Final offseason, the Reds assembled a frankly complicated quantity of infield depth. With the emergence of Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Noelvi Marte, there weren’t many areas accessible to begin with. They signed Jeimer Candelario, and already had Christian Encarnacion-Strand as an possibility at first. Spencer Steer moonlights within the infield too. That left Jonathan India as an odd man out, and he appeared like a transparent commerce candidate merely ready for dwelling.
In 2024, that good dwelling turned out to be Cincinnati. McLain missed all the 12 months after shoulder surgical procedure. Encarnacion-Strand bought harm in Could and didn’t return. Marte bought suspended for PED use. When all was stated and performed, the Reds ended up buying and selling for infield depth in Santiago Espinal. India performed in 151 video games and provided his typical OBP-heavy offense.
Holding onto India labored out for the Reds final 12 months, however there’s no manner they might’ve tried the identical plan once more. That might’ve been simply too many sources dedicated to 1 subset of the crew, and Cincinnati has wants throughout the roster. So after many months, the commerce we’ve all been anticipating for roughly a 12 months has come to move. The Reds traded India and outfielder Joey Wiemer to the Royals in trade for righty starter Brady Singer.
At first blush, this commerce feels unusual from the Reds’ standpoint. India could be a luxurious good for his or her crew, however he’s a legitimately good hitter with two years of fairly priced crew management remaining. He was their third-best hitter by WAR, and the Reds want individuals on base to benefit from their homer-friendly stadium. Singer was Kansas Metropolis’s fourth starter, and 700 innings into his profession, he’s not precisely a thriller field: He’ll offer you a 4-ish ERA in case you can put protection behind him. Not solely that, however the Reds needed to throw in Wiemer simply to get issues performed. What offers?
What offers is that my description of Singer was unnecessarily harsh. He’s a fourth starter solely as a result of the Royals had three glorious choices on the high of their rotation final 12 months. In the meantime, the Reds struggled to cobble collectively a full rotation final season regardless of a breakout 12 months from Hunter Greene and a powerful end from Nick Martinez. Singer is roughly league common – and the Reds rotation was comfortably worse than that. He slots in as their third starter for me, and so they might badly use the depth even when the innings aren’t fairly Cy Younger caliber.
You don’t should mission enchancment from Singer to grasp how he might assist the Reds. If he could make 30 begins and hold the ball on the bottom – a power all through his profession – he’ll substitute some really dire innings from final 12 months’s workers. He may not have big strikeout stuff, however he hardly ever walks anybody, and the subsequent time he permits a league-average variety of dwelling runs would be the first. Few followers get enthusiastic about gamers like Brady Singer – however almost each main league GM is tripping over themselves to amass extra like him if the worth is correct.
You additionally might persuade your self that Singer has extra left in him, in case you have been so inclined. He throws his finest pitch, a good slider with sneaky downward motion, in just about any depend and to just about any hitter. The whole lot else in his sport builds off of that slider. That feels like an arsenal that ought to include some strikeouts, as a result of the pitch is legitimately good. However he backs it up with a mixture of uninspiring fastballs, leaning on the form of his sinker to maintain the ball on the bottom relatively than throwing one thing with the intent of lacking bats.
If the Reds might coax one thing extra like a usable four-seamer out of Singer, even when he’s solely utilizing it in just a few favorable counts, he’d enhance on his strikeout numbers significantly. If he might add an offspeed pitch – his present changeup is hardly price mentioning – he might reduce into his sharp platoon splits. Begin with a median pitcher, and it’s simple to think about how issues might enhance.
Realistically, that’s an unlikely final result. If Singer have been going to show right into a bat-missing monster, he most likely would have by now. Pitchers aren’t inanimate lumps of clay to be acted upon by intelligent groups; they’re on the market making an attempt to enhance themselves already, with offseason throwing packages and pitching laboratories accessible to all. It’s affordable to imagine that that is what Singer is: a strong pitcher who you’ll all the time really feel a bit of bit uncomfortable about beginning within the playoffs.
Right here’s the factor, although: That’s fairly similar to the worth India supplies on offense. 4 years right into a profession that began with Rookie of the Yr honors, he’s compiled a 107 wRC+. He’s a affected person hitter with sense of the strike zone, however he doesn’t have the ability to make pitchers pay for errors in the identical manner that really nice hitters do.
That’s not meant as a pejorative. For those who’re in search of a hitter who will get on base at a wholesome clip, put the ball in play, and rack up further base hits sometimes via sheer quantity, India suits the invoice. He’s quick sufficient to make performs on the basepaths too. All of it works out to a better-than-average hitter, and people don’t develop on bushes. The Royals gave 3,700 plate appearances to batters who completed the season with a wRC+ decrease than 100 final 12 months, simply to offer you an concept of how useful India’s contributions might be.
That offensive prowess is India’s finest talent, and it makes him leadoff hitter. Mix that with plus protection at an up-the-middle spot, and also you’d have an All Star. The issue is, India’s not a fantastic defender. He’s higher suited to first base or DH than second, the place he’s compiled a number of the worst numbers within the majors over the previous 4 seasons. Groups solely get to play so many gamers at positions decrease on the defensive spectrum, and India’s bat doesn’t stand out as a lot in opposition to that cohort.
I believe the Rookie of the Yr win anchored individuals to count on a degree of offensive manufacturing from India that he isn’t prone to attain. If he have been 30 or 40% higher than common offensively, the equation would look completely different, and people rarefied heights felt achievable after he burst onto the scene with a .269/.376/.459 slash line and 21 homers. However every of these statistics stay his profession highs.
That’s to not say that India can’t enhance. Simply as in Singer’s case, I can think about a model of India that takes the identical fundamental constructing blocks and modifications issues across the margins to create higher outcomes. He might focus extra on lifting and pulling middle-up pitches, the a part of the plate the place he does probably the most harm. Given his sturdy contact expertise and plate self-discipline, searching a pitch and making an attempt to catch it out entrance for a pulled fly ball looks as if an affordable method to unlock a bit extra energy to go along with his walks and singles.
Like in Singer’s case, I don’t discover that change very probably. We’ve seen 2,228 plate appearances of India within the majors, and he’s succeeded with no pull-centric method. The most definitely final result for him in 2025 is extra of the identical, which fits the Royals simply advantageous.
The core of this commerce is a mismatch of surpluses. The Reds had extra hitters than locations to play them and a threadbare pitching workers. The Royals appreciated their rotation fairly a bit however didn’t have sufficient occurring offensively. The salaries and crew management are shut; Singer’s incomes a bit extra, and each will turn out to be free brokers after the 2026 season. The skillsets are additionally comparable – barely above common in an unexciting manner.
The Royals netted Wiemer within the trade as a result of Singer has a extra universally priceless skillset. Extra groups want pitchers than bat-first second basemen, and so Kansas Metropolis was capable of get a second intriguing participant to make the scales stability.
Wiemer was a fringe high 100 prospect within the Brewers system earlier than he debuted as an harm substitute in 2023. He has big uncooked instruments, with blazing velocity and plus energy to all fields. He struggles mightily to make contact, nevertheless, and a down 2024 noticed him go from potential platoon starter to struggling minor leaguer who was traded from Milwaukee to Cincinnati on the deadline. His inclusion on this commerce is usually as a lottery ticket. If he can get his contact points underneath management, he’d be a pure in cavernous Kauffman Stadium. If he can’t, he would possibly nonetheless be fourth outfielder and defensive substitute in a park that makes outfield protection play up. That’s a strong addition, although actually not an earth-shattering one; he’ll probably begin 2025 at Triple-A.
It’d sound clichéd at this level, however I like this commerce for each groups. I disliked the best way the Reds constructed their crew final 12 months. There have been simply too many infielders and never sufficient spots, notably for a crew making an attempt to win with restricted sources. It’s not a lot the wage outlay – a few of Cincinnati’s finest gamers are pre-arbitration guys — however the Reds are by no means going to area a crew filled with All-Stars. There’ll all the time be holes to patch with the very best accessible funds possibility. Having Singer on the crew as a substitute of India reduces the variety of holes and does so affordably.
Kansas Metropolis’s aspect isn’t fairly so clear, as a result of India makes the crew’s DH and second base rotations tough, however I nonetheless suppose it was price it for a membership that has nice pitching however struggles to attain runs. Like Cincinnati, the Royals are all the time going to be coping with just a few weak factors given their funds constraints. India appears like a much bigger incremental acquire over his potential substitute than Singer for the Royals, and so they saved a bit of cash within the cut price whereas including an intriguing younger participant. I believe the varied fringe advantages offset the potential roster headache.
Extra broadly talking, this commerce says rather a lot about how groups worth established gamers underneath short-term crew management. From a uncooked surplus worth standpoint, these two gamers are good offers. They’re going to make much less cash than they’d price to amass on the free agent market, and so they’ll accomplish that for 2 years. However they’re not making that a lot much less, and so they aren’t that significantly better than common.
Fashionable groups covet membership management and value financial savings. However they notably worth these attributes when one aspect or the opposite is an unbelievable deal – six years of an All-Star or Ozzie Albies for pennies on the greenback. In addition they covet star energy; six years of a two-win participant is far much less fascinating than three years of a four-win possibility. Loads of contenders would eschew a commerce like this completely; they search for their Singers and Indias both internally or in free company.
This commerce labored as a result of the Reds and Royals don’t behave like your common contender, despite the fact that they each have playoff aspirations. That made for a helpful link-up, albeit a 12 months later than I anticipated from Cincinnati’s aspect. I believe either side shall be fairly pleased with this deal in six months’ time.
