranges. Or maybe they’re giving him late-game alternatives as a real signal of (misguided) respect towards the previous nearer. Both means, Washington clearly needs to maintain him on the key league roster fairly than threat shedding him to a different group. If he has caught round this lengthy, he’s most likely secure for the remainder of the 12 months. And if Rainey is secure for the remainder of the 12 months, he’s received a fairly good likelihood to pitch the least significant full season any of us have ever seen.