As we head into the ultimate week of the common season, 15 groups nonetheless present indicators of life in the case of claiming a playoff berth. On the one hand, that sounds spectacular — half the majors nonetheless contending — and it’s on par with final 12 months and higher than 2022. Nonetheless, it nonetheless boils down to only three groups chucking up the sponge, and simply one of many six division leads having a higher than 1% probability of adjusting palms. As famous beforehand, for the reason that adoption of the 2022 Collective Bargaining Settlement and its four-round playoff system, the choices for scheduling chaos have been changed by the joy of math. On-field tiebreakers are a factor of the previous, with head-to-head information often all which might be required to kind issues out.
On Friday I checked in on the race to safe first-round byes, which go to the groups with the highest two information in every league, so right this moment I’ll shift focus to what’s left of the Wild Card races. Fortunately, there’s nonetheless sufficient at stake for each leagues to providing some quantity of intrigue.
American League
Saturday’s contest between the Tigers and Orioles definitely performed its half in preserving the AL Wild Card race thrilling. The Tigers, who got here in proudly owning the AL’s greatest report for the reason that begin of July (42-28), led the slumping Orioles (33-37 inside that very same span) 4-2 heading into the underside of the ninth. Nearer Jason Foley allowed the primary 4 Orioles to achieve base through a pair of singles, a stroll, and a two-run double by Gunnar Henderson. With the profitable run 90 toes away, supervisor A.J. Hinch introduced in reliever Beau Brieske, who wriggled out of the jam and despatched the sport into the tenth, the place Riley Greene drove within the Manfred man and got here round to attain as nicely. Brieske shut down the Orioles within the backside of the body as nicely to protect the win.
With one other loss to the Tigers on Sunday — this one that includes Parker Meadows’ fifth-inning theft of a possible Colton Cowser dwelling run — the Orioles (86-70) at the moment are six video games behind the Yankees (92-64) within the AL East race, although they nonetheless personal a four-game lead for the highest Wild Card spot. They’re not utterly out of the division race but, as they’ll face the Yankees for 3 video games within the Bronx beginning Tuesday, however they want a sweep, since New York’s magic quantity is down to 1. Taking all three from the Yankees would give the Orioles the tiebreaker between the 2 groups on the idea of a 7-6 season-series benefit. Even so, for the tiebreaker to matter, the Orioles would wish to shut the season in Minnesota by sweeping the Twins (81-75) and the Yankees to lose all three of their video games over the weekend to the Pirates (73-83). The Orioles are 99.9% sure to make the playoffs in response to our odds, however have only a 0.1% probability of profitable the division and thus a 99.8% probability of securing a Wild Card berth. The excellent news for the O’s is that, because the possible top-seeded Wild Card crew, they’d have home-field benefit within the best-of-three opening spherical.
Past Baltimore, the opposite two spots are actually up for grabs, with three AL Central groups proper in the course of it, all with only one path to the postseason after the Guardians (90-66) clinched the AL Central on Saturday. Whereas the Royals (82-74) have secured their first profitable season since 2015, they’ve additionally managed to lose seven straight video games to the Pirates, Tigers, and Giants (oh my!) — and that’s their second seven-game dropping streak since late August. (How’s this for timing?) Worse, they’ve scored a complete of simply 4 runs over their previous 5 video games, with the final one coming within the ninth inning of Friday night time’s 2-1 loss to the Giants. Now that’s a misplaced weekend!
The Royals at the moment are tied with the Tigers (82-74) for the second Wild Card spot, and so they personal the tiebreaker by dint of their 7-6 season-series benefit. Each groups are one sport forward of Minnesota (81-75), however the Twins personal that specific tiebreaker over the Royals based mostly on their 7-6 benefit. The Twins additionally personal the tiebreaker over the Tigers by… you guessed it, a 7-6 benefit.
Kansas Metropolis closes out the common season on the street, with three video games in opposition to the Nationals (69-87) and three in opposition to the banged-up Braves (85-71). Our playoff odds give the Royals a 68.7% probability of creating it via.
The Tigers have roared again into the race regardless of having to duct tape a rotation collectively out of a possible Cy Younger winner (Tarik Skubal), a wobbly former no. 1 choose (Casey Mize), a replacement-level rookie (Keider Montero), and a bunch of openers. Saturday’s win boosted Detroit’s playoff odds from 26.9% to 38.2%, after which Sunday’s win coupled with the fall-on-your-face actions by the Royals and Twins additional boosted them to 70.6%, the very best of the three Central contenders. The Tigers have the bottom strength-of-schedule score of any remaining contender, with a weighted opponents’ profitable share of .447, as they end out their schedule at dwelling in opposition to the Rays (78-78) and the traditionally futile White Sox (36-120).
The Twins received Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa again from prolonged absences final weekend, however they’ve misplaced seven out of 10 for the reason that former’s return to the lineup on Friday, September 13, and are simply 11-22 since August 18. Saturday’s rainout in Boston briefly afforded them some reduction after three straight extra-innings video games — together with two walk-off losses the Guardians — and so they do have one other time off following Sunday’s doubleheader, however they’ll be licking their wounds after dropping each video games, 8-1 and 9-3. Their odds of a Wild Card berth are right down to 53.5%; the excellent news is that they’re at dwelling the remainder of the best way in opposition to the Marlins (57-98, however 12-21 since that very same August 18 date) and the Orioles.
Lastly, regardless of blowing a 10-game division lead in report time earlier this summer season, the Mariners (80-76) aren’t fairly out of the image but as a consequence of their 16-12 report below new supervisor Dan Wilson. At 5.6%, their odds are fairly slim, and that’s not even counting their 1% probability of snatching the AL West again from the Astros (85-71), whom they face for 3 video games in Houston beginning on Monday. The Mariners, who’re 5 video games again within the division with six to play, maintain the tiebreaker with the Astros courtesy of their 6-4 season-series benefit. Did I say this was going to be straightforward? I didn’t. If the Mariners do make headway there, they’ll additionally need to handle enterprise in opposition to the A’s (67-89) — who’ve the higher second-half report of the 2 groups (30-28 vs. 28-30) — in Seattle subsequent weekend.
In case you’re questioning how this all shakes out, seeding-wise: If the playoffs have been to start right this moment, the Orioles (4) would face the Royals (5) for the proper to play the Yankees (1), whereas the Astros (3) would face the Tigers (6) for the possibility to play the Guardians (2).
Nationwide League
Because of a four-game profitable streak that included this weekend’s sweep of the White Sox, in addition to a significant league-best 40-17 report for the reason that All-Star break, the Padres (90-66) have a magic variety of one with a view to clinch a playoff berth. They personal a three-game lead over the Mets and Diamondbacks (each 87-69) within the Wild Card race, and so they’re solely three video games behind the Dodgers (93-63) within the NL West standings. The Padres have already clinched the tiebreaker over the Dodgers — they lead the season sequence 7-3 up to now — and so they have a golden alternative to shut the hole within the division, with three video games in Los Angeles beginning on Tuesday. From there, they journey to Arizona to complete in opposition to the Diamondbacks (87-69), with whom they’ve break up 10 video games up to now this season — which is to say that their tiebreaker continues to be up for grabs. San Diego’s odds of profitable the NL West are nonetheless fairly lengthy at 8.7%, however that is the closest factor to a division race remaining, and a first-round bye is nearly definitely at stake. Even when the Padres fall in need of profitable the West, they’ll nearly undoubtedly declare a Wild Card spot.
As for the Dodgers, regardless of having left the door ajar, they do personal the NL’s greatest report getting into this week. After internet hosting the Padres, they journey to Coors Discipline to face the Rockies (60-96). The Dodgers are clearly the a lot better crew, however that altitude can mess up even the strongest of pitching staffs, to say nothing of 1 that’s being held collectively by the already-chewed gum from a pack of 1981 Topps playing cards.
The Mets proceed to sizzle in September, going 15-5 whereas scoring 5.05 runs per sport and permitting 2.90 per sport, which is to say that they’re not messing round. They’re accomplished chewing that gum, however we’re about to see whether or not they may kick ass whereas touring to face the Braves (85-71) and Brewers (89-71), the latter of whom sewed up the NL Central final Wednesday. Tiebreaker-wise, the Mets have the higher hand in opposition to the Diamondbacks (4-3) and Padres (5-2) however not the Dodgers (2-4). They’ve break up 10 video games with the Braves so far, in order that tiebreaker is on the road.
The Mets’ playoff odds (76.3%) are decrease than these of the Diamondbacks (82.7%), although the D-backs did handle to blow an 8-0 lead over the Brewers on Sunday in Milwaukee, stopping them from finishing a four-game sweep. Arizona hosts the Giants (77-79) for 3 video games starting Monday, adopted by three at dwelling in opposition to the Padres to wrap up the season. The Diamondbacks are on the unsuitable finish of each tiebreaker right here save for the one to be determined in opposition to the Padres, as they misplaced their season sequence to the Dodgers (6-7), Mets (3-4), and Braves (2-5).
Even whereas profitable 4 of their previous 5 video games, the Braves are simply 32-29 for the reason that All-Star break, worse than another contending NL crew apart from the Phillies (30-30). Trailing each the Diamondbacks and Mets by two video games, Atlanta is in peril of lacking the playoffs for the primary time since 2017. The Braves are limping to the end line, having not solely misplaced Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider for the season, but additionally Austin Riley to a fractured hamate (he’ll have a CT scan on Monday to see if he can get his forged eliminated, however he possible wouldn’t play till the Wild Card sequence) and Reynaldo López to a different bout of shoulder irritation. They did get Ozzie Albies again from a damaged wrist on Friday, and he hit his first homer since July 6 in Sunday’s win over the Marlins.
The Braves are at dwelling the remainder of the best way, in opposition to the Mets and Royals, two groups that even have lots to play for the remainder of the best way. Atlanta’s odds are right down to 40.6%, and worse, they’ll get just one extra common season begin out of Chris Sale. The place he may have taken two begins every with 4 days of relaxation on Tuesday and Sunday, as a substitute he’ll go on Wednesday in opposition to the Mets, since he’s fairly gassed. The 35-year-old lefty — the possible NL Cy Younger winner — has already thrown extra innings this 12 months (177 2/3) than he has in any season since 2017, and his common four-seam fastball velocity isn’t solely down 1.7 mph from August (95.4) to September (93.7), it was right down to 92.7 mph in his most up-to-date begin on Thursday.
Seeding-wise, if the playoffs began right this moment, the Padres (4) would face the Mets (5) in a rematch of San Diego’s 2022 Wild Card upset, with the winner advancing to play the Dodgers (1). In the meantime, the Brewers (3) would face the Diamondbacks (6) with the winner taking over the Phillies (2). It’s not Workforce Entropy, however issues may nonetheless get very shaken up over the subsequent seven days.
