… And that is why you progress the left subject wall again in. On Saturday, the Orioles jumped into the free agent market searching for upside, inking two veterans who, after they’re at their finest, have the power to rival essentially the most fearsome sluggers within the recreation.
Outfielder Tyler O’Neill, who bashed 32 house runs over simply 113 video games with the Crimson Sox, signed a three-year, $49.5 million deal that can make him an Oriole via his age-32 season. Catcher Gary Sánchez, who turned 32 simply final week, signed a one-year, $8.5 million deal. Each gamers are right-handed batters with a number of 30-homer seasons beneath their belts, which is to say that till the Orioles introduced a couple of weeks in the past that their left subject wall would not be positioned method the hell out in Towson, each might need significantly thought-about passing on a suggestion to play in Baltimore and watch all their would-be house runs die within the left fielder’s glove. (Actually, I’m principally joking right here. O’Neill and Sánchez have sufficient energy that they’re among the many small cohort of gamers who didn’t actually have to fret about Walltimore.)
Ben Clemens predicted that O’Neill would signal for 3 years and $45 million, whereas our crowdsourced estimate was $50 million. Congratulations readers, you’re collectively smarter than Ben! One other method to view the state of affairs is that Ben’s quantity had baked into it some very authentic considerations about O’Neill going ahead, however given the season he simply had, one workforce was sure to take of venture on his upside. The Orioles have Cedric Mullins locked in as their heart fielder for yet another yr and Colton Cowser, recent off a second-place end within the Rookie of the 12 months voting, in left. With Anthony Santander a free agent and Austin Hays gone, that leaves the left-handed Heston Kjerstad and the right-handed O’Neill. O’Neill ran an enormous 215 wRC+ in opposition to lefties in 2024, and he’s received a profession wRC+ of 152 in opposition to them. Towards righties, these numbers are 91 in 2024 and 104 over his profession. The workforce will doubtless hope to maintain him recent by letting him relaxation in opposition to the occasional righty.
O’Neill is just about tailored to take over the slugging nook outfielder function not too long ago vacated by Santander. The 2 gamers are so comparable, in reality, that they share the very same profession .246 batting common, .223 ISO, and .469 slugging proportion! Nevertheless, there are some key variations between the 2. For starters, Santander is an equal-opportunity masher who options small platoon splits. Maybe an important space during which O’Neill can’t match Santander is availability. Over the previous three seasons, Santander has performed in 460 video games, whereas O’Neill has appeared in simply 281 due to a litany of accidents to a different litany of physique components. He’s gone on the IL six occasions over the previous 4 years.
Even when he’s on the sphere, O’Neill has an extended method to go if he hopes to match Santander by way of consistency. Santander mashed 44 house runs final season and hasn’t hit fewer than 28 since 2021. The Orioles at the moment are relying on O’Neill to maintain a sizzling bat for the second yr operating, and to date in his profession that’s been a tall order. He broke out in a significant method in 2021, operating a 143 wRC+ with 34 homers whereas taking part in in 138 video games. Nevertheless, in harm truncated 2022 and 2023 seasons, he was barely under common on the plate, after which the Cardinals traded him to Boston final offseason. With the Inexperienced Monster to purpose at, O’Neill bounced all the best way again to a 131 wRC+ regardless of lacking time with knee irritation, a concussion, and a leg an infection. If he manages to place up even a league-average season on the plate, it is going to be the primary time he’s ever accomplished so for 2 seasons in a row.
All these accidents have additionally slowed O’Neill down within the subject. As soon as thought-about a wonderful defender who might handle all three nook spots, he’s been nearer to common than good over the previous three seasons. In 2024, for the primary time, Statcast’s fielding run values noticed him as costing his workforce a number of runs. His dash pace now makes him barely under common for an outfielder; it might rebound if he’s capable of keep away from leg accidents in 2025, however it’s uncertain that the Orioles count on O’Neill to contribute a lot on protection. He’ll doubtless get his fair proportion of at-bats as a DH.
I’m not portray too difficult an image right here: O’Neill is a prototypical three true outcomes slugger. All the identical, you may be shocked to see simply how shut he lives to the sting. His stat line is a research in extremes. In 2024, he ran an unpleasant 33.6% strikeout price. Amongst batters with a minimum of 450 plate appearances, that was the second-highest price in baseball. If you happen to’re questioning why he strikes out so typically, it’s not as a result of he chases all the things he sees. He runs a below-average chase price, and his 11.2% stroll price ranked twenty first amongst that cohort. It’s simply that he whiffs so much, rating within the backside eight by way of zone contact price, general contact price, and squared-up price. He’s an excessive instance of the swing-hard-in-case-you-make-contact participant, and the Orioles are placing some actual cash behind the assumption that he’ll each keep wholesome and proceed to make sufficient contact.
As a backup catcher, Sánchez will not be anticipated to play as massive an on a regular basis function as O’Neill, however should you contemplate a part of his tasks to be to assist to maintain Adley Rutschman wholesome and acting at 100%, then it’s exhausting to think about a extra essential task. Rutschman began the 2024 season trying, nicely, like Adley Rutschman. However he suffered a thumb harm in late June, and ran a wRC+ of simply 61 from June 30 onward. (For what it’s value, the Orioles have mentioned publicly that Rutschman’s poor play wasn’t resulting from any particular harm.) It wasn’t by any means a misplaced season for the younger famous person, as he’d banked a 138 wRC+ up till the harm. Nonetheless, he completed with a 104 wRC+ and a pair of.8 WAR, the worst marks of his profession. Furthermore, Rutschman ran a 138 wRC+ as a DH final season, in comparison with simply 88 as a catcher. Regardless of his excellence behind the dish, the Orioles will nearly actually be trying to let him spend a bit much less time in a squat. In different phrases, they completely want a dependable backup to take over the function that James McCann crammed over the past two seasons.
The Orioles have been reportedly focused on bringing again McCann, however McCann wished extra years than they have been prepared to provide. With shiny prospect Samuel Basallo ready within the wings, the workforce solely wished a backup on a one-year deal. Sánchez is a superbly strong alternative for that function. He’s performed in a minimum of 75 video games in every of the previous eight seasons (except for 2020, when he caught 49 of the Yankees’ 60 video games). His framing numbers ticked down a bit throughout the 2024 season, however he’s grown right into a strong defensive catcher. “I can’t say sufficient about him,” Blake Snell instructed reporters in July. “I really like throwing to him. I really like the connection that we’ve got. I really like all the things. We’re at all times on the identical web page. He understands me, I perceive him. It’s been a whole lot of enjoyable.”
Sánchez is not the hitter he was when he first broke onto the scene, however he’s run a 98 wRC+ over the previous 4 seasons, which places him within the high 20 of all catchers over that interval (minimal 800 PAs). And it’s not as if that fearsome slugger is gone fully. The sunshine-tower energy continues to be there, and when Sánchez goes nicely, it’s a sight to behold. In 2024, he snapped off two 25-game streaks during which he ran a wRC+ of 150 or higher. It’s simply that in between have been a pair streaks during which his wRC+ was 57 or worse.
Once you take these two strikes collectively, it actually seems just like the Orioles suppose there’s one thing they will unlock in a few righties with big whiff charges and exit velocities. Nevertheless, it’s doable that that is only a coincidence, and so they don’t have a selected plan to drag off an upside transfer. O’Neill fills a not too long ago vacated function, and the Orioles have the expertise to cowl for him ought to harm or underperformance strike. Likewise, Sánchez is a reliable catcher who was prepared to take a stopgap deal. The 2 gamers actually make sense in Baltimore, and perhaps it’s simply that easy.
