After final 12 months’s disappointing follow-up to their 2023 World Sequence-winning season, the Texas Rangers jumped the primary base market in December and improved the remainder of their roster within the course of. First, on the Winter Conferences, they acquired nook infielder Jake Burger in a commerce with the Miami Marlins, a transfer that gave us certainly one of Michael Baumann’s finest headlines: “Every thing Is Burger in Texas.”
Burger’s addition made incumbent first baseman Nathaniel Lowe expendable; positive sufficient, a number of weeks after the Burger commerce, Texas despatched Lowe to the Washington Nationals for left-handed reliever Robert Garcia.
Instantly after shifting Lowe, the Rangers added some thump to their lineup with the signing of Joc Pederson to a two-year, $37 million cope with a mutual choice for a 3rd season. Altogether, the three strikes primarily perform as a two-for-one lineup swap, one that ought to present extra energy to this offense, and likewise include the bonus of fortifying their bullpen with a strong lefty who has but to achieve arbitration.
Texas was speculated to have among the best lineups in baseball final season, with lots of the identical gamers coming back from the group that gained the World Sequence. However issues didn’t go as deliberate, and the Rangers ended the season with a below-average offense (95 wRC+, twenty second within the majors). To be clear, Lowe was not the issue. His 121 wRC+ was the second-best mark on the crew. However the Rangers lacked for energy of their lineup, and two of the positions the place they may get extra slugging had been first base and DH. With Burger and Pederson changing Lowe and a DH committee that prominently featured Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski, Texas has maintained an analogous offensive flooring, however modified the form of its lineup development and manufacturing.
Pederson, a lefty slugger who performs virtually solely in opposition to righties and didn’t put on a glove final 12 months, is coming off the very best offensive season of his profession: 151 wRC+, .381 xwOBA, and .443 xwOBACON. He’s a transparent improve over Lowe and particularly the 65 wRC+ that the Rangers received from their DHs final season. One other factor that’s value mentioning: The Rangers play in the identical division because the Seattle Mariners, with their elite rotation of 5 right-handers, and the Houston Astros, with a quartet of righties following ace lefty Framber Valdez. Sure, the 2 groups most definitely to compete with the Rangers for the AL West title have only one left-handed pitcher between their two rotations. Pederson will get loads of alternatives to do what he does finest: Crush righties.
The Rangers particularly struggled in opposition to the 5 Seattle starters final season, posting a mere .262 xwOBA, and if you wish to go a bit extra in-depth, they had been even worse in opposition to pitches within the higher third of the zone from these 5 righties (.194 xwOBA). These specific pitches, higher third from righties, had been a significant weak point for the Rangers final season, even once they weren’t going through the Mariners. Their .265 xwOBA in opposition to all upper-third pitches from righties ranked twenty third in baseball. Lowe particularly had a .225 xwOBA in opposition to such pitches, and solely 20 hitters in all of baseball noticed extra of them than he did.
Pederson, in the meantime, completely torches these excessive pitches from righties. In 2024, he noticed 170 pitches within the higher third of the zone from righties, and his .466 xwOBA in opposition to these pitches was eighth highest out of the 304 hitters who noticed a minimum of 100 right-handed pitches at that location. Mainly, there aren’t many hitters who’re higher suited to assist Texas’ struggles in opposition to Seattle’s energy than Pederson. I can’t say for positive this was the Rangers’ intention for signing Pederson and buying and selling Lowe, however both means, they’re now higher ready to face Seattle and different high quality right-handed pitchers.
Total, although, Lowe is an efficient offensive participant who represents a significant improve for the Nationals. Final 12 months, Washington first basemen mixed for a 93 wRC+; throughout his 4 seasons with the Rangers, Lowe ran a 123 wRC+. His worst mark in that span? 114. Curiously, that 114 wRC+ is strictly what Steamer tasks for him in 2025, however even when he regresses to his Rangers flooring, he ought to lengthen a lineup that options the robust younger core of CJ Abrams, James Wooden, and Dylan Crews, in addition to the veteran switch-hitter Josh Bell, whom the Nationals signed to be their on a regular basis DH.
Simply to make sure about Lowe, although, let’s have a look below the hood to see what the info recommend about his efficiency during the last three seasons:
Nathaniel Lowe Efficiency
| Season | wRC+ | xwOBA | xwOBACON | SEAGER (Percentile) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 143 | .344 | .419 | 20 |
| 2023 | 117 | .339 | .386 | 85 |
| 2024 | 121 | .328 | .368 | 75 |
His method and swing selections noticed a big enchancment by SEAGER after his profession 12 months in 2022, when he hit 27 house runs, recorded a 143 wRC+, completed with 3.1 WAR, and gained a Silver Slugger. However together with that enchancment got here a lower in touch high quality. Then final 12 months, Lowe noticed traits within the unsuitable route by each xwOBACON and SEAGER. That is a little more worrying, however the drop in SEAGER didn’t have a detrimental affect on his BB%, which stayed almost even with the place it was in 2023. The better concern is his continued slide in touch high quality, and that’s value taking note of in his first 12 months with Washington. Nonetheless, except his manufacturing plunges dramatically — which appears unlikely even with the dips in touch high quality and SEAGER — the Nationals certainly shall be happy.
Garcia is becoming a member of his third main league crew simply in time for this third main league season. On August 1, 2023, the Nationals chosen him off waivers from the Marlins, for whom he appeared in simply 1/3 of an inning, and in 31 2/3 innings with Washington over the ultimate two months of that season, Garcia had a strong 3.69 ERA/3.44 FIP. He was even higher final 12 months, regardless of his 4.22 ERA, which doesn’t inform the complete story of his season. In his 59 2/3 innings throughout 72 video games, he ran a 2.38 FIP, 23.5 Okay-BB%, and 0.60 HR/9. As a lefty who depends totally on his four-seamer/changeup mixture, Garcia presents a unique look out of the Rangers bullpen. Final 12 months, he flourished with these two pitches, and the changeup allowed him to neutralize right-handed batters fairly nicely. He will get chases, whiffs, strikeouts, and groundballs, and he doesn’t stroll many batters. That’s the precise form of pitcher any crew ought to need. On high of that, he has 5 years of management left in comparison with Lowe’s two, which explains why this one-for-one swap made sense.
Lowe (and Bell) are good additions for the Nationals, however they nonetheless have extra work to do earlier than they’re able to contend. In the meantime, even with Garcia, the Rangers would most likely like so as to add a veteran reliever with closing expertise. Garcia has the expertise to be a high-leverage reliever, however they shouldn’t depend on solely him to lock down video games. Nonetheless, the Rangers are significantly better off with Burger, Pederson, and Garcia than they had been with Lowe and the three minor leaguers they traded to Miami. Total, the Rangers have a deeper, extra balanced group that they did a 12 months in the past. We’ll see if that’s sufficient to get them again to the postseason.
