RosterResource Chat – 12/13/24

Jason Martinez: Hey all people. Jon and I are again from Winter Conferences. It wasn’t mandatory for us to be in Dallas to replace the entire roster strikes that occurred, however we had been in a position to meet up with our FanGraphs colleagues and had our annual RosterResource assembly. Hopefully, we’ll have some extra cool RR options added within the close to future. Ask us some questions.

Some kinda Mook: Hendricks is prone to be the first nearer in Boston if wholesome, proper?

Jon Becker: My guess is that with none additional additions they’ll “platoon” Hendriks and Chapman primarily based on matchups, and so they’ll in all probability watch out with Hendriks about back-to-back video games within the early going anyway. Justin Slaten’s another choice too.

Jason Martinez: Yep. I’d guess he’d have an opportunity to be the “major” nearer someday in Might if he seems to be just like the outdated Liam Hendriks and in a position to pitch back-to-back days.

Justin: On Cortes for Williams, I really feel like a possible 2.5-3 win pitcher is an excessive amount of to surrender for a reliever. Plus the Yankees additionally gave the Brewers cash and a prospect. Am I off-base right here? Thanks!

Jason Martinez: Keep in mind that Cortes had a flexor pressure to finish the season and was solely added to the playoff roster after they had been snug that he might pitch in aid. It’s doable that he received’t pitch in any respect in 2025, though they in all probability received’t know a lot till he ramps up in spring. My guess is that the Brewers actually like Durbin and in addition made certain to get some $ again due to Cortes’ harm danger.

Jon Becker: I additionally assume the context issues right here, in that Cortes was in all probability seventh on the SP depth chart for the Yankees so he was expendable for them.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Ideas on which Rule 5 guys landed into conditions the place they may stick?

Jon Becker: Shane Smith and Evan Reifert come to thoughts, since each the White Sox and Nationals have wide-open bullpens proper now. Was stunned Reifert wasn’t picked just a little earlier, truly.

Cubbles: Any traction on Kyle Tucker getting traded? If not the Cubs, what different groups would possibly make a transfer? NYY appears out after dealing Nestor.

Jason Martinez: Sounds prefer it’s getting shut. If it occurs in the course of the chat, I’ll be stepping away for 5-10 minutes to replace issues. Cubs seem like the primary focus proper now with Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith a part of the deal.

MilledgeReport: Mets doubtless so as to add one other SP? Any ideas on who? Rotation wanting just a little gentle in the mean time.

Jon Becker: I feel they are going to, yeah, particularly since a six-man is believable (if not going) to maintain Senga and Holmes wholesome and restrict their innings a bit. Stearns isn’t the sort to spend large on starters regardless of all of Steve Cohen’s cash, so I feel it could be somebody like Pivetta or Buehler.

Baltimoron: Wtf is Elias doing

Jason Martinez: Apparently, right-handed energy was a precedence: transfer within the fences and signal two right-handed batters (Tyler O’Neill, Gary Sanchez) with plus-plus energy. Lineup is superb. Bullpen needs to be high-quality. Prime precedence needs to be including a frontline starter, though they don’t appear prone to get Burnes again. Possibly they add Manaea or Flaherty. Possibly Walker Buehler.

Jon Becker: Doesn’t sound like they had been all that eager about buying and selling for Crochet both; Eflin being the Opening Day starter strikes me as likelier than not.

Nickles: As soon as signed, does Roki Sasaki turn into essentially the most useful asset by way of roster building in baseball given how beneath market his deal might be?

Jon Becker: I don’t assume the most respected, since he’s not going to be any cheaper than the entire different pre-arbitration gamers doing very well proper now. Paul Skenes is immensely underpaid, for instance.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Javier Baez is beneath contract by way of 2027. With the Tigers now a contender, what’s absolutely the earliest you may see them dropping him and consuming the remainder of the deal? Really feel like I by no means see that occur earlier than the final 12 months of a contract, however…

Jason Martinez: I feel 2026 on the earliest. Not in 2025 since Trey Sweeney, regardless of him holding his personal final season, continues to be unproven over a full season. Baez offers them insurance coverage at beginning SS and, in any case, a platoon participant who’s above-average at SS/3B/SS. And he’s a bounce-back candidate.

Jon Becker: I additionally don’t assume Báez is magically going to be actually good once more nevertheless it’s value noting that the again harm actually appeared to have an effect on him.

Ham Fighter: Am I too optimistic in believing that Caleb Durbin might be competitors with Dunn/Monasterio for backup IF and the Brewers will nonetheless purchase a beginning calibre IF earlier than the offseason is over?

Jon Becker: I feel getting $4.5M or so (per Nightengale) again within the commerce is useful at releasing up just a little bit of money to signal somebody, although it’s not like you may get anybody nice for simply $4.5M. Ha-Seong Kim makes loads of sense for them although he received’t be prepared for Opening Day.

Ryan: Which crew that hasn’t actually made any strikes but surprises you essentially the most?

Jason Martinez: I’ll go together with the Nationals. Good younger core of place gamers and beginning pitchers and able to take the following huge step. If that’s the plan, it hasn’t occurred but and probably not a lot buzz surrounding them able to do one thing huge.

Jon Becker: They had been my choose to have the most important offseason of the non-playoff groups, and that actually received’t be true with the Giants having signed Adames.

J: If the Cubs do commerce for Tucker, presumably Bellinger will get dealt shortly after. However even then, how do they cope with the outfield logjam? Suzuki is outwardly not eager on DHing and so they have Alcantara and Caissie ready within the wings.

Jon Becker: Suzuki’s not eager on DHing however he would simply must, frankly (and so they might give Tucker and Happ some days there). I don’t assume they’re going to commerce another person to make room for Alcantara or Caissie, in the event that they’re prepared it’ll work itself out.

Visitor: Do you imagine 26 begins is the typical end result for deGrom begins as listed within the Depth Charts after this a few years of being damage?

Jason Martinez: I’ve loads of readers and colleagues who disagree with my philosophy on easy methods to mission enjoying time with the system we have now in place. And, with reference to deGrom, it’s this: He’s absolutely wholesome. He pitched on the finish of final season. He makes $40MM. And I’ve him projected to overlook round 6 weeks. Lower than me to foretell that he’ll have an harm that may preserve him out longer than that. The reader could make that judgement.

TW: Do you assume the Rangers will/ought to transfer Lowe now that they’ve Burger?

Jon Becker: Wouldn’t shock me in the event that they did, however I don’t assume they need to only for the sake of it. Depth is vital, particularly with large query marks across the well being of Carter and Jung, and García underperforming this 12 months.

Keith: Thanks guys. How doubtless the Brewers transfer Turang to SS if Durbin clicks in spring coaching?

Jason Martinez: I heard an interview with both Matt Arnold or Pat Murphy (sorry, don’t bear in mind which one) and he confused that each Ortiz or Turang can be actually good at SS. They’d moderately not transfer Turang off of 2B since he simply proved that he’s among the finest within the sport there, however stated they had been open to it relying on how issues shake out. Is Durbin the man that’s gonna shake issues up? Unsure he’s that man, however it could be Durbin at 2B, Ortiz at 3B, and Turang at SS if that occurred to be the case. Unsure the plan is to enter Spring Coaching with out another confirmed possibility.

By the best way, that was my preliminary projection however I modified my thoughts and went with a safer one for now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/brewers

Joe: Is NYY actually the one potential taker for Bellinger?

Jon Becker: Astros and Mariners are also reportedly eager about him, however the newest indicators level to the Yankees, particularly if/when Tucker to Chicago will get performed.

victoria: paredes + Smith + Wesneski is the ultimate bundle

Jason Martinez: “Anticipated to be” are the phrases in Jon Heyman’s final tweet. These will not be included within the magic phrases I would like earlier than I make the replace. However, yeah, looks like it’s about to go down.

Banjo, for breakfast?: At this (admittedly outrageously early) level of the low season, who’s your choose for the veteran participant that finally ends up on an NRI deal who finally ends up offering essentially the most 2025 WAR for his or her crew?

Jon Becker: I in all probability have to choose somebody who hasn’t even signed but, because it’s going to be the kind of participant who’s holding out for an MLB deal however can’t discover one. Possibly Nicky Lopez has a randomly good BABIP- and fielding-fueled two-win season?

fuz: What’s the info behind slotting Angel Martinez at 2B for the Guardians?  Appears affordable however questioning what you might need heard.

Jason Martinez: Initially, I used to be able to put Juan Brito in that spot earlier than I learn just a few scouting stories on him. Appears restricted defensively and nonetheless some holes in his sport that made me surprise if that’s who they had been clearing a spot for. They actually had been attempting to get Martinez within the lineup final season and batting him close to the highest of the order for a bit. I don’t assume he’s a certain factor, however I’d give him the sting within the present group of contenders.

Jason Martinez: Stepping away for about 10 minutes because the Tucker-to-Cubs deal is completed. Jon will take over till I return.

visitor: Hello Jason and Jon, (unintentionally hit enter lol). With the A”s lastly!!! meting out an enormous contract at solely $67 million to Severino, it reveals that they’re undoubtedly able to spending extra money.   2024 payroll pages, 10 of the 30 MLB groups are hovering round $110mil or beneath payroll, whereas the highest 10 groups are above $200mil with two surpassing $300mil for each Mets and Yankees. Of the underside 10 and off the highest of my head, Baltimore, Washington, Detroit have all proven desired to spend and compete up to now, and really properly might within the close to future. What does the MLB/Manfred must do to get groups like Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa, Pittsburgh, even Miami and Cincinnati to spend and compete extra? Are there any strings they’ll pull to incentivize spending? Punish complacency? Establishing a backside cap? Thanks on your smarter enter than me!

Jon Becker: There are already guidelines in place to be sure that groups who obtain income sharing funds are literally reallocating that cash into the crew — I imagine the present CBA says {that a} crew’s payroll must be 1.5x what they obtain in income sharing or else the MLBPA can file a grievance, although the punishment for that isn’t actually clear. Undoubtedly can be a fan of a wage ground however I don’t assume that might occur with out a exhausting cap, which I’m very a lot not a fan of .

Justin: Looks as if the Hader/McCullers/Pressley/Abreu contracts are inflicting the Astros to not be capable of preserve Bregman and Tucker. Is that this mismanagement or simply dangerous luck on a number of the outcomes.

Jon Becker: It’s each, I feel. The Hader and Pressly contracts have labored out high-quality, Abreu, Montero, and McCullers have clearly been disasters (the McCullers one by way of no fault of his personal). However there was just a little little bit of mismanagement, too; the Cristian Javier contract was fairly above-market for somebody along with his service time.

Edward: Matches for NYY to spherical out the lineup?

Jon Becker: The aforementioned Bellinger makes loads of sense, as would buying somebody like Brandon Lowe to play second or first and take goal on the quick porch. Don’t love Bregman as a slot in that park however it might properly occur anyway.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Of the younger RPs who ascended to nearer final season, who do you assume has one of the best probability to carry that job at the very least till opening day? (Pondering Faucher, J Martinez, P Hodge… could be forgetting somebody)

Jon Becker: Faucher might be likeliest on Opening Day because it’s not just like the Marlins are going so as to add anybody of be aware to compete with or take the job from him outright. Martinez needs to be in excessive leverage all 12 months however I might see them utilizing Puk in some conditions if the matchups are higher.

DET: Which two of Mize, Jobe, Maeda, Hurter, Montero, Manning, Gipson-Lengthy will log essentially the most begins for the Tigers subsequent 12 months?

Jon Becker: I’ll say Mize and Manning. Jobe will pitch lots however they’re in all probability going to restrict him to at the very least some extent, Maeda appears to be in an uphill climb for begins since he didn’t look that significantly better out of the bullpen.

Chris: I do know they needed to pivot after dropping Soto however i dont get the Yanks’ collection of strikes. Signal a 31 yo pitcher for 8 yrs to large cash, then flip round and commerce a sneakily good starter and your purported 2B for one 12 months of a more in-depth when relievers could be had wherever. And even speaking about Gil and Rice for a one 12 months rental in Tucker is nuts.

Jon Becker: Yeah, there’s undoubtedly loads of danger with Fried, although I don’t have an issue in any respect with the bundle they gave up for Williams. Cortes was buried on the depth chart and Durbin might be helpful however isn’t notably extremely regarded. And seeing what the Cubs gave up for Tucker, I don’t assume Gil + Rice would have gotten it performed anyway.

Tucker: Ideas on cubs bundle for Tucker?

Jon Becker: Steep worth to pay for certain, however Wesneski’s acquired one thing of a homer downside and so they would possibly’ve seen Paredes and Smith as redundant sufficient to maneuver with Matt Shaw ready within the wings.

Jon Becker: I’ve acquired to log out to replace the payroll pages with the Tucker commerce, Jason will take it from right here!

Jason Martinez: Listed here are my preliminary up to date roster projections after the Astros-Cubs commerce …

Cubs: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/cubs

Astros: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

Jason Martinez: I feel the Cubs will add a veteran 3B as a stop-gap for Matt Shaw. No matter caliber that stop-gap is will inform us how a lot they imagine in Shaw. Feels like they assume he’s going to assist in 2025. Unsure if it’s on Opening Day, though I wouldn’t rule it out.

Jason Martinez: Clearly, a Bellinger commerce could be very prone to occur and that might clear issues up of their OF.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Typically I play a sport the place, the second I see a transaction occur, I rush to RosterResource to see if I can catch it earlier than you’ve up to date the web page(s)… I’ve by no means received.

Jason Martinez: You in all probability received on this one. This units up each groups to make further strikes so not all the pieces fell proper into place with this projection. Took a bit longer.

Bregman: Astros – With Paredes added, Bregman has gotta be gone proper?

Jason Martinez: Except they’ve one other commerce arrange for Paredes, that appears to be the case. And Paredes does appear to be a terrific slot in that ballpark so my assumption is that they’re transferring on from Bregman and their focus needs to be on the OF, which (based on me) is at present projected as Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Taylor Trammell.

Visitor: Is slaten a aid solely possibility or are the sox contemplating stretching him out to be a starter

Jason Martinez: Haven’t seen something on Slaten, particularly, however I wouldn’t rule it out as a result of it doesn’t actually have an effect on his function within the bullpen. If something, it simply offers him extra worth as a multi-inning reliever if he’s stretched out to 3-4 innings and so they determine they don’t want him as a starter this season. They’re stretching out Michael Fulmer and (I’m assuming) Josh Winckowski and I feel they’ll additionally find yourself within the bullpen.

Justin: What are the possibilities the Mets beginning the 12 months with Baty and Vientos at 3b and 1b? There aren’t loads of choices in FA moreover Bregman, Alonso and Walker.

Jason Martinez: In the event that they don’t re-sign Alonso, I feel chances are high respectable that would be the case. Baty was a extremely good prospect earlier than the harm. Mets can in all probability afford to have one unproven man (with huge upside) on the backside of their lineup. I feel there’s additionally some commerce potentialities, although. The rest of the offseason needs to be enjoyable.

Tucker: Thanks.  When you had been an Astros fan, how would you are feeling concerning the return?

Jason Martinez: I’d be bummed out as a result of which means (in all probability) Bregman and Tucker are formally gone, Cam Smith higher find yourself being actually good within the close to future, and the remainder of our offseason higher be ok to make me really feel much less bummed out.

Ryan: Do you assume the Diamondbacks make any big-time strikes or will they largely be bargain-hunters this offseason? Fairly quiet to date

Jason Martinez: I feel they’re one of many quiet groups which are able to popping out of nowhere to make a giant transfer. They’ve performed that previously. Focus proper now might be on attempting to commerce Jordan Montgomery or one in every of their different starters. My guess is that they’ll add a giant bat at 1B or nook OF. It will be enjoyable in the event that they acquired Cody Bellinger.

Jason Martinez: That may do it for immediately’s chat. We’ll be again subsequent Friday. Thanks for becoming a member of us!