Sunday, October 6, 2024

Previewing The 2024-25 MLB Free Agent Class: Heart Subject

MLBTR’s positional preview of the upcoming free agent class continues with a take a look at this winter’s skinny crop of middle fielders. It’s a bleak group, notably if the potential high identify out there forgoes a chance to choose out and return to the open market. It’s price reminding that veteran middle fielder Kevin Kiermaier has stated he plans to retire at season’s finish. Kevin Pillar has advised he’s more likely to do the identical. As such, neither is included beneath.

Participant ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2025 season. Stats are by means of play on September 23. Solely gamers who’ve appeared within the majors this yr are included.

Different Entries: Catcher | First Base | Second Base | Shortstop | Third Base

The Decide-Out Risk

Cody Bellinger (30)

Bellinger’s three-year, $80MM cope with the Cubs permits him to choose again into free company both this winter or within the 2025-26 offseason. He’s having a strong yr however has nonetheless posted lesser outcomes than in his stellar rebound marketing campaign in 2023. Bellinger has appeared in 126 video games and brought 553 turns on the plate, batting .263/.324/.425 with 18 dwelling runs in that span. He’s spent extra time at first base than in middle discipline, partially due to the emergence of high prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in middle but in addition on account of a decline in Bellinger’s personal grades there.

Bellinger is the one free agent possibility in middle who could be realistically anticipated to supply above-average offense. However his contract requires a $27.5MM wage subsequent season if he declines to choose out, with $25MM extra to return in 2026. Bellinger might very possible high the remaining two years and $50MM in assured cash on his contract however not that $27.5MM wage for subsequent season. And, since he has an opt-out provision subsequent winter with a $5MM buyout, he might get one of the best of each worlds if he stays in Chicago, bets on a extra productive 2025 marketing campaign on the plate, and opts out subsequent winter. There’s some threat and thus a case for Bellinger to choose out proper now seeking a most assure, however he’s already wager on himself twice by taking short-term offers in free company. If he desires to wager on himself as soon as extra, the trail to probably the most earnings can be to take subsequent yr’s $27.5MM, flip in a giant season, take the $5MM buyout and look to money in post-2025.

Glove-First Gamers

Harrison Bader (31)

Bader’s .241/.290/.381 batting line this season is 11% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+. He’s nonetheless smacked 12 homers and swiped 17 baggage, although these steals have are available an ugly 25 tries (68% success price). Bader has lengthy been a glove-first possibility in middle, and no less than so far as Statcast is anxious, that’s what he stays. Statcast credit him with a hefty 10 Outs Above Common due to good to nice rankings by way of dash pace (74th percentile), arm energy (87th percentile) and vary (96th percentile). Different metrics are extra bearish, with Defensive Runs Saved and Final Zone Ranking pegging him near common.

That drop in DRS isn’t going to influence Bader a lot. He has a powerful defensive popularity, and most golf equipment will take a look at the defensive instruments and his general monitor document and nonetheless depend him as a plus defender. Bader is having a greater offensive yr than he did in 2023, after which he agreed to a one-year, $10.5MM cope with the Mets. It’s attainable he might safe a multi-year deal this time round.

Enrique Hernandez (33)

Hernandez can play wherever, however middle has been his finest defensive place. He’s a plus defender there by all accounts, although the Dodgers haven’t used him there a lot this yr, as an alternative deferring to gamers with extra offensive upside (e.g. Andy Pages, James Outman). Hernandez isn’t going to land a job as somebody’s on a regular basis middle fielder after hitting .219/.272/.362 this yr, however his versatility and beloved clubhouse presence might internet him a giant league deal as a bench participant.

Michael A. Taylor (34)

Solely two gamers in baseball, no matter place, have greater than Taylor’s 55 Defensive Runs Saved over the previous 4 seasons (Ke’Bryan Hayes, Andres Gimenez). Solely 5 have a better whole of Outs Above Common (Hayes, Gimenez, Dansby Swanson, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien). Protection doesn’t get higher than this. That stated, after popping a career-high 21 homers with the 2023 Twins, Taylor was met with a frigid free agent market. He finally landed in Pittsburgh on a one-year deal and has stumbled to the worst offensive efficiency of his profession, hitting simply .193/.253/.290 in 300 plate appearances. The glove is elite, and there’s clear energy in Taylor’s bat, so he might nonetheless land one other massive league deal this offseason.

Depth Candidates

Garrett Hampson (30)

Hampson signed a $2MM cope with the Royals final winter however has turned in only a .227/.271/.300 slash with no homer in 220 plate appearances. He can run and performs strong protection everywhere in the infield and outfield, however his lack of offense will most likely restrict him to a minor league deal.

Aaron Hicks (35)

Launched by the Yankees early within the 2023 season, Hicks had a resurgence in Baltimore when he hit .275/.381/.425 in 226 plate appearances as an Oriole final yr. That landed him a giant league roster spot with the Angels, however he opened the season in a .140/.222/.193 funk (63 plate appearances) and was shortly launched. He hasn’t signed elsewhere since. If Hicks desires to maintain enjoying, he’ll have to take a minor league deal.

Travis Jankowski (34)

Jankowski gave the ’23 World Collection Champions roughly common offense and high quality glovework throughout all three outfield spots, however his bat fell flat in his 2024 return to the Rangers. He’s hit simply .209/.269/.253 by means of 99 video games and 197 plate appearances. Jankowski went unclaimed on outright waivers in late August and can be a minor league deal this winter.

Manuel Margot (32)

Twice traded within the offseason, Margot went from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles and from the Dodgers to the Twins, with each the Rays and Dodgers taking over parts of his wage alongside the way in which. Margot has hit lefties in Minnesota however hasn’t performed a lot else effectively, with an general .239/.293/.339 slash on the season. His contract has a $12MM membership possibility with a $4MM buyout, and the Rays are on the hook for that buyout underneath the phrases of his authentic commerce to Los Angeles. He’ll actually be purchased out and, like a lot of the different “depth candidates” on this listing, figures to signal a minor league deal within the offseason.

Tommy Pham (37)

Pham has little enterprise enjoying middle discipline in 2024, however the White Sox trotted him on the market for 223 innings out of necessity. He’ll be seen as an emergency possibility there by most groups. Pham is hitting .251/.311/.376 on the season — below-average manufacturing general. Pham might nonetheless land a small one-year deal or one other minor league cope with a good base wage if he plans to proceed enjoying into his age-37 season.

Austin Slater (32)

Slater has extra expertise in middle than at every other particular person place within the majors, however he attracts higher defensive scores within the outfield corners. He’s additionally performed first base for a pair hundred innings and had temporary cameos at second base and third base. Usually a menace to left-handed pitchers (profession .270/.363/.438), Slater’s output towards southpaws has tanked in 2024 (.181/.305/.224). He’s hitting solely .205/.317/.263 on the entire and can presumably be restricted to minor league provides this winter.

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