Final week, it was reported by Matt Gelb of The Athletic that the Phils had been giving some thought to buying and selling outfielder Nick Castellanos, infielder Alec Bohm, prospect Justin Crawford or left-hander Ranger Suárez as they appear to shake up their roster. Right this moment, Bob Nightengale of USA Right this moment studies alongside related traces, noting that the membership is making Bohm accessible and is anticipated to look to free brokers Alex Bregman or Willy Adames in the event that they achieve buying and selling Bohm.
Because the Phils look to make some adjustments, they solely have so many avenues. A lot of their place gamers are costly veterans who’re entrenched on the roster, both resulting from their efficiency, their contracts or each.
Bohm, however, remains to be in his arbitration years, slated without spending a dime company after 2026. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz tasks him for a wage of $8.1MM subsequent yr and Bohm could be due one other increase for 2026.
On high of that, his efficiency has been extra good than nice. So far in his profession, he has a batting line of .277/.327/.416. That interprets to a 103 wRC+, indicating he’s been 3% higher than the league common hitter. He did have a 115 wRC+ in 2024, however in lopsided trend, with a 128 within the first half and a 90 within the second. Additionally, most of his harm has been carried out with the platoon benefit. He has a profession 135 wRC+ in opposition to lefties in his profession however a subpar 91 wRC+ in opposition to righties.
Defensively, he hasn’t been nice total, although he has proven indicators of enchancment. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of -46 over the primary 4 years of his profession however then had him at league common in 2024. Outs Above Common had Bohm in unfavorable territory from 2020 to 2022 however barely higher than par up to now two years.
Total, he’s been a helpful participant however one thing beneath a star, and both Bregman or Adames could possibly be seen as a transparent improve. Bregman has hit .272/.366/.483 in his profession for a 135 wRC+ and has been a thought-about a powerful defender at third base in addition. Adames has hit .248/.322/.444 for a 109 wRC+ in his profession whereas offering robust shortstop protection, however he’s reportedly prepared to maneuver to different infield positions. Most shortstops are able to transferring to different spots on the infield pretty easily, so it’s doable the Phils would anticipate Adames to offer higher glovework than Bohm, though it will be a brand new place for him.
Enacting these strikes would have issues. Bohm’s modest projected wage is way lower than what Bregman or Adames are prone to earn on their respective contracts. MLBTR predicted Bregman for $182MM and Adames for $160MM over six years, each for common annual values within the $26-27MM vary.
The payroll could possibly be a notable story for the Phils this offseason. Chairman John Middleton has stated he expects payroll to go up nevertheless it already has, in a approach. RosterResource tasks the membership for a payroll of $263MM subsequent yr, which is $15MM greater than 2024 earlier than they’ve even made any strikes.
Their $282MM aggressive stability tax quantity is already projected to be above the third tier of penalization. As a third-time payor, which means they’re already taking a look at a 95% tax on any cash they add as much as the ultimate line of $301MM. Something they add past that line would have a 110% tax price.
Swapping in Bregman or Adames for Bohm would make these numbers go up nevertheless it appears the Phils have not less than some hope of constructing up the distinction elsewhere. Nightengale notes that they’ve tried to make use of Bohm and Crawford to pry Garrett Crochet free from the White Sox. Crochet had a large breakout in 2024, tossing 146 innings with a 3.58 earned run common, 35.1% strikeout price, 5.5% stroll price and 45.1% floor ball price.
That efficiency will make Crochet very fashionable on the commerce market, however so will his wage. Since he spent the early components of his profession both injured or understanding of the bullpen, he’s solely projected for a $2.9MM wage in 2025, with another arb go after that. The Phils have a powerful rotation with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Suárez and Taijuan Walker, however Walker has fallen out of favor with the membership, getting kicked to the bullpen for a time in 2024. Andrew Painter could possibly be a think about 2025 however he’s a giant unknown since he nonetheless hasn’t made his main league debut and is getting back from an extended Tommy John surgical procedure layoff.
It will clearly be an exquisite sequence of chess strikes if the Phillies might use Bohm so as to add an affordable ace to their rotation, maybe discovering a solution to unload the 2 years and $36MM left on Walker’s contract, after which use the associated fee financial savings to get a star like Bregman or Adames to switch Bohm at third.
Nonetheless, doing all of that will require the settlement of different groups. Bohm’s commerce worth gained’t be that top on account of his aforementioned deficiencies. Nightengale provides that the Sox are anxious by Bohm’s efficiency within the second half of 2024. He additionally wouldn’t have a lot worth to the Sox anyway, since his management window is so brief. After Chicago’s record-breaking loss tally in 2024, it’s arduous to examine them return to competition in Bohm’s two remaining years of membership management. The Phils may need to incorporate some extra prospect expertise to get a deal carried out, which they may not need to do proper now, given how a lot of the roster is stuffed with costly veterans.
A far easier end result for Bregman would simply be to re-sign with the Astros, the place he has spent his complete profession up to now. It’s a far easier match and the 2 sides seemingly have had mutual curiosity in signing a brand new deal for years, however nothing has come collectively to date.
It appears there is perhaps a little bit of a spot when it comes to the financials, with Nightengale reporting that Houston desires Bregman again on a deal of about $156MM over six years however Bregman is seeking to get to the $200MM line. Jon Heyman of The New York Publish reported final week that the Astros have made a proposal to Bregman. It’s unknown what they placed on the desk however the truth that he hasn’t but accepted it means that it wasn’t as much as his expectations. Basic supervisor Dana Brown has urged the membership would possibly must be artistic with the price range this offseason however proprietor Jim Crane has urged there’s cash accessible for the fitting gamers and all indicators have pointed to Bregman being the membership’s highest precedence.
Bregman has additionally been related to the Tigers and Pink Sox up to now week, with the latter membership contemplating a transfer to first base for Rafael Devers, so as to accommodate Bregman. Adames has additionally been related to the Pink Sox, along with the Astros, Atlanta, Blue Jays and Giants. Each gamers rejected qualifying provides and could be topic to related penalties, until they re-sign with their respective 2024 golf equipment.
For the Phils, since they paid the CBT in 2024, they must forfeit $1MM of worldwide bonus pool area in addition to their second- and fifth-best picks within the upcoming draft in the event that they signal a participant that rejected a qualifying provide. The Astros wouldn’t forfeit something, aside from the compensation choose they stand to obtain if Bregman goes elsewhere, which might come after the fourth spherical of the upcoming draft.
