Each story written in regards to the Mets this offseason begins with Juan Soto, however just about all of them instantly introduce a caveat: “They’ll additionally must signal extra pitching.” And it’s true! The Mets, as constituted after signing Soto, had a fearsome high of the lineup and a thriller field of a pitching workers. However in addition they had cash, which may be exchanged for items and companies, and now they’ve given that cash to Sean Manaea, who signed a three-year, $75 million deal to return to Queens final week.
Manaea was comfortably the workforce’s finest starter in 2024. He signed a one-year prove-it deal that valued him someplace between a swingman and a fourth starter, and he delivered the products, to the tune of a 3.47 ERA over 181 innings of labor. He acquired even higher within the second half, adopting a brand new cross-fire supply and altering the form of his fastball for the higher. A down postseason hardly put a damper on his yr; the 2024 model of Manaea fulfilled the promise he’d proven since breaking into the majors in 2016.
The query, then, is whether or not he can do it once more. There’s loads of purpose to imagine he can. Manaea’s fastball performs a lot better from a low slot, and he misses sufficient bats to run an above-average strikeout price even and not using a true wipeout pitch. He additionally acquired his stroll price underneath management within the second half of the yr, which has lengthy been a sticking level in his sport. It’s not a lot that Manaea’s wild, however at his finest, he was working stroll charges round 5%, and that quantity had ballooned into the 8-9% area lately. After altering his supply in late July, he walked solely 6.2% of opposing batters. He’s by no means going to strike out a gaudy variety of guys, but when he isn’t issuing free passes, his stuff retains hitters off stability and ends in a whole lot of straightforward innings even with out strikeouts.
This would possibly really feel like slicing samples into vanishingly small segments to inform a narrative. I’m sympathetic to that view, actually. It’s rather a lot simpler to say some change was revolutionary after you’ve seen just a few video games of outcomes, and pitchers make small changes on a regular basis. However this one actually does really feel significant; even when it didn’t fully change Manaea’s underlying statistics (he posted the same FIP, for instance). The brand new arm angle fits his pitches higher, he struck out extra batters and walked fewer of them, and the brand new cutter/sweeper mixture he launched in 2024 appeared to work higher from that crossfire place.
Does that imply Manaea is now an ace? No. He’s an above-average pitcher, although, and that’s been a scorching commodity this winter. Projection techniques have Manaea down for an ERA between 3.75 and 4.00 in 2025, good third starter territory. You may alter that estimate down barely if you wish to put some inventory in his tweaks — that will get him proper into stable second starter standing, principally a repeat of 2024. That matches completely with the Mets, who in all probability don’t wish to add extra long-term commitments this winter however who nonetheless must bulk up their beginning rotation.
Contracts like this are the lifeblood of huge funds groups. You would possibly assume it’s the celebs, however these are largely luck of the draw; certain, you sometimes get Juan Soto in free company, however Bobby Witt Jr. in Kansas Metropolis, Julio Rodríguez in Seattle, and Tarik Skubal in Detroit are just some examples of how stars are extra typically developed than signed. You’re feeling the funds additional down the roster, in including Clay Holmes to compete for a rotation spot and bringing Manaea again for greater than he was anticipated to make. You’re feeling it in signing Frankie Montas to a pillow contract the identical approach Manaea signed one final yr.
Is there slightly little bit of paying for final yr’s efficiency on this deal? Most positively. However that’s what the cash is for. This Mets workforce wanted a dependable pitcher who can credibly make playoff begins. Manaea delivered precisely that final yr, he seems to be like an affordable guess to take action once more this yr, and he’s already conversant in the workforce. It’s the form of signing that any GM may get on board with – convey again the man we already prefer to pair with the famous person who was our key offseason goal.
For some squads, this might be an both/or factor. The Diamondbacks signing Corbin Burnes certain looks like a prelude to creating some payroll-reducing trades and letting Zac Gallen depart subsequent winter. However the Mets don’t have to decide on in the identical approach. That’s a luxurious that loads of groups want they’d. Nobody needs to construct a workforce just like the Brewers or Rays. It’s laborious having to win practically each transaction to make a small funds stretch. This signing wouldn’t actually make sense for groups dwelling by these guidelines, nevertheless it makes good sense for the Mets, who’ve some stars and loads of cash and wish to compete now.
For the report, I could be underselling Manaea by making this text all about acceptable splurges in pursuit of successful. Possibly 2024 was Manaea’s profession yr, however 2025 may very well be, too. Typically the little mechanical modifications that gamers make all through the season make for cool tales after which disappear the next yr; typically they’re career-altering. Possibly altering his arm angle will change his offseason prep in some significant approach. Possibly a winter of throwing low-slot four-seamers will educate him a brand new method. Performing like we all know what’s going to occur is without doubt one of the largest overreaches of information, and I don’t simply imply in baseball. The long run continues to be unknown, even when we will guess at its central tendency with higher precision lately.
So let’s body it barely otherwise to shut this out. I don’t know what Manaea will seem like in 2025, and the Mets don’t both. No analyst does for certain. However for those who contemplate the vary of doable outcomes, the overwhelming majority of them will assist the workforce compete for the NL East title. On the finish of the day, that’s what the sport is absolutely about, and for that purpose, I like this signing. It’s an amazing match of workforce and participant. You may’t ask for way more than that.
