The Phillies are reportedly including outfielder Max Kepler on a one-year, $10MM contract. The settlement is pending a bodily and has not been introduced by the crew. Philadelphia has a gap on the 40-man roster and won’t must make a corresponding transfer. Kepler is represented by VC Sports activities Group.
Kepler modifications uniforms for the primary time in his profession. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota group. He signed with the Twins as a teen and reached the massive leagues late within the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in elements of 10 large league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching past the six-year management window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.
For many of that run, Kepler was an above-average proper fielder. He seemed as if he would possibly on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer displaying in 2019, however that proved to be an outlier in a season that was performed with the juiced ball. Exterior of that yr, Kepler has usually been a 15-20 homer menace with first rate on-base expertise.
Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled accidents in each knees and solely appeared in 105 video games. Kepler was restricted to a career-low eight dwelling runs whereas posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line throughout 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the ability. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base share within the course of.
The Phillies are hoping {that a} wholesome offseason might permit him to return to his prior kind. Kepler had one among his greatest years as not too long ago as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his profession) throughout 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set private highs in common exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and laborious contact share (47.6%). His laborious contact charge dropped by 11 factors this yr, suggesting that he was taking part in at lower than full power.
A lot of Kepler’s diminished manufacturing got here late within the season. He carried a league common .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 within the second half. The Twins resisted placing him on the IL for some time as they tried to hold onto a Wild Card berth, however his numbers tanked up to now in August that he needed to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a doable postseason push.
Whereas it ended on a down be aware, Kepler had a productive run within the Twin Cities. He appeared in additional than 1000 video games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and simply over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t a lot doubt that Minnesota would go in one other course this offseason, although. Possession isn’t giving the entrance workplace a lot monetary leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was by no means within the playing cards.
At his peak, Kepler was one of many sport’s greatest defensive proper fielders. If not for sharing the Goal Subject outfield with Byron Buxton, he in all probability would’ve gotten extra constant run in middle subject early in his profession. Kepler’s defensive grades are nonetheless strong however not as robust as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league common proper fielder in a bit over 800 innings this previous season. Statcast credited him with two runs above common.
Higher well being might assist him rebound on protection as nicely. Kepler fell under league common in Statcast’s dash velocity measurement for the primary time. That’s not a shock contemplating he was taking part in via knee ache. On each side of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this yr was a health-related blip slightly than the signal of a pointy decline in his early 30s.
Kepler figures to play principally left subject at Residents Financial institution Park. That’s a place he’s by no means performed within the majors, although most proper fielders can kick over to the alternative nook with out a lot situation. Kepler hasn’t began a recreation in middle subject since 2021, so he’s in all probability not more than an emergency possibility there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are every likelier to deal with middle subject work.
Whereas there shouldn’t be a lot situation concerning the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him one thing of an odd match. The Phils had sought to discover a rotational outfielder who might reduce into the taking part in time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been probably the most simple answer, permitting the Phils to defend Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would tackle that as a deadline pickup, however he spent most of his tenure on the injured listing and was non-tendered final month.
Kepler doesn’t match that want. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s a lot better towards righties. Kepler has a profession .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in additional than 1000 plate appearances towards southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d in all probability pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in middle subject. That’d put the onus on Kepler to remain wholesome sufficient to play repeatedly in left subject.
Marsh might at all times transfer again to left if Kepler lands on the IL, but that’d go away the Phillies with the identical middling outfield upon which they’re making an attempt to improve. They’d actually love to dump the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which might allow them to place Kepler in proper subject and add one other outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos cash is way simpler stated than finished after he hit .254/.311/.431 this yr.
It appears the Phils most well-liked the worth level on Kepler over the asking worth for the highest righty-hitting outfielders out there. Matt Gelb of the Athletic experiences that Philadelphia had proven curiosity in Teoscar Hernández however apparently balked on the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was searching for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.
Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ wage commitments to roughly $280MM, in line with the RosterResource calculations. They’re as much as $299MM in aggressive steadiness tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT quantity already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, in order that they’re topic to the best set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, that means they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM total dedication on possession’s half.
As soon as they transcend the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed on the most 110% charge on additional spending. The Phillies have been a digital lock to exceed the third tier no matter whether or not they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their high draft alternative in 2026 by ten spots (until they miss the playoffs and draw into the highest six within the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year offers addresses two of their largest questions on comparatively reasonably priced phrases.
Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies have been progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the settlement and reported the $10MM wage. Picture courtesy of Imagn.
