With the playoff fields in each leagues almost set, we right here at FanGraphs are turning our focus to how groups arrange for October. Jay Jaffe has been protecting the finest gamers at every place among the many contenders, in addition to the worst. Dan Szymborski seemed into the particulars of playoff lineup building. Impressed by Meg Rowley, I’m taking a distinct tack: I’m in search of the gamers, methods, and matchups that may very well be the distinction between success and failure for every staff.
We already know who the perfect gamers in baseball are, and they’re going to after all be massively vital within the postseason. However much less heralded gamers steadily have quite a bit to say about who takes residence the World Collection trophy. Suppose Steve Pearce and David Freese lengthening their respective lineups to show these offenses from good to nice, or the Braves bullpen mowing down the opposition in 2021. (On the flip facet, you don’t hear quite a bit about groups let down by their supporting casts, as a result of they principally lose early on.) One of the best gamers aren’t at all times probably the most pivotal. In that spirit, I went by every staff and centered on one potential pivot level. I seemed on the American League yesterday; immediately, the Nationwide League will get its flip.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Righty Bats vs. Righty Relievers
The Dodgers have been such a playoff fixture for the final decade that it’s straightforward for his or her groups to mix collectively. A Chris Taylor right here, a Max Muncy there, sprinkle in a heaping serving to of Clayton Kershaw’s involved face, and fairly quickly you’ve acquired a Dodgers stew going. As such, it’s straightforward to consider all of those groups as roughly the identical. They’re the Dodgers! They’ve some star hitters and a perpetually harassed pitching workers. They combine and match the underside half of the order with platoon bats and end the sport with six lineup spots having turned over.
This 12 months, that stereotype doesn’t maintain. The Dodgers have gotten away from their all-platooning methods, significantly because the 12 months wears on. Eight spots of their beginning lineup are constant no matter opponent handedness. I don’t suppose it’s a philosophical change or something; issues simply lined up this fashion. Muncy and Tommy Edman are ok that the staff doesn’t see a lot profit in swapping them out in opposition to their respective weak factors (lefties for Muncy, righties for Edman). Miguel Rojas seems to be like an apparent platoon candidate, solely there’s no lefty bat on the bench that makes for a straightforward swap.
Gavin Lux and Kevin Kiermaier are the one lefty rotational gamers on the staff (Muncy, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are on a regular basis starters, clearly, assuming every thing is okay with Freeman’s ankle). Lux will begin in opposition to righties, which signifies that Kiermaier (and Hunter Feduccia, in case of emergency) would be the solely lefty bat obtainable to play matchups. He’s simply not an impression hitter anymore, although, which signifies that Dodgers’ righties shall be taking large at-bats for themselves, even when it appears like a spot the place the staff would usually herald a pinch-hitter.
Edman may be a switch-hitter, however he persistently fares much better when batting right-handed. Opponents will flip him round in large spots and pressure him to succeed from his worse facet. Teoscar Hernández and Will Smith are steadily going to see the opposition’s finest right-handed reliever, as a result of the highest of the lineup shall be reserved for lefty arms with acceptable matchups in opposition to Ohtani and Freeman. Even Rojas might be going to get loads of platoon-negative at-bats, as a result of the choice goes to a a lot weaker defensive setup.
In prior years, the Dodgers constructed their staff round avoiding these matchups. This 12 months, they’re simply accepting the small drawback and enjoying their guys in opposition to the opponent’s guys straight up. It’s a significant change in offensive ways relative to previous years, one made as a lot out of necessity as choice. How these at-bats go can have quite a bit to say about how the staff does as an entire – except Ohtani continues to hit like a home on hearth and win video games on his personal.
Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Castellanos
I struggled a bit in choosing the most certainly Philadelphia distinction maker, however solely as a result of we’ve seen sufficient of this staff within the final two postseasons to know precisely what they’re about. They’ve a high-powered offense and a bevy of wonderful starters. Their bullpen is stuffed with high-leverage choices. Their protection? Underrated solely as a result of every thing else they’re doing is correctly heralded. The Phillies have the perfect file in baseball, the third-best Pythagorean file, and the second-best BaseRuns file. They’re a wonderful staff with few apparent flaws.
That stated, they may use a postseason breakout from Nick Castellanos, who has been borderline unplayable at factors up to now three years, and can also be able to successful a sequence singlehandedly. His type – free-swinging with large cuts – results in loads of strikeouts that really feel completely uncompetitive. Slider off the plate, fastball on the letters, slider within the dust, thanks for enjoying. However as a result of he’s taking extra residence run swings per at-bat than nearly anybody else, typically he goes on a house run tear. Prior to now month alone, he has a 10-game stretch with a 221 wRC+ and one with a 50 wRC+.
The Phillies are steadily ok to win even when Castellanos isn’t clicking. Prior to now three years, he has an combination 103 wRC+, and but they’ve been among the finest groups in baseball. However their actually white-hot stretches usually coincide with Castellanos’, as a result of he’s simply that helpful to the offense when he’s on a tear. His means to show any pitch – whether or not it’s proper down the center or three inches off the plate – into runs is uncommon outdoors of the easiest within the sport. An excellent week may flip a single sequence round. An excellent month may decide the World Collection.
Milwaukee Brewers: Outfield Protection
I’m undecided you perceive how good Milwaukee’s outfield has been this 12 months. They’re second within the majors in quite a few superior estimates of defensive worth, however that understates issues. Christian Yelich performed the primary chunk of the 12 months in left subject, and whereas he’s clearly a internet increase to the staff, that increase is on offense; he’s a below-average defender at this level in his profession. After his damage, the staff has been operating out a squad of three heart fielders: Jackson Chourio in left, a platoon of Blake Perkins and Garrett Mitchell in heart, and Sal Frelick in proper.
Every of these 4 is an elite defender. Due to the middle subject platoon, they will run out the perfect outfield protection within the playoffs even when one of many non-Chourio choices will get pinch-hit for. Line drives within the hole are simply value much less in opposition to Milwaukee, and that modifications the calculus for its pitchers considerably.
This season’s low offensive setting fits the Brewers fairly effectively. When the ball stays within the yard, they’re the staff that advantages most. Their prime pitchers all have fly ball tendencies, and why not? You’d be extra prepared to give up some aerial contact if it means giving this outfield an opportunity to make some performs.
It’s not a lot that Milwaukee’s infield protection is unhealthy. It’s fairly stable, in truth: Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang are each wonderful. However with the way in which strikeouts dominate the sport as of late, extra-base hits are the simplest solution to rating. And additional-base hits are within the air, which implies outfield vary is among the most beneficial commodities within the run prevention arms race. If the Brewers can coax a ton of balls within the air out of their opponents with out falling sufferer to a house run parade, they’ll go far.
San Diego Padres: Tanner Scott and Adrian Morejon
The Padres have assembled an incredible squad regardless of enormous turnover final winter. Buying and selling Juan Soto to pare down on wage clearly harm, and almost the complete beginning rotation departed. However by turning Soto into Michael King and Dylan Stop (not directly), and because of Jackson Merrill’s emergence, the Padres look pretty much as good as they’ve in years. They also have a deep and versatile bullpen because of A.J. Preller’s aggressive strikes on the commerce deadline.
One key to that bullpen? Its two high-leverage lefty arms. When the Padres and Dodgers confronted off this week in a playoff preview, Mike Shildt had a transparent plan: tilt his matchups to verify his staff put its finest foot ahead in opposition to Ohtani and Freeman. Tanner Scott is the backup nearer, however he’s additionally a fearsome lefty specialist, and Shildt likes to make use of him in opposition to the opponent’s finest lefty. Adrian Morejon is the subsequent man within the hierarchy, and provides Shildt flexibility to match up in opposition to his opponents’ finest lefties twice in the identical sport if essential. There’s additionally worth to swapping them round to stop opposing hitters from getting too many seems to be at them in the identical sequence.
The choice level for the Padres goes to return on the prime of the order. The Dodgers and Phillies, the 2 finest groups within the NL, stack two nice lefty hitters of their prime three batters. The Padres will doubtless use 4 righty starters, so Shildt should weigh the advantages of getting to make use of his starter for a full workload in opposition to having his finest matchups in opposition to the opposite facet’s finest batters. It’s going to return all the way down to context; if the third time by for Ohtani or Kyle Schwarber comes with the bases juiced and the rating shut, I believe it’ll be reliever time. If it’s decrease leverage, the starter will most likely keep in.
Both approach, these selections are going to be main inflection factors if the Padres make a deep playoff run. Their staff setup – all righty starters, nice lefty relievers, and a deep bullpen total – signifies that the actual query of how one can stability starter size, reliever familiarity, and high-leverage platoon matchups will come up in nearly each sport in opposition to the NL’s finest.
New York Mets: The First Large Pinch-Hitting Spot Every Recreation
The Mets have an enviable downside: too many DHs. Even with Mark Vientos enjoying third base as an alternative of a bat-only place, there’s not sufficient room for Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez to hit within the lineup on the identical time. Winker can pretend proper subject in a pinch, however the Mets appear proud of Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo within the outfield corners, which implies the one actual possibility is to platoon Winker and Martinez.
That’s annoying, as a result of it signifies that the staff nearly by no means will get to play its 9 finest place gamers on the identical time. Nevertheless it comes with a silver lining: They’ll have a starter-level bat to herald as a pinch-hitter in each sport. That may very well be Martinez blowing up an opposing supervisor’s lefty specialist in Winker’s spot, or Winker changing any variety of sketchy righties in opposition to a platoon-deficient reliever.
The Mets don’t have a very versatile lineup total. Sure, Luisangel Acuña seemed nice as a short-term Francisco Lindor alternative (assuming no re-aggravation of his damage), however he’s not a scary bat. Harrison Bader, Tyrone Taylor, Eddy Alvarez, Luis Torrens — there isn’t a number of offensive thump available off the bench. For probably the most half, the staff goes to line up its finest gamers and allow them to win or lose on their very own deserves.
That would put them at an obstacle in opposition to groups which can be capable of rework their very own groups a bit extra, giving gamers with edges of their particular matchup extra enjoying time. However for one at-bat a sport, at no matter time appears most advantageous, New York will get to flip that benefit on its head. Their means to take advantage of out of the pinch-hitting ace up their sleeve goes to swing video games, and probably sequence.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Successful From Behind
No staff in baseball has carried out higher whereas behind within the depend than the Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s partially as a result of they’re an important offense total – they’ve been the perfect group within the sport because the All-Star break – however it’s additionally due to their explicit talent. They don’t strike out. They put a ton of balls in play – they’ve the second-lowest whiff price in baseball – and chase lower than nearly anybody else.
The playoffs are a high-strikeout affair as of late. With the compression of beginning pitcher innings and the growth of power-heavy bullpens, the common pitch within the playoffs is much better than the common pitch within the common season. But when anybody’s outfitted to remain alive regardless of these robust pitches, it’s this 12 months’s Arizona squad.
If the Snakes are good whereas behind within the depend – comparatively good, after all, nobody is superior when enjoying at an obstacle – they’ll additionally be capable of faucet into the opposite factor their offense does finest: obliterate fastballs in fastball counts. They’re not probably the most aggressive swingers after they get forward, however they hunt fastballs and do injury. Solely the Mariners have carried out higher in opposition to fastballs when forward within the depend. It’s a mixture of selective aggression and energy that helps clarify why Arizona’s offense has been so good. They’re laborious to place away, and so they attempt to do injury after they get forward.
If the Diamondbacks can hold doing these two issues, their lineup goes to be a nightmare. There’s energy in all places. The eight and 9 hitters every have strikeout charges under 15%. If the staff can flip a bunch of robust counts into seeing-eye singles, they’re going to attain runs in bunches. If they will’t, their pitching workers most likely gained’t be sufficient to maintain them.
Atlanta Braves: The New Evening Shift
The Braves make the Mets appear to be a paragon of roster depth. They’ve constructed their staff round a stars-and-scrubs method, and that acquired pushed even additional with season-ending accidents to Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Austin Riley. Their offseason wager on a Jarred Kelenic breakout didn’t pan out. Their lineup is an odd mixture of castoffs and stars, with Gio Urshela and Ramón Laureano enjoying each day alongside the previous standbys of Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna. To their credit score, the fill-ins have carried out effectively thus far, however realistically, this staff isn’t an offensive juggernaut.
Atlanta’s power lies on the prime of its rotation. Chris Sale is the apparent NL Cy Younger winner. Max Fried isn’t on the peak of his powers, however he’s an important quantity two possibility. Reynaldo López has been superb all 12 months. The extra of the Braves’ playoff video games that contain a type of three guys beginning, the higher their odds shall be. That’s no knock on Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, however with a makeshift offense, each little little bit of pitching enchancment helps, and attending to cowl extra innings with Sale is pretty much as good because it will get on that entrance.
To make the equation work, the Braves must emulate themselves from 2021 and empty the bullpen of its finest arms each time they’ve a lead. En path to their 2021 championship, the Braves used Luke Jackson, Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, and A.J. Minter in almost each victory. This 12 months’s model can be Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, and a lefty (both Aaron Bummer or Dylan Lee).
All of those guys have been wonderful this 12 months. The entire bullpen has been wonderful, in truth, to the tune of an combination 3.30 ERA. They’ll need to proceed that kind. Something can occur in a month’s value of baseball video games, however Atlanta’s offense merely doesn’t look pretty much as good as most of their NL competitors. But when Brian Snitker can coax three-ish scoreless innings out of his prime relievers in each shut sport, the equation seems to be quite a bit higher. Do it proper (and make it into the playoffs to start with, after all), and there may be one other World Collection ring in his future. Fail, and there may be a number of shootouts within the staff’s future. They don’t look effectively outfitted to win these, to say the least.
