Key Highlights
- Throughout the second spherical of the playoffs, the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder held a plus-5.3 internet score with Chet Holmgren on the ground and a minus-15.0 internet score when he was on the bench
- The Thunder completed twenty seventh in offensive rebounding charge final season, whereas Isaiah Hartenstein ranked within the 92nd percentile individually
- Hartenstein was within the seventieth percentile in help charge amongst massive males, per Cleansing the Glass
Apart from their top-three offense torpedoing right into a crunched-up slog, the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder’s playoff demise was headlined by an incapability to remain float at any time when Chet Holmgren sat. Throughout their second-round, six-game defeat, they outscored the Dallas Mavericks by 21 factors throughout Holmgren’s 216 minutes and had been outscored by 21 factors in 72 minutes with out him (-20.3 internet score swing, per NBA.com).
So, as soon as free company commenced earlier this month, they sought to handle that deficiency at backup 5 by touchdown Isaiah Hartenstein on a three-year, $87 million deal (staff possibility for the third yr). But Hartenstein’s hefty price ticket and 2023-24 emergence — following many seasons of intriguing play in a smaller function — proved he’s far too good for merely that designation.
Occupying a beginning gig for many of final season whereas sitting central to the New York Knicks’ success, his protection, playmaking, screening and rebounding established him among the many league’s higher facilities. In fact, he isn’t superior to Holmgren, an ascending 22-year-old who seems imminently primed for stardom. But when afforded sufficient rope, the 26-year-old may help significantly treatment a few of Oklahoma Metropolis’s different shortcomings, together with rebounding, screening and three-point quantity.
His arrival ensures the Thunder experience 48 minutes of high-level middle play. Hardly ever will considered one of Holmgren or Hartenstein not be on the ground. His arrival must also assure a spot within the beginning 5.
Both Luguentz Dort or Alex Caruso would come off the bench. Though Caruso is the higher participant, his damage historical past and Dort’s reference to the franchise will probably earn him the nod at capturing guard. The playoffs are the precedence, so protecting Caruso upright have to be the target. There will probably be matchups the place downsizing is most well-liked, however the baseline quintet ideally options Holmgren and Hartenstein collectively. It’s the best path to fixing weak hyperlinks that cropped up for the Thunder in sure common season video games and versus Dallas.
One of many elements defining Oklahoma Metropolis’s second-round foibles was its poor on-ball passing. It is a superb connective passing staff, however with Dallas loading the strong-side and zoning up correctly on the weak-side, it couldn’t flip the ground to use that tactic. Drive-and-kick is about spinning the protection into rotation and the Thunder failed to attain that, partly due to their passing limitations.
Neither Shai Gilgeous-Alexander nor Jalen Williams had the gusto to weave passes round all the scale the Mavericks threw their path. Holmgren, for all his two-way exploits, will not be a sturdy inside-the-arc operator who capabilities as a playmaking hub. Hartenstein does.
Based on Cleansing the Glass, he positioned within the seventieth percentile in help charge amongst bigs final season (12.7 %) and his 7-foot-1 stature is a real software. It permits him to see excessive and execute reads that the Thunder’s perimeter initiators typically uncared for in spherical two. They’ve missed this kind of path to pivot towards offensively. Hartenstein will current it.
Enjoying by way of him would require a shift away from Oklahoma Metropolis’s drive-and-kick, five-out method. Even when the five-out ethos is sustained, there can be an adjustment to present a non-spacing risk substantial obligations. The idea of its assault final season was emphasizing touches for dribble-pass-shoot dudes and surrounding them with succesful drive-and-shoot cogs (Josh Giddey apart, therefore his playoff benching and subsequent departure).
Hartenstein is a savvy facilitator with extra off-the-dribble juice than assumed, but he’s not an out of doors shooter or a driving massive like Holmgren. Slotting him at middle would transfer Holmgren to the 4 and rearrange his offensive utilization and placement. Lengthy-term, the purpose is presumably to maintain Holmgren at middle, however letting him develop his mismatch scoring towards 4s somewhat than 5s — given his power deficit — may work within the interim, too.
Spotlighting a 7-footer with playmaking verve might assist enhance the Thunder’s lengthy vary quantity. Regardless of being third in three-point share, they had been simply twenty first in three-point charge. There was cumbersome hesitancy with their shooters. A lot of them had been wired to drive off the catch somewhat than firing — specifically, Williams and Aaron Wiggins — that Dallas acknowledged and focused. The odds portrayed them as an elite capturing group, whereas the movie instructed in any other case.
A tweak in mindset is important. Hartenstein’s passing potential and luxury flipping the courtroom at his dimension needs to be boons, however they aren’t wholesale options. The shooters must embrace bombing away extra recurrently; their numbers are too good for in any other case.
His distributing nonetheless offers a distinct, welcomed wrinkle. Final yr’s five-out alignment masked playmaking deficiencies. Hartenstein isn’t only a tall man with a little bit of deft contact. He’s a legit passer in numerous kinds. Oklahoma Metropolis sports activities shrewd cutters. Faucet into that extra. Encourage them to chop and obtain feeds from Hartenstein somewhat than solely to spark threes or snare passes from slashing ball-handlers.
It additionally dabbled with dunker spot utilization within the playoffs. Hartenstein is a superb dump-off passer. Enjoying him on the 5 and Holmgren as a 4 periodically lurking within the brief corners may diversify the offense. Maybe, his addition doesn’t alter the three-point quantity as a lot because it creates extra possibilities across the basket (sixteenth in rim frequency through the common season, thirteenth within the playoffs). Both prevalence sounds profitable.
Hartenstein isn’t a Nikola Jokic-level orchestrator. Gilgeous-Alexander is among the many NBA’s chief engines. He, together with Williams, will dominate the motion. There’s going to loads of time Hartenstein operates off the ball. It’s one other adjustment that (rightfully) granting him important minutes will immediate: crafting easy offense with a non-shooting middle enjoying heavy minutes. Even when he will get again to experimenting a bit as a stretch massive, really garnering defensive consideration takes time and outcomes (he’s 27-of-87, 31 % in six seasons).
However the lack of capturing doesn’t render him an off-ball legal responsibility. Routinely discovering area out and in of the paint, he’s an alert mover. Whether or not it’s producing open photographs for himself or others, there are penalties of ignoring him or extending him room/angles to make use of. The Knicks often slotted him within the reverse nook, which baited defenses into sagging off earlier than the offense flung the ball his manner and initiated dribble handoffs. I particularly like this for Oklahoma Metropolis if Isaiah Joe is the recipient.
On and off the ball, there are a viable assortment of expertise he presents that make it troublesome to punish his minimal scoring arsenal by guarding him 4-on-5. He’ll display, he’ll transfer, he’ll drive, he’ll go. All of it could ease the assimilation for each himself and the Thunder, and be parts of the offense at any time when he’s not the focus.
Readily obvious through the second spherical was Oklahoma Metropolis’s want for a superb screen-setter. It’s not considered one of Holmgren’s standout attributes. That left the creation burden squarely on Gilgeous-Alexander’s shoulders towards a rangy, linked protection and congested paint. Williams was not ready to successfully pilot offense in that collection both. Hartenstein ought to simplify life for everybody along with his burly, perceptive screening, cognizant of when to implement contact and when to slide.
Based on NBA.com, he was 14th in display assists per recreation through the common season (3.5) and third through the playoffs (5.1). He’s a hulking impediment who holds agency or audibles the angle based mostly on no matter’s wanted most. He’ll spring free off-ball shooters and ignite alternatives in pick-and-rolls.
It’s one other trait of his that might increase the Thunder’s three-point numbers if he’s producing separation for his or her bevy of shooters with pindowns, flares and on-ball screens. Perhaps, his off-ball picks are a decoy at instances, opening drives for Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams to grease the offense. An elite screener surrounded by a dynamite offensive expertise, a slippery secondary handler, and bountiful capturing is a devious weapon.
Whereas some screeners of Hartenstein’s caliber are brief on a lot offensive utility — which hamstrings their minutes and utilization — Hartenstein isn’t. His involvement doesn’t must pause after the display. His playmaking is at all times there towards traps or overloaded defenses. He’s a launch valve scorer along with his floater. Based on Cleansing the Glass, he ranked within the 89th percentile from brief midrange final season, changing 54 % of his appears to be like; over the 2 prior years, he hit 52 % of them.
It’s a pesky little shot, each out of ball screens or relocating from the dunker spot throughout paint touches. Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams (to a lesser extent) are methodical handlers who personal a penchant for the midrange. Their latest middle enhances that fashion.
If utilized keenly, he can lead the cost in blotting out a lot of Oklahoma Metropolis’s weaknesses. His offensive rebounding is probably his foremost ability. He’s completed within the 89th percentile or higher the previous two seasons, whereas the Thunder had been twenty seventh amongst 30 groups in 2023-24.
Their aversion to second possibilities is a byproduct of sprawling transition protection (third in lowest opposing frequency final yr). However Hartenstein touts an actual knack for the ball and will lug them up from the pits with out ushering in systemic change.
That acumen may deter groups from switching or stashing smaller defenders on Hartenstein in an purpose to allocate their dimension elsewhere. The Mavericks pinned lesser defenders on Holmgren within the second spherical as a result of he couldn’t punish them. Hartenstein isn’t an adept scorer, however he’s a dominant offensive rebounder. That will solely be amplified going through mismatches. His one-man clean-up crew will behoove a downhill-determined staff that led the league in drives per recreation by a large margin final season (452 greater than second place).
He’s dependable patrolling the opposite aspect of the glass too, putting among the many 61st percentile or higher in defensive rebounding charge the final two seasons. Oklahoma Metropolis was twenty ninth general in 2023-24. Hartenstein will buoy that rank, together with all the protection.
He and Holmgren had been two of the league’s more practical rim protectors final season. Based on NBA.com, opposing gamers shot 11.4 % under their common on discipline objectives inside 6 toes when Holmgren was the closest defender. When it was Hartenstein, they shot 11.2 % worse. These marks ranked sixth and seventh amongst 157 gamers who contested not less than 4 such photographs per recreation. One or each of them goes to be on the ground nearly on a regular basis subsequent yr!
Holmgren has cemented himself as a premier 1-on-2 defender in drop protection, able to dancing between ball-handler and curler. Hartenstein is an excellent ball-screen defender as properly, most harmful enjoying close to the extent or in excessive drop. He’s mild on his toes, a looming inside deterrent and wields extraordinarily dexterous palms.
The choice to tab both as the first massive defender whereas the opposite stays low ought to promote versatility and aggression. Oklahoma Metropolis already led the league in opposing turnover charge final yr and may actually distance itself after bringing in Hartenstein and Caruso. Hartenstein completed within the ninetieth percentile in steal charge and 74th percentile in block charge. He’s comfy on the perimeter and in area off the ball, and excels as a defensive anchor.
Holmgren seeing prolonged minutes on the 4 will necessitate a studying curve. There are completely different defensive obligations. The burgeoning expertise league-wide amongst 4s may drive him into extra on-ball perimeter duties than conventional massive man duties. But the enchantment and prospects alongside Hartenstein appear so intriguing.
Final yr, there was no strategy to deviate and play massive for lengthy spurts. Now, they will. It ought to turn into much less of another and extra of the norm. Their expertise, malleability and ceiling have elevated. They may rebound and shield the rim higher, whereas nonetheless turning groups over at an absurd charge. They renovated snazzy components of the boat and plugged a leak.
The perimeter group of Caruso, Dort, Williams, Wiggins, Joe, Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace is stout sufficient to insulate whichever massive is low. Pre-switch most actions. Stash the supersized 4 on the creakiest offensive participant. Allow a roamer. Particular opponents won’t have a obvious gap (a la the reigning champion Boston Celtics), however that dimension and defensive impression continues to be irritating. Hartenstein’s rebounding and low man prowess may imply he’s finest suited to the job. Maintaining Holmgren in ball-screens defensively isn’t a problem anyway.
Final season, the Thunder’s abundance of perimeter expertise got here on the expense of dimension. Often, that’s related to defensive concessions. For them, although, these concessions primarily manifested offensively. Hartenstein maintains the theme of ball expertise, whereas instilling essential, newfound components along with his body.
Having fun with the advantages of his signing is simple. He’ll again up Holmgren and play 15-18 superior minutes nightly. Maximizing his signing calls for extra — much less of any grand overhaul and extra a few versatile id.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams ceding a little bit of management on the ball. Extra time for Hartenstein to facilitate the offense. Extra rolling somewhat than popping in ball-screens. Extra horizontal motion, dribble handoffs and off-ball screens. Holmgren navigating life as a 4. Credible shooters excising timidity from their line of considering.
This roster is as much as the duty. Among the basis exists from Jaylin Williams‘ offensive utilization final season. The Thunder will probably be super regardless of how Hartenstein is carried out. He and they’re adequate. However they are often far more than their 2023-24 selves if everybody aces this pairing. That’s the place the true problem resides, and what’s most essential shifting ahead.
