RosterResource Chat – 11/22/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the first-ever RosterResource Reside Chat at FanGraphs! At the least one in every of us (often each) might be doing this each Friday at the moment.

In case you’re accustomed to me or Jon, I believe you recognize that we get pleasure from speaking about something roster-related and can all the time attempt to give a considerate reply to any query. That’s not all the time excellent for a dwell chat the place you need to reply as many questions as attainable. However having each of us right here will permit us to nonetheless do this as a lot as attainable as we alternate answering questions.

And right here we go …

Jon Becker: Good day and welcome everybody! Let’s get going with our first query…

Kate: Braves appeared to choose Grant Holmes to a number of these different backend rotation choices all through the second half final yr.  You all are considering that modifications over the offseason?

Jon Becker: So I believe that is much less about Holmes in a vacuum and extra about Holmes in comparison with Anderson and Canning (the primary three rotation spots are locked in). They’re all out of choices, and Holmes is the one of many three with bullpen expertise, and he was nice in that function final yr.

Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility provides the Braves an opportunity to discover the market in the course of the offseason and in addition give their younger guys a glance within the spring. However looks as if he’s locked in as one in every of their 13 pitchers.

diadem: Is Johan Rojas’ .246 BA sufficient to maintain him enjoying? Platoon? vL or vR?

Jason Martinez: It was reported a couple of minutes in the past that Austin Hays might be non-tendered in order that clears issues up a bit for the second. However I don’t assume the Phillies need to go into 2025 relying on Rojas for greater than 300-350 PA. I believe they’re going all in on Soto and, in the event that they fall brief, would nonetheless pursue one other affect bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: What’s the rule now on assured cash for arbitration-eligible gamers who’re tendered contracts? If the workforce tenders a contract, is any cash assured, or can the workforce reduce the participant with out penalty earlier than arbitration? How about after arbitration — is the contract assured then, and if that’s the case, how a lot?

Jon Becker: Nice nuts and bolts query, proper up my alley! If a participant is tendered a contract in the present day, then the workforce has to comply with a contract with him for 2025, both by agreeing by the deadline (January 10) or going to an arbitration listening to. Beneath the brand new CBA, contracts agreed to with out a listening to are absolutely assured on the level of signing, however contracts determined through listening to aren’t absolutely assured. We noticed this final yr with J.D. Davis, who the Giants took to arbitration and have been in a position to launch after they signed Matt Chapman, owing him simply 30 days of termination pay as an alternative of the complete contract.

drhotdog: been debating this with different angels followers – when do you assume Christian Moore will get referred to as up?  when do you assume he ought to?

Jason Martinez: Based mostly on how rapidly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was hypothesis that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 earlier than he acquired harm. I nonetheless assume they plan on being aggressive, but it surely’s extra probably that his ETA is nearer to mid-2025 now. After all, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.

Justin: What do you guys make of Profar’s market? Is he a lock to return to SD or do you assume an org provides him an enormous contract?

Jon Becker: The contract predictions I’ve seen for him are nearly all within the vary of $45-$48 million for 3 years, and if that’s all it takes I believe there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity. That stated, if the Padres are proper there with everybody else (not a certain factor contemplating their payroll) I’d be stunned if he went elsewhere.

Invoice: Marte get 1st probability at 3b for reds? Or are they purchasing?

Jason Martinez: I’ve already been requested about my Opening Day projection a number of occasions … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … as a result of I’ve Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks extra to Marte not doing sufficient to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered in the present day. Perhaps Jeimer performs 3B however protection is shaky. Based mostly on that, you recognize what I believe. They’re in search of an improve and, even when they nonetheless consider in Marte, will make him earn the job by placing up large numbers in AAA.

Keaton Arneson: If I might solely draft one Cleveland minor leaguer SP for this season solely who wouldn’t it be? Nikhazy, Messick, Wilkinson, or Peterson?

Jon Becker: Until I’ve acquired important purpose to consider in any other case, I all the time facet with the high-level man on the 40-man, which might be Nikhazy. Definitely doesn’t harm he had a extremely robust season, too.

Jason Martinez: I say you must go together with the man nicknamed “Tugboat”.

Sox Fan: Crimson Sox bundle for Crochet and/or different SP commerce targets?

Jason Martinez: I believe they’ve pretty much as good of an opportunity as any workforce on the market. Seems like they’re going to go large in free company and don’t essentially have a transparent path for any of the “Large 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You most likely want 2 elite prospects to headline a bundle for Crochet and the Crimson Sox are one of many few groups to have the ability to do this and never subtract from their MLB roster.

GA Blood: The Reds stated they need Steer to spend extra time on the infield subsequent yr. Any pontifications on how his positional breakdown would find yourself trying?

Jon Becker: This ties in properly with the Noelvi Marte query we acquired earlier: relying on how the offseason shakes out, it’s attainable they slide Steer again to 3rd and Marte’s acquired to earn enjoying time elsewhere. One other risk is Matt McLain transferring to the outfield, the place he performed some within the AFL, and Steer slotting in at second.

Jon Becker: Proper now, we have now virtually all of Steer’s PT in left, primarily based extra on positional want: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?place=ALL&teamid=18

Colton: Assume the Pirates begin the season with Bubba on the roster? Now that they’ve misplaced the choose with Skenes not beginning the yr there

Jason Martinez: I don’t assume so. Not getting the draft choose will make them assume twice, however they’ve 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d assume they’ll simply comply with the identical plan as Skenes in 2024. So possibly a month in AAA and see how issues shake out. After all, Jared Jones compelled his method onto the Opening Day roster due to how dominant he was in spring. However I believe Falter and Ortiz have earned the possibility to at the least begin the season within the rotation.

Kate: Playing cards give Nootbaar one other shot as an on a regular basis man or is he a platoon bat going ahead?

Jon Becker: Nootbaar’s all the time greater than held his personal in opposition to lefties (he was truly higher in opposition to them by wRC+ this yr), and with 2025 being a rebuild/retool/reload/no matter you need to name it, there’s no purpose to platoon him, neither is there a fantastic platoon accomplice for him within the org proper now anyway.

alexis anthopolous: SS is an apparent spot for enchancment for the braves, and there’s loads of Adames/Kim hyperlinks, however who’re some viable commerce candidates?

Jason Martinez: I believe the Crimson Sox are going large this offseason in free company however I’m wondering if buying and selling Trevor Story to clear some wage can be a part of that plan. It labored out with that Chris Sale man so possibly ATL would have an interest.

Jon Becker: Jorge Mateo is another choice if his elbow surgical procedure restoration goes okay, and the Twins might effectively store Carlos Correa, although they’d must eat some money.

Sox Fan: The place does Juan Soto land and a contact prediction?

Jon Becker: I’m on the Mets practice just because they will and presumably will supply probably the most cash, and I don’t foresee him a reduction of probably tens of tens of millions to return to the Yankees. I’ve his contract at a really aggressive 15y/$692M, and I believe he clears $600M no downside.

Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I believe Steve Cohen is keen to outbid everybody. Whether or not he clears $600M or $700M will depend upon how aggressive different groups might be.

Matt: What sort of contract do y’all assume Hyeseong Kim will get?

Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I believe he will get greater than $15M per season due to how good he was in 2023. Took a step again in 2024, which is why I believe will probably be lower than 5 years. However there are simply not that many good shortstops on the market and solely 2 free brokers. And that helps his case quite a bit.

Oh sorry!!! I assumed you have been asking about Ha-Seong!. Studying these too rapidly.

Jon Becker: Yeah, I believe that’s about proper for Ha-seong (backloaded with an decide out since he had shoulder surgical procedure, maybe?), although if I would like a shortstop badly on opening day I’d reasonably be aggressive for Adames, in fact. As for Hyeseong Kim (no relation, however they did play collectively!), I believe he does fairly just like Ha-seong’s first MLB contract of 4y/$28M, possibly rather less since he’s acquired quite a bit much less energy potential.

Adam: Will the Phillies truly “shake up the roster” like they stated? If that’s the case, who do you see them buying and selling/transferring?

Jon Becker: I’m certain they’d love to maneuver Castellanos and Taijuan Walker, although transferring even one in every of them with out consuming a bunch of cash can be fairly miraculous, I’d say. By way of gamers who would truly garner an attention-grabbing return, I believe Bohm and Stott might be attention-grabbing, possibly even Ranger Suárez. The one actual untouchables are most likely Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Wheeler, Sánchez, Nola, Realmuto.

Insert Witty Title Right here: In case you have been the Rox GM, how would you attempt to form the roster in a 5 yr time-frame?

Jason Martinez: I all the time half-jokingly say that I’d love for them to re-create the Blake Avenue Bombers after which I simply begin naming each dude that has plus-plus energy (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, and so on.) so as to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it looks as if no lead is secure there and their lineup isn’t terrifying in any respect.

In all seriousness, I do assume they’re attempting to construct a workforce round younger pitching and protection. They weren’t horrible on the finish of final yr and so they do have a number of younger guys who’re shut (Dollander) and Marquez/Senzatela are again from TJ surgical procedure.

Jon Becker: Yeah, it looks as if they’re lastly focusing on attention-grabbing strikeout-heavy pitchers like Dollander and Brody Brecht as an alternative of falling in love with each man who throws a sinker. A giant a part of constructing a workforce like that’s figuring out who to present large contracts or extensions to, and so they’ve had some misses there (Bryant, Szenatela, all of the relievers a few years in the past, and so on.). The Tovar extension certain seems nice to this point, although.

Jack: Do you assume that if the Crimson Sox have been supply Seattle a bundle of Duran and one of many large 4, almost certainly Mayer, that may lastly get Dipoto to chew on buying and selling one in every of his pitchers?

Jon Becker: Yeah, I’ve seen Duran-for-[insert non-Castillo starter here] bandied about as a hypothetical however I don’t assume that will fairly sway Dipoto to even take into account that a lot in any respect. when you’re providing one man who’s a lineup pillar proper now and one other who might be one as quickly as midseason, I’d have a harder time saying no.

Lawless: How rapidly does Jordan Lawlar stand up and might he keep at SS or transfer to 3B?

Jason Martinez: I believe he’s the kind of prospect {that a} workforce will make area for as soon as he exhibits that he’s prepared. Bringing Suarez again buys them some extra time in case he’s not, however I can see a state of affairs the place he takes over at SS and Perdomo strikes right into a bench function. Or if the Dbacks actually love Perdomo an excessive amount of at SS, possibly Suarez strikes into extra of a 1B/3B/DH function sooner or later and Lawlar performs 3B on most days.

mariners man: Josh Rojas non-tender — you want?

Jon Becker: We’ve gotten a few questions on Rojas particularly, and he’s an excellent instance about why the non-tender deadline being this early within the offseason makes for some powerful choices. He’s a wonderfully sufficient — if uninspiring — common, however in non-tendering him now you run the danger of hanging out on different choices and never having the ability to do significantly better. Having Austin Shenton round helps, although, so I might see this one going both method forward of the 8 EST deadline.

diadem: Will Rodriguez and Bart break up duties in 2025? What % of enjoying time for every.

Jason Martinez: In case anybody doesn’t keep in mind, Endy Rodriguez was on monitor to be the Pirates’ beginning catcher in 2024 earlier than injuring his elbow final winter. And he can hit! So will probably be good to have him again. However with Bart trying like an excellent choice to play a majority of video games at catcher, they will ease Rodriguez again. So long as there’s some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they need to have the power to play each much more than some catching tandems. However I can see a 50/50 break up so long as Endy is wholesome with each getting DH at-bats.

Jon Becker: We simply acquired a query in about Henry Davis and it additionally ties again to an earlier query about commerce candidate catchers: Davis positively is one. May very well be a reverse-Joey Bart the place Davis himself finds much more success away from Pittsburgh.

Visitor: What’s your evaluation of the Angels’ strikes this offseason to this point?  They’ve been very energetic, however seemingly with none affect.

Jon Becker: That is mainly the Angels’ M.O. for latest offseasons, going for names over expertise, although at the least with Newman, Hendricks, and d’Arnaud they’re probably not taking enjoying time away from somebody extra attention-grabbing. Locking Soler in on day one of many offseason was … attention-grabbing … although.

#1MetsFan: What number of ABs does Ronnie Mauricio get in 2025? O/U 200.5

Jason Martinez: I’ll go together with the “over”, though I don’t assume they’re going to plan their offseason round him being an enormous a part of the workforce. However vital to recollect, previous to his damage, that he’s such an excellent prospect that there was speak about transferring him to 2B, 3B, or LF simply to get him within the lineup. I believe he must re-establish himself in AAA after which he might power himself into the image once more.

Jon Becker: I’ll take the over, solely as a result of it’s such a protracted season. Have a tricky time seeing him crack the Opening Day roster assuming the Mets are as aggressive as we anticipate, although.

Jon Becker: And with that, we’re all set for this week! Thanks everybody for stopping by and we’ll see you subsequent Friday. Wishing a Completely happy Thanksgiving to those that have fun!

Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for in the present day since Jon and I’ll have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls as soon as non-tenders are introduced. Sometimes, I believe 90 minutes is feasible on most Fridays.

Thanks for becoming a member of us and keep in mind you can all the time ship us questions on BlueSky (rosterresource.fangraphs.com / @jon-becker.com) or Twitter (@JasonRRMartinez / @jonbecker_).