Based on Sports activities Illustrated’s Tom Verducci, the Phillies have expressed curiosity in signing free agent starter Patrick Sandoval. Verducci additionally notes the Phillies aren’t alone in contemplating the left-hander, although he doesn’t title another groups which may have checked in.
Sandoval, 28, was considerably surprisingly non-tendered by the Angels earlier this offseason. The southpaw was projected to earn $5.9MM subsequent 12 months in his second season of arbitration eligibility. The Angels seemingly determined that was an excessive amount of to pay for an arm who won’t pitch for many (if not all) of the 2025 marketing campaign; he underwent Tommy John surgical procedure this previous June. Nevertheless, if Sandoval can not pitch in 2025, he’d seemingly earn an an identical $5.9MM wage in 2026. That’s a complete of $11.8MM over each seasons. If he comes again wholesome in 2026 and pitches something like he has over the previous 4 years, $11.8MM would nonetheless be a wonderful worth for his providers.
From 2021-24, Sandoval threw 460 innings for the Angels, pitching to a 3.80 ERA and 4.35 SIERA. His 5.08 ERA over 16 begins in 2024 was ugly, however his 4.26 SIERA suggests he was the sufferer of some dangerous luck, as does his excessive BABIP (.341) and low strand price (66.2%). Based on FanGraphs, Sandoval has been value 8.8 Wins Above Substitute during the last 4 seasons, together with 1.2 WAR in 16 begins this previous 12 months. That’s a median of two.9 WAR per 150 innings pitched. That sort of manufacturing goes for rather more than $11.8MM on the open market.
Nonetheless, the Angels determined to not commit themselves to Sandoval, liberating him as much as signal elsewhere as a free agent. He’s seemingly on the lookout for a backloaded two-year pact that will enable him to rehab along with his new group in 2025 and hopefully pitch a full, wholesome season in 2026. A superb comparability is the two-year, $22MM contract Tyler Mahle signed with the Rangers final winter. He earned $5.5MM within the first 12 months of the deal and can earn $16.5MM within the second. Like Sandoval, Mahle was rehabbing from Tommy John and unlikely to pitch for many of 2024. What’s extra, Mahle had thrown 503 2/3 innings with a 4.22 ERA and three.93 SIERA within the 5 seasons previous his TJS, very related numbers to Sandoval’s. Mahle had his surgical procedure a month and a half earlier within the season than Sandoval did – early Could versus late June – which meant he was extra more likely to pitch in at the very least a part of the primary 12 months of his deal. Which may have given Mahle barely extra incomes potential than Sandoval has proper now. Nonetheless, it’s a helpful level of comparability to estimate Sandoval’s worth on the open market.
It’s simple to see why the Phillies would really like the thought of a backloaded contract that retains prices low subsequent season. Their projected payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource) is at present $271MM, greater than $20MM increased than final 12 months’s last tally. Nevertheless, they’ve a number of contracts coming off the books subsequent winter. J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Jordan Romano, and Ranger Suárez shall be free brokers after this coming season, probably liberating up greater than $60MM in payroll. That will make it simpler for Philadelphia to pay Sandoval a better wage within the second 12 months of his theoretical deal.
Talking of Suárez, the Phillies might be eyeing Sandoval as a possible substitute if the previous leaves in free company earlier than the 2026 marketing campaign. Like Suárez, Sandoval is a left-hander with a deep arsenal of pitches. Suárez has been a key contributor for Philadelphia over the previous 4 years, and he’s been barely extra productive than Sandoval. In 537 innings, he has a 3.27 ERA, 3.92 SIERA, and 11.2 fWAR. But, with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sánchez already underneath contract for a number of extra years and high prospect Andrew Painter nearing his debut, the Phillies won’t be desirous about retaining Suárez round long-term. Sandoval might symbolize an intriguing, and cheaper, various.
