On Monday the Dodgers traded Gavin Lux to the Reds for outfield prospect Mike Sirota, and Cincinnati’s 2025 Aggressive Steadiness Spherical A variety, which is the upcoming draft’s thirty seventh general decide. Lux, who turned 27 in November, is a profession .252/.326/.383 hitter in simply shy of 1,500 profession plate appearances. He’s getting into his first arbitration 12 months; the Reds may have him beneath contract for 3 seasons.
The Lux Period in Los Angeles was rocky though the crew had championship success round him. He grew to become certainly one of baseball’s greatest prospects throughout an unimaginable 2019 season by which he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 59 extra-base hits in 113 minor league video games. He spent the again half of that season, nonetheless age 21, at Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis, briefly made his large league debut, and was my no. 2 prospect in baseball getting into 2020. Expectations for him have been sky excessive, not solely by way of his influence but in addition the immediacy of that influence.
As an alternative, issues with Lux’s throwing accuracy arose through the pandemic season and have been an intermittent drawback ever since. His bout with the yips led to 2021 experimentation at third base and in left area, neither of which caught. The Dodgers appeared decided to maneuver Lux again to shortstop in 2023, however misfortune discovered Lux once more when he blew his ACL in a Cactus League sport and missed the entire 12 months. Again on the keystone in 2024, Lux turned in a median offensive season – he slashed .251/.320/.383 over 487 plate appearances with a profession excessive 10 dwelling runs and 100 wRC+ – with beneath common second base protection, culminating in 1.5 WAR.
Lux is an effective match on a Reds roster teeming with versatile infielders, most of whom hit right-handed. Whereas he’s anemic in opposition to lefties, particularly their sliders, Lux is a profession .264/.337/.408 hitter in opposition to righties and slashed .262/.332/.407 in opposition to them in 2024. The Reds look as if they’ll have the capability to play in-game matchups at a wide range of totally different positions in the event that they wish to, however from one other standpoint, they lack stability at each place however shortstop. Heart fielder TJ Friedl has been on the IL 5 instances throughout the final two years, second baseman Matt McLain bought Arizona Fall League reps in middle area when he returned from a critical shoulder harm of his personal. Spencer Steer (1B/LF), Jeimer Candelario (1B/3B), Santiago Espinal (2B/3B/SS), and Rule 5 decide Cooper Bowman (2B/OF) all play numerous totally different positions, a number of overlapping with the place Lux performs or has performed. All are additionally right-handed. The Reds don’t have a apparent first baseman (Christian Encarnacion-Strand is the projected starter there, however he was dangerous final season) and it’s attainable certainly one of both Steer or Candelario will occupy that spot daily, necessitating a platoon at their different place. It’s conceivable that Lux will revisit left area or third base in order that he, too, can convey some quantity of versatility to the desk and be a part of mentioned platoon, however irrespective of which gamers declare Opening Day roster spots in Cincinnati, they appear poised to maneuver in all places to assist guarantee favorable matchups for the offense.
The principle return on this deal for Los Angeles is the draft decide, the thirty seventh general choice in what I imagine to be a deep draft. Lux has carried out like a 45-grade participant up to now, and prospects of about that expertise degree are usually accessible within the Comp spherical of a deep class. This turns into the Dodgers’ first choice within the 2025 draft, as their abnormal first spherical decide was chuted 10 spots all the way down to fortieth general as a result of their large league payroll exceeded the second luxurious tax threshold. They now have three of this 12 months’s first 70 picks.
The transition from an infield with Lux to 1 with current Korean signee, Hye-seong Kim (evaluation right here), represents a sizeable improve for the Dodgers on protection. Kim has performed solely second base for the final a number of KBO seasons, however he’s an amazing athlete with nice vary, and it’s cheap to challenge that he’ll be capable of play an MLB-quality shortstop, in addition to a number of different positions, if given the chance. The Dodgers’ center infield contingent in 2024 was a yip-prone Lux, a number of guys of their mid-30s, and a rusty-from-injury Tommy Edman, whom they acquired on the commerce deadline. Their 2025 combine will depend upon what sort of shortstop defender Kim finally ends up being — proper now, they’re nonetheless planning to have Mookie Betts open the 12 months at brief — and is pending no matter else the Dodgers do between now and Opening Day.
The sidecar to the commerce is Sirota, a 21-year-old outfielder who was Cincinnati’s 2024 third spherical choice out of Northeastern, the place he hit .324/.458/.577 throughout his profession. (Unfamiliar readers needs to be conscious that school stats are bloated.) He has but to play an precise professional sport, however he participated in Cincinnati’s educational league exercise through the fall. Right here was my pre-draft report:
Speedy, power-over-hit middle area prospect with plus plate self-discipline. Tightly wound athlete with slim construct, wiry and powerful. Fingers are particularly full of life with low-ball energy. Possible going to swing beneath a ton of in-zone fastballs and be a below-average contact hitter. Pace matches in middle; reads and routes want polish however the footspeed is there. Projected points with the hit software and Sirota’s taste of construct/athleticism look extra like a part-timer. His on-base potential buoys his profile and provides Sirota a shot to be a Tyrone Taylor sort of complimentary outfielder.
The Dodgers usually goal gamers with speed-driven profiles and try to make them stronger (Jake Vogel, Kendall George, Zyhir Hope), and Sirota is of that ilk. That is additionally the second 12 months in a row the Dodgers have pounced on a not too long ago drafted prospect who had but to get his footing in professional ball (additionally Hope, from the Cubs).
So the Dodgers flip primarily a part-time participant right into a draft asset of comparable worth (albeit a slow-to-mature one) and a probable lesser, however respectable younger prospect in Sirota. In a vacuum it’s a reasonably even commerce, however figuring out they arguably changed Lux with a greater roster slot in a separate deal, after which cashed him in for a number of items looks like classic Rays-era Andrew Friedman snowballing belongings. For the Reds, Lux’s match on their roster and their want to compete for the NL Central crown helps justify issues on their finish, although it’s harder to swallow a smaller market crew coughing up such a excessive draft decide.
