Final offseason, the Diamondbacks had been in quest of a marquee starter to pair with Zac Gallen atop their rotation. The market was skinny on the high – Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani had been in all probability by no means accessible to them, so their greatest choices had been Sonny Grey, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shota Imanaga, and Jordan Montgomery. They signed two of these guys, and neither delivered the rotation-stabilizing efficiency they’d anticipated. However as an alternative of waving their palms within the air and raving on the injustice of variance, the Diamondbacks received proper again on the horse:
BREAKING: Corbin Burnes to Diamondbacks, $210M, 6 years. decide out after 2 years
— Jon Heyman (@jonheyman.bsky.social) 2024-12-28T06:32:12.313Z
Corbin Burnes was the most effective free agent pitcher accessible. In every of the final 5 seasons, he’s been one of many high pitchers within the recreation, racking up a 2.88 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 816 innings pitched. He’s second in WAR (21.7) over that time-frame, second in RA9-WAR (23.2), second in strikeouts (946), and third in innings pitched. In different phrases, he’s been a capital-A Ace, a set-it-and-forget-it selection on the high of the beginning rotation. He’ll obtain $35 million a yr for six seasons, with an opt-out after the second yr of the deal, which additionally features a $10 million signing bonus.
With Gallen additionally on their dance card, the Diamondbacks have top-of-the-line one-two combos within the majors. That doesn’t even embrace Merrill Kelly, a borderline All-Star when wholesome, or Brandon Pfaadt, who appeared like he was lastly breaking out earlier than a tough closing two months of the season. Add in Montgomery and Rodriguez, and Arizona goes six deep with believable playoff starters. That’s the way you injury-proof a rotation – sheer depth.
I’m curious to see how Burnes’ profession arc will play out. He burst onto the scene in 2020 with a reworked fastball and wipeout slider that powered him to gaudy strikeout totals. He’s continued to transform that slicing fastball seemingly yearly, altering its form and utilizing it to rack up weak contact as an alternative of to arrange strikeouts. That nasty slider that served him so properly is now a backup plan; moderately, he leans on an enormous, two-plane curveball that he’ll throw in any depend to any hitter.
The results of this reinvention? Burnes has reworked right into a command-and-grounders pitcher as an alternative of a short-stint strikeout artist. His 2021 Cy Younger marketing campaign lined solely 167 innings; he missed a couple of turns that yr due to sickness, but in addition not often labored late into the sport. He’s eclipsed 190 innings in each season since then, whereas putting out fewer batters every year.
It’s honest to say that Burnes is now not the electrical man he was in 2021. It’s additionally honest to say that he’s extremely efficient in his present type. He’s averaged roughly 4.0 WAR and a 3.00 ERA over roughly 200 innings in every of the final three years. Possibly that’s not the manufacturing of a top-five starter general, however he’s nonetheless clearly top-of-the-line pitchers in baseball. He turned 30 in October and doesn’t have an enormous damage historical past or debilitating innings load. It’s cheap to count on Burnes to hold on in an analogous type for the foreseeable future.
After all, that’s only one approach issues can go. Pitchers with declining strikeout charges typically flip into pumpkins. That’s why Burnes received Stephen Strasburg cash as an alternative of a Gerrit Cole deal. If he retains up his latest type for the subsequent half-decade, he’ll be a significant cut price for the Diamondbacks, although the opt-out limits simply how nice it may be from the staff’s aspect. I’d moderately have Burnes on this contract than Snell or Max Fried on those they signed, although all three contracts are fairly comparable general. ZiPS thinks all three offers had been overpays relative to mannequin worth; it could give Burnes six years and $182 million for the next projection:
ZiPS Projection – Corbin Burnes
| Yr | W | L | ERA | FIP | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14 | 7 | 2.97 | 3.29 | 30 | 30 | 181.7 | 151 | 60 | 16 | 51 | 179 | 139 | 4.2 |
| 2026 | 13 | 7 | 3.09 | 3.38 | 29 | 29 | 172.0 | 148 | 59 | 16 | 48 | 165 | 134 | 3.8 |
| 2027 | 12 | 6 | 3.18 | 3.47 | 27 | 27 | 164.0 | 144 | 58 | 15 | 46 | 153 | 130 | 3.5 |
| 2028 | 11 | 7 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 26 | 26 | 152.7 | 139 | 56 | 15 | 43 | 138 | 126 | 3.1 |
| 2029 | 11 | 6 | 3.41 | 3.75 | 24 | 24 | 147.7 | 139 | 56 | 15 | 42 | 129 | 121 | 2.8 |
| 2030 | 9 | 7 | 3.62 | 3.95 | 22 | 22 | 131.7 | 129 | 53 | 15 | 39 | 111 | 114 | 2.2 |
I may write for hours about Burnes. I have, actually, on greater than a couple of events. However probably the most notable a part of this deal to me is that Arizona is the one handing out the cash. The Diamondbacks made the World Collection in 2023 with a $124 million payroll. They pushed that quantity up final yr chasing a repeat efficiency, after which missed the playoffs by a single recreation. However as an alternative of standing pat or retreating, they’re pushing the funds up once more and including to the staff.
That’s a good move given the way in which the staff is constructed. The rotation is nice proper now, however Gallen and Kelly are free brokers after this yr. Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Eugenio Suárez will in all probability by no means be higher than they’re proper now. Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno are able to contribute to a championship staff. That is the Diamondbacks’ window, they usually’re appearing like they comprehend it.
Does it matter that they’re taking part in in the identical division because the world-conquering Dodgers? I imply, I’m positive they aren’t thrilled about that, nevertheless it’s merely a reality of life at this level. The NL West is a troublesome division, and that isn’t going to alter any time quickly. So as an alternative of pouting and punting, the Diamondbacks are doing no matter they’ll to maintain tempo with Los Angeles. Good for them!
To be clear, the Dodgers are nonetheless very a lot the favorites within the division. Nonetheless, the Diamondbacks at the moment are squarely the second-best membership within the NL West, and that’s a advantageous place to be, as a result of today they don’t must win the division. Heck, they don’t even should be the most effective of the non-division winners, as a result of three Wild Card groups make the playoffs. Their younger core is powerful sufficient to make a push now, and that requires outdoors additions. Arizona additionally understands that this window received’t final endlessly, and Burnes’ opt-outs provides to the staff’s urgency to strike whereas the iron is sizzling. Positive, if Burnes pitches properly, the Diamondbacks may lose him in a couple of years. However that’s OK — the subsequent two seasons had been all the time going to be their most vital ones. If the opt-outs had been essential to get the deal executed, then so be it.
Even higher, the Diamondbacks improved their roster in a approach that’s each useful through the common season — Burnes pitches a variety of innings — and scary in a brief playoff sequence. They now have Burnes, Gallen, and Kelly to anchor their postseason rotation, and if Montgomery returns to his 2023 type or Pfaadt takes one other step ahead, certainly one of them may leap Kelly on the depth chart and provides Arizona an excellent higher trio. Both approach, the Diamondbacks are positioned to carry out properly in a best-of-three Wild Card sequence, which might be the place they’ll find yourself in the event that they make the playoffs, contemplating, properly, the Dodgers.
The hits simply preserve coming. The Giants had been reportedly in on Burnes too, they usually’re each a divisional foe and a competitor for a Wild Card berth. They’ve loads of cash to spend and severe pitching wants, however now there isn’t anybody they’ll flip to for the same affect on their rotation. Jack Flaherty? Nick Pivetta? Burnes was the one marquee title left, so the Diamondbacks managed the uncommon double of enhancing their roster whereas additionally meaningfully limiting their competitors’s choices with a single signing.
Possibly it seems like I’m too optimistic about this deal. There are, actually, loads of methods it may go incorrect. Pitching contracts are all the time dangerous, as a result of pitching is dangerous. Elbows are finicky physique components, shoulders aren’t significantly better, and typically a mile an hour of velocity is the distinction between dominating and getting shelled.
However even taking all of those under consideration, may you discover a higher, extra dependable pitcher than Burnes? He’s constant, and he delivers quantity. He doesn’t do it with any pitches that make you marvel how his ligaments stay hooked up, and he’s younger sufficient that even when he had been to overlook a season with damage, he may nonetheless come again robust. Positive, I’d moderately have Tarik Skubal or George Kirby going ahead, however these guys weren’t accessible. Burnes was, and he’s not a lot worse than them.
No free agent deal is ideal. There are all the time dangers that include spending a lot cash on a single participant. It’s pricey, nevertheless it’s additionally mandatory. So for those who’re going to play the free agent market, do it like Arizona simply did. Signal an elite participant at his peak at exactly the second when your staff wants an elite participant at his peak. If you happen to can, signal him to a deal that might preserve him round for years to return, however greater than something, be sure to have him whereas your aggressive window is open — when your staff is ready as much as make the most of his contributions. Fairly merely, this is likely one of the most closely fits of staff and participant thus far this winter.
