For a month or so yearly it appears, Danny Jansen seems to be like Babe Ruth. The one season out of the previous 4 wherein he hasn’t put up a 20-game stretch with a wRC+ over 200 was 2023, and he was fairly superior in 2023 anyway; he posted a 115 wRC+ total that yr, whereas taking part in essentially the most offensively-challenged place within the sport, no much less. So in some methods, the Rays might need simply signed the very best offensive catcher in baseball:
@JeffPassan tweetedCatcher Danny Jansen and the Tampa Bay Rays are in settlement on a one-year, $8.5 million contract that features a mutual choice for a second season, sources inform ESPN. Jansen, who has performed in Toronto and Boston, stays within the AL East. On it: @ByRobertMurray and @TBTimes_Rays.
— Passanthallich (@passanthalbot.bsky.social) 2024-12-06T18:18:18.487825+00:00
After all, relating to total manufacturing, they completely didn’t. Jansen was white sizzling to begin the yr in 2024 – after which ended the season with an 89 wRC+, going from goal deadline acquisition to backup within the course of. And whereas he has certainly hit nicely when wholesome, he will get harm quite a bit. Throughout these aforementioned 4 seasons, he’s gathered only one,078 plate appearances. He hit the IL twice in 2021, twice once more in ’22, twice but once more in ’23, after which missed the beginning of the ’24 season rehabbing from the final ’23 harm.
So perhaps Jansen is secretly an incredible hitter – or perhaps it’s a miracle that he may even nonetheless play baseball. Both of these might be true, and naturally the reality is probably going someplace in between. The Rays are famously good at discerning the place within the “someplace within the center” gamers lie, and as such, they really feel like a pure house for Jansen.
Discovering catchers who can each hit and subject is sort of inconceivable. The Rays haven’t notably prioritized them within the draft, and so they actually haven’t gone out of their technique to commerce for or signal marquee catchers. That’s how they ended up with Ben Rortvedt (profession wRC+: 70) as their main catcher in 2024. In 2023, that position went to Christian Bethancourt (profession wRC+: 71). In 2022, Bethancourt backed up Francisco Mejía (profession wRC+: a scintillating 86, although with poor protection).
The purpose of this listing isn’t to disgrace the Rays. OK, it’s a little bit bit to disgrace the Rays; during the last three years, they’re eighth within the majors in successful share however twenty fourth in WAR produced by catchers. Largely, although, I’m simply making an attempt to level out that their technique in recent times has largely concerned utterly ignoring catcher and hoping issues work out anyway.
It’s onerous to argue with that plan within the huge sense, as a result of how on the planet are you going to get a star catcher? They don’t hit free company. You may’t simply commerce for them, as a result of the groups who’ve them need to maintain them. Given the wear and tear and tear that comes with taking part in the place, the celebs don’t even final lengthy more often than not. Throwing your arms up and shifting on seems like a justifiable resolution provided that context.
I feel I like this new technique from Tampa Bay extra, although. Is Jansen going to be an All-Star? It’s actually a lot lower than a 50/50 proposition. However he’ll most likely be a median hitter, or not less than in that neighborhood. Even higher, not less than from the Rays’ perspective: He gained’t break the financial institution. Early this winter, pitchers have commanded luxury-good salaries. The Rays are budget-conscious at the very best of instances, and this isn’t the very best of instances. After Hurricane Milton ripped the roof off of Tropicana Subject, the Rays have been compelled to relocate to a minor league stadium for 2025, and their future house remains to be very a lot up within the air.
In my eyes, that eradicated them from the marketplace for free agent pitchers. The Rays excel at discovering kinds of gamers that the league as an entire undervalues, and nicely, that’s actually not the case for beginning pitchers proper now. You may quibble over whether or not they’re correctly valued or overvalued relative to different gamers, however nobody’s two years and $34 million (plus an choose out) for Frankie Montas and saying “how did he settle for such a low deal.”
Jansen, alternatively? He’s getting solely $8.5 million, and I feel there’s a superb likelihood he’ll rack up as a lot worth as Montas subsequent yr. That wouldn’t be the case for each group; the groups with established catching choices wouldn’t get that a lot use out of him, and if I have been operating a group that signed Jansen, I’d need both to platoon him or not less than give him loads of relaxation. Provided that Rortvedt is a lefty, one thing like a timeshare the place Jansen performs two-thirds of the time, with Rortvedt largely taking part in towards righty opposition appears nice.
After all, there’s a straightforward method this signing may not work, and arguably it’s the rationale that Jansen was obtainable for under a one-year deal. Like I already talked about, catchers have a brief shelf life. Jansen simply put up his worst yr as a significant leaguer, and that prolonged harm historical past means he’s by no means eclipsed 400 plate appearances in a season. His barrel charge, hard-hit charge, and common exit velocity all declined to scary ranges in 2024.
If there have been no danger to signing Jansen, the Rays seemingly wouldn’t have come calling. However I feel the chance is overblown, notably at catcher. Even a much-diminished Jansen could be an enormous improve from what they’ve been getting out of their catchers in recent times. Even when they may signal a comparable participant at one other place to the identical deal, they’d obtain much less of an improve; Jansen is bettering their weakest place.
One other mind-set about it: Excluding relievers, I can’t consider a participant prone to signal for lower than Jansen who might be All-Star in 2025. Jansen matches that invoice for me, although. I’m not saying it’s seemingly, however the offensive outbursts he produces each season are actually All-Star caliber. The query is how incessantly he can entry that type, and Tampa Bay looks like a perfect touchdown spot for him in that sense; the Rays glorious at placing their gamers in the very best place to succeed.
Jansen’s offensive sport, even when he’s sizzling, is extraordinarily polarized. He’s not a well-rounded hitter; he’s a lift-and-pull masher who’s making an attempt to tuck each ball over the left subject wall. Solely Adam Duvall and famous Rays overachiever Isaac Paredes have pulled their fly balls extra incessantly in recent times. There’s a ton of Paredes in his sport, the truth is: He not often swings and misses, exhibits persistence on the plate, and will get low-cost homers and low BABIPs because of his method.
Clearly, the Paredes playbook has already labored as soon as in Tampa Bay. It’d get even higher this yr; Baltimore simply made its left subject fence a bit much less ridiculous, and the AL East was already a superb place for righty energy because of Fenway Park. Steinbrenner Subject, the Rays’ non permanent house, is a wild card within the combine. It replicates Yankee Stadium’s dimensions precisely, and whereas it has performed like a pitcher’s park within the minors, I feel it’s affordable to anticipate a impartial and even barely pro-hitter marks within the bigs. The one wrinkle right here is that the left subject nook is barely farther away than the Trop’s foul pole.
My prediction, given all that: Jansen goes to hit for energy persistently when he performs, and the Rays will discover him stadium and pitching matchups that emphasize his finest traits. I’m additionally anticipating an IL stint – generally previous efficiency is indicative of future outcomes – and acceptable-but-not-great protection. It’ll be a a lot totally different look from Rays catchers of latest years, that’s for positive.
I’m not sure that the Jansen signing will work out. How might I be? However I do assume it’s a classically Rays-y transfer, the sort that has served them so nicely for greater than a decade now. The remainder of the league is scouring free company for pitching, however the Rays have already got a superb pitching workers, and they also’re purchasing elsewhere. They’re getting a participant who resembles a former Tampa Bay star, at an inexpensive charge, at their weakest place. Make a ton of bets like this, and also you’ll do nicely in the long term. That’s roughly the franchise motto at this level.
