At finest, the Rays (54-52) and Cubs (51-56) are on the outskirts of their leagues’ respective Wild Card races, and whereas each have been busy forward of the July 30 commerce deadline, they’re geared in direction of bettering for down the highway reasonably than this season. On Sunday, the 2 groups got here collectively for a swap of club-controlled third basemen, with Isaac Paredes heading to Chicago and Christopher Morel to Tampa Bay together with a pair of pitching prospects, righties Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson.
The 25-year-old Paredes is not any stranger to the Cubs, as they signed him out of Mexico for an $800,000 bonus in July 2015, then traded him to Tigers on July 31, 2017 — when he was nonetheless in A-ball — alongside Jeimer Candelario in alternate for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson. Since being dealt to the Rays in April 2022, he’s developed into an efficient middle-of-the-lineup hitter. After receiving down-ballot MVP help for his 31-homer, .250/.352/.488 (137 wRC+) efficiency final 12 months, he made his first All-Star staff this 12 months, and is presently hitting .245/.357/.435 (130 wRC+) with 16 homers.
Regardless of that output, Paredes doesn’t hit the ball very arduous. His 85-mph common exit velocity ranks in simply the fourth percentile, whereas his 26.1% hard-hit price is within the fifth percentile; his 5.4% barrel price is within the twenty sixth percentile. However Paredes excels at pulling fly balls, and significantly at depositing them into the left subject nook, which at Tropicana Subject is nearer to residence plate (315 ft) than any present ballpark, since balls hit to Fenway Park’s Inexperienced Monster (310 ft away however with a 37-foot excessive wall) and Minute Maid’s Crawford Packing containers (315 ft away with a 21-foot excessive wall) each require larger elevation to get out. Getting into Sunday, Paredes’ 46 pulled fly balls tied him with Anthony Santander for the main league lead, with all 16 of his homers coming by way of that route.
Right here’s a take a look at his spray charts for the previous two seasons:
For the reason that begin of 2022, Paredes has the very best price of pulled flies within the majors, however notice that he’s not precisely scorching them:
Highest Charge of Pulled Fly Balls, 2022–24
| Participant | Pulled FB% | HR | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA | EV (MPH) | Laborious Hit% | Barrel/BBE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes | 51.3% | 65 | 1.957 | .892 | 1.007 | .473 | 93.3 | 53.8% | 29.4% |
| Joey Gallo | 49.0% | 31 | 1.883 | 1.597 | .986 | .830 | 100.6 | 77.9% | 46.8% |
| Albert Pujols | 48.7% | 15 | 1.676 | 1.334 | .874 | .701 | 98.0 | 70.3% | 43.2% |
| Matt Carpenter | 45.5% | 19 | 1.646 | 1.158 | .823 | .591 | 95.3 | 58.0% | 36.0% |
| Danny Jansen | 43.9% | 31 | 1.650 | 1.155 | .820 | .594 | 95.6 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| Mike Ford | 43.2% | 17 | 1.921 | 1.312 | .977 | .682 | 96.4 | 63.2% | 47.4% |
| David Fry | 43.1% | 10 | 1.700 | .966 | .888 | .495 | 94.9 | 58.1% | 35.5% |
| Ryan Noda | 43.0% | 14 | 1.649 | 1.354 | .851 | .708 | 97.8 | 67.6% | 40.5% |
| Adam Duvall | 42.9% | 32 | 1.632 | 1.316 | .867 | .695 | 95.4 | 57.3% | 37.5% |
| Jason Heyward | 42.3% | 11 | 1.238 | .730 | .620 | .378 | 90.9 | 40.9% | 22.7% |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Santander’s 67 homers leads the majors in that span, although his price is simply 41.1%.
“Isaac Paredes Retains getting Away With It,” wrote Ben Clemens final month whereas exploring his excessive batted ball tendencies. The catch now’s that Wrigley Subject is 355 ft down the left subject line, so one has to surprise how properly Paredes’ manufacturing will translate to the Windy Metropolis. Through Statcast, 25 of final 12 months’s 31 homers and 11 of this 12 months’s 16 would have been out at Wrigley, but when the remainder of these are routine fly balls, his numbers will take a success.
Defensively, Paredes is kind of common at third base, and has some expertise at second and first; he’s even performed shortstop in a pinch. He’s making $3.4 million this 12 months as a Tremendous Two, and so he has three extra years of management remaining.
With 2.9 WAR this 12 months and 4.3 WAR final 12 months, Paredes actually eyeballs as an improve on Morel, who’s additionally 25 however who has struggled mightily this 12 months to the purpose that he made my Alternative Degree Killers record. He’s 0.1 wins under substitute stage after netting simply 1.5 WAR final 12 months.
Increasing upon what I wrote for the Killers record lower than two weeks in the past, Morel’s 18 residence runs put him on tempo to surpass final 12 months’s complete of 26, however nearly the whole lot else about his recreation has gone backward. He’s hitting simply .199/.302/.373 for a 92 wRC+, down 27 factors from final 12 months. Whereas he’s reduce his strikeout price from 31.0% to 24.5%, he’s additionally shed 2.3 mph in common exit velocity (from 92.1 mph to 89.8). His .242 xBA and .451 xSLG are fairly much like final 12 months’s numbers, and his .346 xwOBA is a six-point enchancment, however the place his wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by seven factors in 2023, his precise manufacturing is 47 factors shy of his anticipated mark this season.
Possibly it’s simply unhealthy luck, however Morel’s excessive pull price (48.5%) might be an element, significantly provided that he pulls so many balls on the bottom. Righties throughout the majors are collectively hitting .219 and slugging .262 on pulled grounders, however Morel is at .151 AVG/.164 SLG. Defensively, he ranks final on the place in FRV (-9), is tied for third-worst in DRS (-5), and is seventh-worst in UZR (-2.4).
That’s not tremendously promising, however maybe the Rays can get Morel to raise the ball with larger consistency and dunk it into the left subject nook à la Paredes. He’s cheap, making simply $767,000 this 12 months, and has another 12 months earlier than he’s eligible for arbitration. However he might not even get to play frequently for lengthy, as 21-year-old Junior Caminero, the Rays’ high prospect (and no. 3 general), might get known as up quickly.
The Rays additionally obtained two pitching prospects in alternate for Paredes. Of the pair, the 26-year-old Bigge is the one with main league expertise, albeit simply 4 appearances totaling 3.1 innings earlier this month. A Twelfth-round pick of Harvard in 2019, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound righty has battled accidents throughout his skilled profession, together with a torn labrum in his hip in 2021 and an indirect pressure earlier this 12 months. Because of a velocity acquire this 12 months, he’s been dominant when accessible; in 13.1 innings at Triple-A Iowa, he’s struck out 20 (41.7%) whereas permitting simply three hits and 6 walks. He’s on The Board as a 40 FV prospect. Right here’s what Eric Longenhagen needed to say once I requested him about Bigge at this time:
Bigge was sitting 88-92 at Harvard… however had a spike into the 92-96 mph vary within the bullpen after he was drafted. For the previous couple of seasons, Bigge’s stuff has ridden a little bit of a curler coaster; there have been occasions when he’s sitting 92-94 and others (like extra just lately) when he’s sitting 97-99. He’s additionally handled accidents and wildness at occasions, however in 2024 Bigge modified his placement on the rubber and he appears extra snug from this start line. After beginning the 12 months on the IL, he has thrown actually arduous and stored his walks at an affordable stage. If the adjustments to Bigge’s operation have resulted in precise strike-throwing progress, then he’s going to be a superb large league reliever. His upper-80s cutter and mid-80s sweeper give him two different above-average pitches (the cutter is healthier). If the strikes are a small pattern blip, then he’ll be restricted to extra low-leverage spots throughout his Rays tenure.
The 22-year-old Johnson is the larger prospect, each actually (he lists at 6-foot-6, 205 kilos) and figuratively (he’s acquired a 40+ FV grade). A Fifteenth-round 2023 pick of Ball State, he’s cut up his first skilled season between the Cubs’ A-level Myrtle Seashore and Excessive-A South Bend associates, posting a 3.54 ERA and a pair of.73 FIP with a 32.5% strikeout price in 61 innings, typically going three or 4 at a time in a beginning or tandem function. Right here’s what Eric needed to say about Johnson:
Johnson’s velocity has taken a leap and he appears way more bodily now than he did a 12 months in the past at Ball State. In reality, Johnson has been throwing tougher and tougher throughout the 2024 season. His fastball averaged about 92 in a begin a couple of month earlier than the 2024 commerce deadline, and in his ultimate outing, he was as much as 97 early and averaged 94-95. He’s at all times had a brilliant quick arm motion, however now Johnson appears to have extra constant really feel for launch and he’s throwing loads of strikes with this funky tailing fastball. His breaking ball is comfortably plus, with tight, late two-plane motion. If Johnson can enhance his presently below-average changeup, then he’ll have a starter’s coffer of pitches. His arm circle is so comically quick and tight that it is probably not within the playing cards for him to try this, and as a substitute maybe the Rays will assist him develop a second distinct breaking ball. Johnson has a center reduction ground with the fastball/breaking ball combo he’s presently wielding, and in addition has some late-bloomer traits (his dimension and small faculty background) that point out he would possibly be capable of maintain bettering.
All instructed, it’s an attention-grabbing haul for the Rays, who’ve now traded two lineup regulars (Randy Arozarena is the opposite), two starters (Aaron Civale and Zach Eflin), and two relievers (Jason Adam and Phil Maton), shaving roughly $12 million off this 12 months’s payroll alone whereas including 14 prospects to their system. As for the Cubs, they’ve most likely improved their main league roster, however the excessive form of Paredes’ manufacturing does create some added threat. Even when he’s an improve, he’s not going to show their season round, but when his manufacturing interprets, he might be a middle-of-the-lineup cornerstone for the subsequent few years.
