Hello, I’m Ben Clemens. You may know me from such articles as “C’mon, Orioles, Do One thing”, “Why Are the Orioles’ Playoff Odds So Low?”, and “Wait, FanGraphs Is Too Low on the Orioles Once more?!”. In my spare time, I additionally write about the remainder of the league, however at the moment I’m specializing in Baltimore but once more given their newest signing: The O’s and right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano have agreed to a one-year, $13 million contract.
Sugano has been top-of-the-line pitchers in NPB for greater than a decade. The 35-year-old received the Central League MVP in 2014, and he’s added two extra MVP awards since then. He additionally received two Sawamura Awards – suppose the Cy Younger, just for the complete league and with minimal standards – neither in any of his three MVP seasons. In different phrases, he’s been racking up {hardware} like nobody else for his total profession.
Studying a scouting report on Sugano is like hen soup for my command-obsessed soul. If pitching was completely about hitting a tiny goal, Sugano is perhaps one of the best pitcher on this planet. Saying that he has the ball on a string could be offensive to Sugano; I can’t management a yo-yo in addition to he can spot his five-pitch arsenal. He walked 16 of the 608 batters he confronted final yr, a 2.6% fee that will make George Kirby jealous.
It’s not simply stroll avoidance that units Sugano other than the gang, although. He works the corners and tunnels his pitches off of one another to nice impact. He can add or subtract from every thing he throws, so his five-pitch combine can really feel even deeper when a hitter is attempting to determine what’s coming subsequent. He may not encourage the bodily discomfort batters expertise when going through triple-digit warmth that would come proper at their ribcage if the pitcher misses his location, however going through Sugano is like fixing a Saturday crossword puzzle, if crossword puzzles threw splitters.
A bit extra about that pitch combine. Sugano throws two fastballs, neither of which conjures up a lot confidence. His four-seamer sits 92-93 mph on day, with a forgettable motion profile. He mixes in a sinker that he adores when behind within the rely, and that does what you’d count on: preserve the ball on the bottom and homers to a minimal. Each of these are simply show-me pitches, although. The true juice is in his flexible pitches.
As is the case for a lot of NPB pitchers, Sugano has a wipeout splitter he makes use of most regularly with two strikes. He additionally throws two breaking balls – variously reported as a cutter/slider and a slider/curveball – which act as multi-purpose choices, permitting him to assault the corners early in counts and hunt whiffs in a while. Of these three, solely the splitter stands out to me as a plus pitch unbiased of his impeccable command. That’s a theme right here: Every little thing Sugano does would look iffy if he weren’t dotting the corners, solely he’s.
At his peak, Sugano’s stuff hummed, which turned his command from an equalizer into an unfair benefit. Now, although, he’s squarely into his latter-year-Greinke part. He didn’t miss many bats in 2024, at the same time as he put up a 1.67 ERA and received his third MVP. That ERA outstripped his peripherals; he ran a below-average strikeout fee and lived on a mixture of sentimental contact and a complete absence of walks. As well as, that ERA isn’t fairly as sterling because it sounds. NPB is within the midst of an enormous decline in offense. Within the Central League, the place Sugano pitched, groups averaged 3.22 runs per sport in 2024, and hit homers at lower than half the speed of the majors. You may be capable of get by with a tame fastball in that context, however that type of pitching profile doesn’t usually play nicely within the power-happy AL East. However then once more, Sugano’s command is much from regular.
So how will Sugano’s outlier abilities look within the majors? I do not know! Right here’s what ZiPS thinks about his vary of outcomes, although:
ZiPS Percentiles – Tomoyuki Sagano (135.1 IP)
| Percentile | ERA+ | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 132 | 3.01 | 3.5 |
| 90% | 124 | 3.21 | 3.1 |
| 80% | 113 | 3.53 | 2.5 |
| 70% | 107 | 3.73 | 2.2 |
| 60% | 102 | 3.90 | 2.0 |
| 50% | 100 | 3.99 | 1.8 |
| 40% | 96 | 4.14 | 1.6 |
| 30% | 91 | 4.38 | 1.2 |
| 20% | 87 | 4.57 | 0.9 |
| 10% | 82 | 4.86 | 0.5 |
| 5% | 78 | 5.07 | 0.3 |
If I had been the Orioles, I’d be extraordinarily concerned with acquiring a pitcher like Sugano on this type of deal. There’s a good likelihood that he finally ends up as nothing greater than an innings-eater, a late-career model of former Yomiuri Giants teammate Miles Mikolas. You wouldn’t wish to begin that model of Sugano within the playoffs, however he’d be a succesful fifth starter.
Even that consequence isn’t precisely a catastrophe for Baltimore. They’ve some fascinating top-of-rotation arms, however their depth is missing. They’re relying on quite a lot of guys – Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer, Grayson Rodriguez – with sturdiness questions. Zach Eflin threw 165.1 innings this season, and Albert Suarez is a pleasant swingman, however they’ll want a ton of rotation assist. Final yr, even with Corbin Burnes main the workers, Cade Povich and Cole Irvin made 16 begins apiece. Even a diminished model of Sugano might exchange these innings comfortably.
The upside case? This man simply tore the second-best baseball league on this planet to shreds. He seemed to be on the decline in 2022 and 2023, however he wouldn’t be the primary ace pitcher to stage a profession renaissance after just a few ugly years, and even his ugly years weren’t full disasters. If he spins a sub-3.00 ERA season out of splitters, deception, and only a tiny little bit of life on his fastball, would you actually be floored?
For one yr and $13 million, I really like the danger/reward right here. That’s Alex Cobb cash, lower than it value for one yr of Frankie Montas, who simply received a two-year deal. Possibly Sugano’s fastball will get tattooed. Possibly command simply received’t lower it when he can’t miss bats. However he wouldn’t be the primary finesse-based pitcher to reach the majors, and his observe report means that he’s top-of-the-line finesse pitchers on this planet.
As is customary for one in all my articles concerning the Orioles, I nonetheless don’t suppose they’ve finished sufficient. We’re midway by way of Adley Rutschman’s six years of discounted workforce management, and the O’s haven’t received a playoff sport but. Their farm system remains to be ridiculous. Their payroll is comfortably within the backside half of the majors. Their rotation might use a Burnes alternative, whether or not somebody who’s signed in free company or acquired in commerce. Heck, they might a minimum of throw some cash at Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson (or Jordan Westburg, or Colton Cowser, or…) for an extension.
However that’s not at the moment’s enterprise. In the present day’s enterprise is Sugano, and once more, I really like the deal. I hope he’s throwing darts on the low-and-outside nook as a playoff starter on the finish of subsequent season – and even when he isn’t, I feel the Orioles had been sensible to take a danger on him.
