I believe numerous us overestimate the importance of geography when predicting the place free brokers will signal. In Max Kepler’s case, nevertheless, all of us might need underestimated the position geography would play in his choice. Maybe it was inevitable that the best German-born participant in MLB historical past would head to the state with the best German inhabitants within the nation. Lo and behold, on December 19, the all-time chief in runs, house runs, RBI, and WAR amongst Deutschland natives agreed to a one-year, $10 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
But, other than serving to the Phillies pander to their followers in Germantown, it’s a bit troublesome to see how Kepler suits this group. Coming into the offseason, many anticipated Philadelphia would pursue a right-handed batter to play left subject who might cut up taking part in time with Brandon Marsh. As a substitute, they signed Kepler, who bats lefty and hasn’t performed left subject since his days at Double-A in 2015. What’s extra, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made it clear the Phillies plan to make use of Kepler as an on a regular basis participant, even if accidents have stored him from taking part in greater than 130 video games in a full season since 2019.
Kepler’s restricted expertise in left subject is the least regarding side of all this. Whether or not you have a look at OAA, FRV, DRS, or Baseball Prospectus’s DRP, Kepler has by no means been a below-average outfield defender in any season of his profession. His sturdy observe report with no consideration fielder, and his previous expertise in heart, ought to assist him regulate to left. Moreover, Kepler may profit from taking part in a place the place throwing isn’t fairly as essential. Though his arm energy constantly ranks above the league common, he has been price -3 throwing runs in his profession, in line with Baseball Savant.
Even when it received’t be a serious adjustment, it’s not nothing for the Phillies to ask Kepler to re-learn a place after virtually 10 years away. It makes me consider the film line I quote extra usually than every other. In Moneyball, when Billy Beane tries to persuade catcher Scott Hatteberg that he can play first base, Beane asks Ron Washington to inform Hatteberg that’s it not that arduous. “It’s extremely arduous,” Washington replies.
Transferring from proper to left subject is doable for {most professional} baseball gamers. It’s so doable that numerous them make it look easy. However in fact, it’s not. Kepler must regulate to the methods the ball comes off the bat, the methods it bounces off the wall, and the methods he’ll have to show to make all his vital throws. He’ll even have to do this whereas making an attempt to not re-aggravate the knee and hip points which have bothered him the final two years. Dombrowski says Kepler thinks it will likely be “a straightforward adjustment.” Maybe he’s proper. Maybe his pure abilities will counterbalance his lack of expertise. Nonetheless, it’s one small cause why Kepler isn’t an ideal match for this roster.
Finally, Kepler will in all probability deal with left subject simply advantageous. The larger query is that if he’ll be capable to deal with left-handed pitching. His profession splits are so poor as to make you scratch your head and surprise how the Twins might have probably watched him play for a decade and by no means platooned him. Greater than 1 / 4 (25.4%) of his profession plate appearances have come in opposition to southpaws; since Kepler’s debut season in 2015, the common lefty batter has taken solely 18.5% of his hacks with out the platoon benefit. This is able to be comprehensible if Kepler have been higher than common in opposition to lefties, besides, in fact, he’s not. When dealing with righties, Kepler has a profession 111 wRC+. Towards southpaws, that quantity falls to 78. Over the previous 10 years, he’s one among 100 gamers to take no less than 1,000 plate appearances in opposition to left-handed pitchers. He ranks among the many backside three in all three triple-slash classes. His wRC+ ranks second to final – lower than half a share level higher than former Phillie Freddy Galvis.
That’s not supreme for the Phillies, who have already got two key gamers they don’t belief in opposition to left-handed pitching: Marsh and Bryson Stott. Neither was efficient in opposition to lefties in 2024, and there isn’t a lot cause to hope for enchancment; ZiPS tasks every of them for a .675 OPS in opposition to southpaws in 2025. Furthermore, Philadelphia’s two greatest hitters, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, are additionally lefty bats. You’d suppose this group could be in search of a right-handed hitter to steadiness issues out. As a substitute, they quintupled down with Kepler.
Having stated that, I concede there could be a way behind Dombrowski’s insanity. Regardless of a lineup that skewed left-handed, the Phillies ranked third within the majors with a 118 wRC+ in opposition to left-handed pitchers in 2024. In distinction, their 104 wRC+ in opposition to right-handed pitchers ranked thirteenth. Anticipated wOBA paints an identical image; the Phillies had the third-best offense in opposition to lefties and solely the Twelfth-best lineup in opposition to righties. That’s largely as a result of all 4 of Philadelphia’s most essential righty batters – Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto – had noticeable platoon splits in 2024. With that in thoughts, including a bat like Kepler makes much more sense. It’s nonetheless truthful to fret that this lineup is just too lopsided. A dominant left-hander might are available in and shut them down. But, over the course of a protracted season, Kepler may truly carry extra steadiness, not much less, to the Phillies offense.
It’s additionally price mentioning that Kepler has stored his head above water in opposition to lefties over the previous few years. He has a 102 wRC+ throughout 298 plate appearances in opposition to same-handed pitchers from 2022-24. His .310 xwOBA in that point is correct consistent with his .312 wOBA. After all, 298 PA aren’t numerous information to work with. It’s such a small pattern that should you return yet another 12 months and have a look at his numbers in opposition to lefties from 2021-24, his wRC+ drops to 85. Thus, we’re confronted with the age-old query that continues to flummox baseball prognosticators: How closely ought to we weigh newer efficiency in a smaller pattern measurement in comparison with much less current efficiency in a bigger pattern measurement? Shade me skeptical that Kepler has made his platoon woes disappear. The Phillies, nevertheless, appear to suppose he can maintain his personal irrespective of who’s on the mound.
To that time, the Phillies additionally appear to suppose that Kepler might be extra productive total in 2025 than he was final 12 months. Chatting with the media after signing Kepler, Dombrowski emphasised that the veteran outfielder was coming off a down 12 months. But, it’s debatable how true that actually is. Kepler’s 94 wRC+ in 2024 was a step down from his profession 102 wRC+ and an enormous step down from his 123 wRC+ in 2023. Nevertheless, his 97 wRC+ in 2021 and 94 wRC+ in 2022 counsel that his true expertise stage at this level in his profession is nearer to what we noticed in his mediocre 2024 season than in his wonderful 2023 marketing campaign. Kepler’s defensive numbers have been additionally down in 2024, however that’s a pattern that started the 12 months earlier than. You could possibly name that two defensive down years in a row, or you would admit that it’s in all probability an age-related decline.
Steamer envisions a slight uptick in Kepler’s offensive efficiency in 2025, projecting a 101 wRC+. Curiously, Steamer foresees higher total numbers for Kepler regardless of a big lower in his BABIP. The system appears to acknowledge that his stroll price and energy numbers have been unusually low in 2024 and expects some constructive regression in each areas. Sadly, Steamer additionally believes within the pattern of his declining defensive skills. Thus, Kepler’s 1.1 WAR projection, utilizing the taking part in time estimates from our Depth Charts, represents a step again from his manufacturing this previous 12 months. He completed with 1.0 WAR in 2024, however that was in 105 fewer plate appearances than our Depth Charts have him taking in 2025. A one-win position participant remains to be beneficial, and including such a participant on a one-year, $10 million contract is a wonderfully cheap funding. Nonetheless, the purpose stands that Kepler simply isn’t an incredible match for the on a regular basis position the Phillies are asking him to play.
Lastly, there’s the query of whether or not or not Kepler’s physique may even deal with taking part in daily. He has hung out on the injured checklist in every of the previous 5 seasons. He hasn’t certified for the batting title since 2019. Even in his youthful years, when he had higher luck avoiding the IL, he handled no less than one harm concern or one other annually. The “accidents” part on his Baseball Prospectus participant web page has no less than one entry for each season courting again to 2014.
In 2024, Kepler missed time early within the 12 months with a proper knee contusion earlier than touchdown on the IL once more in September with patellar tendinitis in his left knee. He has beforehand handled patellar tendinitis in his proper knee, too. On prime of that, his hip started to trouble him whereas he was making an attempt to return from the left knee harm, and that’s what in the end prevented him from coming again earlier than the season was up. As if that weren’t sufficient, Kepler was additionally taking part in via a core harm that required offseason surgical procedure. The Phillies appear to suppose he’ll be again at 100% by the spring, however his well being is all the time going to be a priority.
For a Phillies group that might use extra stability within the outfield, Kepler’s harm historical past is but another excuse to query this transfer. Phillies outfielders ranked 18th in wRC+ and nineteenth in WAR this previous season. Marsh was an above-average participant in opposition to right-handed pitching however a non-factor in opposition to lefties. Johan Rojas was an elite defender and baserunner, however his 68 wRC+ ranked among the many backside 5 within the sport (min. 350 PA). Castellanos was the one a kind of three who truly took the sector daily, however the numbers counsel he’s the final one who ought to have been taking part in that always. He completed the 12 months dangerously near substitute stage (0.4 WAR); he merely wasn’t productive sufficient on the plate (105 wRC+) for a participant who provided nothing in every other side of the sport. Kepler is an efficient participant, however he isn’t reply to any of the questions raised by Marsh, Rojas, and Castellanos. His prolonged harm historical past solely brings one other unknown variable into the equation.
Kepler signed with the Twins as a 16-year-old worldwide free agent. After 16 seasons with the group – virtually half of his life – he departs the one MLB group he’s ever recognized. He’s one among 133 gamers who’ve performed in every of the previous 10 seasons. He’s one among solely 10 who performed all 10 seasons for a similar group. Throughout these 10 seasons, he was a member of three AL Central-winning golf equipment and 4 playoff runs. He performed greater than 1,000 video games. Over the previous 30 years, solely 4 gamers have suited up for the Twins extra usually: Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer. All 4 are members of the Twins Corridor of Fame. Kepler by no means discovered himself within the highlight as a lot as any of these names. He was by no means the perfect participant on the group. He was by no means an MVP, an All-Star, a Silver Slugger, a Gold Glover, or a batting champion. But, after so a few years, he leaves behind his personal little legacy in Minnesota.
Now, Kepler heads to Philadelphia. He’s not the right match for his new group, however the Phillies will hope his total expertise outweighs his awkward match. Even in 2024, the worst season of his profession, Kepler was a win above substitute stage. If he might be that sort of contributor for the Phillies, the type that Whit Merrifield and Austin Hays couldn’t be, possibly all the pieces else will fall into place.
