Yearly, it appears like a handful of groups don’t belong within the NFL Playoffs, and solely a choose few can win all of it. This 12 months isn’t any completely different. There are high-flying offenses, quarterbacks who all the time appear to discover a means, and some groups which are comfortable to be right here.
Right this moment, we’ll separate the pretenders from the contenders by placing every workforce right into a tier to find out who has the perfect probability at hoisting a Lombardi trophy a month from now.
Begin making trip plans
14. Houston Texans
The Texans kick off the underside quartet after struggling all season in opposition to a bottom-10 schedule. C.J. Stroud went from sensational to suspect in a single calendar 12 months. The offense was lackluster when wholesome, they usually’ve solely trended within the flawed course since shedding Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell for the season.
If Houston wins within the first spherical, it’ll be due to their protection. They make you one-dimensional, don’t enable the massive play via the air, and completed the season with the second-highest strain charge in opposition to the quarterback.
Star gamers rise to the event. That’s one thing Stroud did at Ohio State on the largest stage. If Houston advances past the primary spherical, it’ll be as a result of Stroud, Will Anderson Jr., or Derek Stingley Jr. carry out like the highest total draft picks they have been coming into the league. Don’t rule out a Nico Collins breakout sport, both.
Nonetheless, accidents at huge receiver and limitations on offense give Houston the bottom ceiling of any workforce within the playoffs.
13. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels got here into the league because the reigning Heisman winner. These forms of gamers have unrealistic expectations. The Commanders had no enterprise making the playoffs. However Daniels helped Washington rating at the least 26 factors in eight of their video games.
Kliff Kingsbury’s second probability hasn’t gone unnoticed in the course of the head teaching cycle. He’s helped Washington’s floor sport rank fourth in dashing success charge since Week 11. In high-leverage video games, Daniels’s improv abilities on the bottom have bailed Washington out time and time once more. Sprinkle in an enormous play right here and there, and that’s how the Commanders made the postseason.
It’s the opposite aspect of the ball that’ll be the explanation the Commanders are one-and-done within the playoffs. The Cooper Rush-led Cowboys scored 34 factors in opposition to Washington. Pittsburgh, whose offense leaves rather a lot to be desired, reached 28 factors.
Washington acquired much-needed reinforcements, getting Jonathan Allen again in Week 17. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore can also be an enormous enhance, however there’s nonetheless little purpose to consider these two can be sufficient to decelerate Tampa Bay. Washington is forward of schedule, and that’ll present this weekend.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin’s workforce went 0-4 down the stretch, failing to surpass 17 factors in every contest. However profitable horny within the playoffs doesn’t matter, and the Steelers are the kind of workforce to win a sport 18-16 — ask the Ravens.
Pittsburgh is sweet sufficient in opposition to the run defensively to muck any sport up. We’ll get to see playoff Russ in motion. Historical past means that he’ll make the Steelers aggressive. George Pickens is one reception away from placing Pittsburgh in scoring place, and perhaps Arthur Smith will make Jaylen Warren the point of interest for a change.
It’s robust to neglect the previous month or a loss to the Browns in November. Tomlin’s “us in opposition to the world” mentality works within the common season, however the Steelers by no means felt like a workforce that would string collectively a number of wins in opposition to high quality opponents, and that received’t change this month.
11. Los Angeles Chargers
Typically talking, at any time when you could have an elite quarterback, you could have an opportunity to beat anyone. Justin Herbert’s playoff debut comes on the highway together with his greatest goal, a rookie slot receiver.
Herbert has the best proportion of on-target throws of any playoff quarterback and was second in PFF’s “big-time throws.” We’ve seen Herbert bail the Chargers out of suboptimal conditions all 12 months and go above and past what he’s requested.
Regardless of dealing with the twenty fourth best schedule of defenses, it is a Chargers workforce that completed twenty ninth within the NFL in dashing success charge. You possibly can’t be taken severely in the event you can’t run the ball within the playoffs.
It doesn’t assist that Joshua Palmer, who’s fourth on the workforce in targets, has been dominated out. That places extra strain on rookie Ladd McConkey.
The Chargers are one other workforce forward of schedule. Their protection will present its flaws, probably inflicting them to be one-and-done within the playoffs. Every time they performed an offense with a pull down the stretch, Los Angeles struggled to get off the sphere.
This isn’t a workforce that feels reliable, particularly on the highway.
So that you’re saying there’s an opportunity
10. Denver Broncos
These subsequent three groups performed with sufficient variance all through the season the place it wouldn’t be shocking for them to tug off at the least one upset. Does that imply it’ll occur? Not essentially.
However just a few weeks in the past the Denver Broncos had a commanding first half lead over the Chargers, however blew it as the sport progressed. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix ended the season on a excessive word, finishing at the least 72 p.c of his passes in every of the ultimate three video games. Denver didn’t play essentially the most troublesome schedule, however they scored in bunches.
Denver completed sixth in EPA per play since Week 11, which means they’ve the potential of producing massive performs each drive. That’s the important thing to success within the playoffs whenever you get fewer possessions than regular.
The higher information for Denver is that they completed third in EPA per play defensively, and have been one of the vital stingiest dashing defenses within the second half. Zach Allen lastly received the popularity he deserved, whereas Nik Bonitto is a budding star, and Patrick Surtain shouldn’t be the cornerback you wish to check.
Denver sits on the high of the “forward of schedule groups.” They’ve every little thing you might want to pull off an upset, however we fear that there’s not sufficient firepower outdoors of Courtland Sutton to make a run.
9. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings can be ranked increased in the event that they have been taking part in at dwelling. Their protection makes you earn each yard, are wonderful at stopping the run, and might trigger sufficient chaos to pressure you right into a mistake.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are one of many higher huge receiver duos within the NFL. It’s a shock at any time when a workforce holds Jefferson underneath 100 receiving yards.
However Aaron Jones by no means received going in the course of the second half of the season. You’re telling me the Vikings hopes relaxation on the correct arm of Sam Darnold on the highway? Have enjoyable with that.
It is a Vikings workforce that struggled to tug away from the Jaguars, Titans, Bears, and Seahawks on the highway within the second half, and didn’t rating double-digits in opposition to the Lions. They’ve expertise, however are a special squad on the freeway.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Love the Buccaneers. Hate their draw. Baker Mayfield is the quarterback you wish to go to battle with in a do-or-die scenario. Mayfield places his physique on the road for each completion.
Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and the emergence of Jalen Mcmillan provides Tampa Bay a stable trio of go catchers. They’re additionally efficient utilizing their operating backs within the passing sport.
Talking of, now’s the time for Liam Coen to unleash Bucky Irving. It’s the playoffs. Irving single-handedly received the Bucs video games down the stretch. Reward him now that it’s the playoffs.
Tampa Bay was second in EPA per play and success charge offensively. They will rating, and I absolutely anticipate them to gentle the scoreboard up in opposition to Washington. However can they get any stops shifting ahead? Their numbers say sure, however the schedule says they haven’t performed anyone.
We’ll consider it once we see it, however wouldn’t rule out Tampa Bay giving whoever they face within the divisional spherical extra points than anticipated.
One thing smells fishy right here
7. Detroit Lions
If I haven’t misplaced you but, I most likely will by having these three groups lumped collectively. Let’s begin with Detroit, the No. 1 seed within the NFC.
In Week 18, many individuals noticed a dominant 31-9 efficiency. I noticed a protection that would’ve simply given up 24 factors had Darnold hit three or 4 routine performs.
The week earlier than, the Lions allowed 34 factors to the 49ers. In that sport, the Niners missed a pair of discipline objectives and threw two interceptions. So, it may have simply been 40+ for San Francisco.
Two weeks earlier than, Josh Allen and the Payments scored 48. We all know the Lions can rating. However you need to have a spine defensively, and I haven’t seen something to counsel they’ll get stops when they should within the playoffs, which is why they’re ranked so low.
6. Inexperienced Bay Packers
When you requested me which workforce was essentially the most troublesome to explain, it’d be the cheeseheads. There have been factors in the course of the common season the place I assumed Inexperienced Bay was the perfect workforce within the NFC. Accidents, inconsistencies, and a passing offense with out an identification will forestall the Packers from profitable the Tremendous Bowl. Shedding big-play risk Christian Watson will show pricey.
When Edgerrin Cooper is on the sphere, the Packers have the most effective defenses within the NFL. They restrict explosive performs as a lot as anyone Inexperienced Bay’s difficulty is as soon as the opponent reaches the pink zone, it often leads to a landing.
I do know Jordan Love has a fadeaway throw of 1 foot for 40 yards in his again pocket. The explanation you exit and get a Josh Jacobs is for the playoffs. Matt LaFLeur may have the Packers in the perfect conditions potential, and Jeff Hafley’s protection will proceed to play bully ball.
However one thing has been off with the Packers all 12 months and projecting them to do one thing thy haven’t all 12 months — persistently beat the great groups on their schedule — appears like an enormous ask.
5. Buffalo Payments
Buffalo has arguably the perfect participant within the NFL at Josh Allen. Every time they take the sphere, it’s a shock if the Payments don’t rating 30 factors.
The addition of Amari Cooper hasn’t completed a lot on a right down to down foundation, though Cooper has an enormous reception a sport. It nonetheless appears like Khalil Shakir the one huge receiver Allen can belief, however that’s not adequate within the playoffs.
James Prepare dinner has been all or nothing, however the nothing occurs extra usually than many are keen to confess, particularly in opposition to the highest tier of defenses. So, Buffalo will do what they all the time do and anticipate Allen to get them into good spots and out of porous conditions. That works within the common season, however I’ve my doubts within the postseason.
Allen won’t have a alternative to attain 30 the way in which Buffalo’s protection has been taking part in. If I’ve a tough time seeing them stopping Denver, who will it look in opposition to Baltimore the subsequent week? Or Kansas Metropolis after that? The Payments are one other workforce I’ve struggled with all season, and consider they’re extra paper tigers than Tremendous Bowl champs.
The actual threats
4. Los Angeles Rams
Playoff McVay. Playoff Stafford. Better of all, the Rams path to the massive sport means they’ll must undergo the defenses of the Vikings and Lions earlier than the NFC Championship. McVay — who’s the perfect coach within the NFL for my cash — isn’t going to wrestle on offense when taking part in in a dome.
Which one of many above defenses do you belief to decelerate Puka Nacua? Because the offensive line has gotten more healthy, the Rams dashing assault has stabilized their offense. That makes their play-action and display sport all of the simpler.
The Rams run protection has quietly been efficient down the stretch. Their line of defense, led by rookie Jared Verse, is likely to be essentially the most underrated group in your complete playoffs. They play bully ball and dwell on the opposite aspect of the scrimmage.
This workforce is essentially the most slept on within the playoff discipline. The Rams are my decide to signify the NFC within the Tremendous Bowl.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Expertise-wise, the Eagles are superior to all people within the NFC. Not even two months in the past, they destroyed the Rams on their dwelling discipline. The Eagles beat the Packers, Commanders, Ravens, and Steelers this season.
To me, that is the perfect protection within the postseason. Jalen Carter is unblockable. Josh Sweat persistently wins, and the pace, athleticism, and instincts on the Eagles protection is second to none. The one fear can be inexperience within the secondary and at linebacker. Qunyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are first-year gamers. Nakobe Dean is principally a rookie. A wise coach, perhaps one residing in Los Angeles, will look to isolate these three and check their youth.
For a workforce with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and Devonta Smith, you’d suppose the Eagles would cruise to 35 factors a sport.
With their offensive line, how may they not? Once more, talent-wise, it’s troublesome to doubt Philly. However Hurts hasn’t performed significant soccer in almost a month, they usually undergo lulls offensively that make you surprise how checked within the Eagles are. But it surely’s the playoffs, and there are good to nice gamers everywhere in the discipline for the Eagles. I see them squeaking by the Packers, blowing out Tampa Bay, and falling flat on their faces at dwelling in opposition to the Rams in what can be a disappointing end to a powerful season.
2. Baltimore Ravens
Will this lastly be the season the “playoff Lamar” jokes stop?
It was one other ho-hum season for Jackson after he threw for over 4,100 yards and totaled 45 touchdowns. Baltimore’s offense would undergo stretches the place they seemed clunky. Then, you’d lookup and see they’ve 30+ factors. They’re the perfect dashing offense in soccer, and also you’d suppose Todd Monken leans on Lamar’s legs greater than ever.
Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Seemingly are constant. But when this offense reaches the Tremendous Bowl, it’ll be as a result of Derrick Henry, who tied for the NFL’s lead with 25 rushes of at the least 15 yards and led the NFL in first downs.
Statistically, Baltimore boasts the perfect protection within the NFL since Week 11. Kyle Hamilton is a unicorn. Roquan Smith has been a top-2 linebacker for 2 years. Rookie Nate Wiggins has been pretty much as good as marketed at cornerback. And the entrance seven punches you within the face each snap, controls the road of scrimmage, and might strain you from the within or the sting.
There aren’t many flaws on this Ravens workforce. Another 12 months, they’d be the workforce to beat. However like each different 12 months, there’s the identical workforce standing of their means.
The workforce to beat
1. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Amazingly, the Chiefs received 15 video games this season. I waffled forwards and backwards between “Is that this the worst 15-win workforce of all-time” and “no person is thrashing them within the playoffs.” The latter is true now that Joe Thuney is at left deal with. Cross safety was the largest purpose for concern within the playoffs because the Chiefs cycled via rookies and journeymen earlier than their hand was pressured to maneuver Thuney.
Thuney at left deal with and Hollywood Brown makes this the perfect model of the Chiefs offense we’ve seen all season. It’s a small pattern measurement, however they scored 27 and 29 factors in opposition to two playoff opponents, and did so with out a lot resistance.
Brown and Xavier Worthy add a big-play factor that had been lacking all season. Sprinkle in DeAndre Hopkins on third downs and within the pink zone, and Travis Kelce on the six performs when Patrick Mahomes is operating for his life as Jawann Taylor avoids getting penalized, and I’m undecided who’s stopping the Chiefs.
The schedule helps. Within the divisional spherical, Kansas Metropolis faces the lowest-seed remaining. Then, they’ll get Baltimore or Buffalo, earlier than dealing with the NFC opponent. I’ll take the perfect quarterback to ever take a snap together with his full arsenal of weapons at Arrowhead Stadium.
Oh yeah, the protection.
Chris Jones led all defensive tackles in go rush wins this season. He’s the definition of a game-wrecker. George Karlaftis doesn’t get the love he deserves. He’ll make a number of performs a sport to impression the result.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will combine and match personnel till he finds what works. Spags’ blitz packages are a factor of magnificence, and I wouldn’t need anyone else calling performs as he all the time finds methods to govern the opponents go safety.
I hate to play spoiler, however the Chiefs are profitable all of it. Once more. They’re the workforce to beat and it will likely be shocking if Mahomes isn’t lifting one other Lombardi Trophy a month from now.
