The Orioles lastly bought bored with being poked with a persist with choruses of “Do one thing!” and signed Charlie Morton to a one-year deal value $15 million. Will this transfer silence these voices? In all probability not! However as Baltimore’s GM, Mike Elias appears impervious to exterior suggestions, so these nonetheless crowing might as nicely be speaking to a wall. Then once more, possibly a wall would have a greater understanding of the significance of steadiness relating to development, making it higher outfitted to assemble an enormous league roster. However extra on that in a minute.
In a vacuum, signing Morton to an reasonably priced, short-term deal is a optimistic addition. Although 2025 will probably be his age-41 season, Morton has logged a minimum of 160 innings in every of the final 4 years and put up league common (or higher) numbers. Given the shortage of wholesome, high quality pitching over the previous couple of years, pitchers who put up are extraordinarily beneficial. And if one didn’t know Morton had already crested 40, scanning his manufacturing wouldn’t yield any apparent giveaways. He has grow to be extra of a finesse pitcher, counting on command and weak contact over strikeouts, however the shift has been delicate. During the last 4 seasons, he’s thrown his curveball greater than his four-seamer and his groundball fee has progressively grown, whereas his strikeout fee has slowly dwindled. Morton’s curve is well his greatest pitch by Stuff+ at 122, and that’s what he makes use of to induce whiffs and groundballs. His different choices have Stuff+ scores starting from 72 to 86, however he locates them nicely they usually mirror the spin of his curveball to maintain hitters off steadiness.
As a pitcher counting on his skill to maintain the ball on the bottom, it will make Morton’s life simpler to take the mound in entrance of a robust infield protection. In 2024, the Orioles infielders logged -20 OAA and -14.3 defensive runs, however there may be motive to assume they’ll do higher transferring ahead. Final season’s numbers embrace quite a lot of Jordan Westburg taking part in second base as an alternative of third, the place he’s a a lot stronger defender, and Ramón Urías taking a look at occasions overcooked whereas protecting the new nook after Westburg went down with a fractured hand. In the meantime, it is a younger crew that also has room for progress. Ryan Mountcastle’s protection at first has seen small year-over-year enhancements since 2022, when he made the transfer from the outfield everlasting. Ideally, Jackson Holliday will get settled in at second, and although Gunnar Henderson’s play at shortstop is the least of anybody’s concern, provided that he’s nonetheless solely 23, there’s no motive to assume he’s performed leveling up his sport.
If his current monitor document continues into 2025, Morton can contribute vital innings to a contending crew. However within the context of the present Orioles roster, and alongside the information that Corbin Burnes is formally off the market (with no cheap substitute for Burnes obtainable in free company), bringing in Morton isn’t sufficient to assist the O’s progress from good common season crew to profitable postseason crew.
So far, Baltimore’s offseason has been characterised by modest shuffling on the margins of the roster. First, including Gary Sánchez to tackle the James McCann position of sharing time behind the plate with Adley Rutschman to maintain him contemporary and productive. Then, signing Tyler O’Neill to take over for outfielder Anthony Santander, who’s more likely to signal elsewhere in free company. And at last, bringing in Tomoyuki Sugano, a 35-year-old NPB veteran with questions round how nicely his stuff will translate to MLB. None of those strikes definitively makes Baltimore higher; actually, the aim of those additions is usually to switch gamers who’re not on the crew. Morton, although, can not replicate Burnes’ worth, so if the Orioles are going to make up for his or her ace’s departure, they’ll want to search out that manufacturing on the commerce market.
Underneath Elias, the Orioles have confirmed they’ll assemble a profitable roster via drafting and growth, however in the event you have been to ask Elias if he’d be interested by buying a one-tool participant, no matter how good that device is, he’d in all probability say no. However from what we will observe from the skin, Elias is a one-tool GM. He acknowledges Orioles’ proprietor David Rubenstein’s urgency to win a World Collection, saying Rubenstein “desires to do the whole lot we will do inside our energy” to achieve that purpose, which presumably contains spending in free company. Elias is selecting to not. He’s overseen a number of commerce deadlines and offseasons with alternatives to improve the roster through commerce. In that span, he has acquired only one affect participant — Burnes — and let him stroll after one season. This strategy might have labored eight years in the past, when Elias was with the Astros, however in 2025, too many groups excel in a number of sides of roster development, and Elias can not get away with relying solely drafting and growing. That’s very true for Baltimore, a crew that churns out a surplus of place gamers from its pipeline, however not sufficient pitchers. The O’s want a extra balanced strategy.
Elias denies that he’s unwilling to signal free brokers who would require the Orioles to surrender a compensatory draft choose; as an alternative, he’s mentioned the crew weighs the worth of these picks when evaluating potential signings. That’s cheap sufficient, however contemplating how inactive the O’s have been on the high of the free agent market since Elias took over, it’s truthful to marvel if he inflates the worth of draft picks. Or, possibly he doesn’t regulate for the truth that draft picks present future worth, and the Orioles want main league worth proper now. It’s the accountability of a GM to handle a number of goals throughout the entrance workplace. That Elias appears singularly centered on constructing a system for sustainable success, even when it comes on the expense of profitable within the current, is confounding.
Elias has made it clear that sustainability and avoiding contracts that may flip into lifeless cash on the books is a part of how he evaluates himself. As he spoke about Rubenstein’s enthusiasm for profitable, he went on to say that doing the whole lot “inside our energy” additionally means “inside our ability set to strategy that accurately, and there’s measurement to the way you go about this enterprise. There’s give and take. You possibly can’t do the whole lot that you just wish to do on a regular basis.” I might argue measuring the way you go about it ought to embrace the chance value of strikes not made. Elias might imagine he’s insulated himself and the crew from the danger of huge unfavourable line objects on his résumé by solely trafficking in small scale offers, however the worth misplaced by not signing Blake Snell or Burnes or anybody else must also present up in purple ink on his efficiency assessment. Inaction carries danger that may be simply as impactful as the danger of overpaying a longtime participant. And whereas it’s truthful to notice that Elias is much from the one GM selecting to play it secure on the free agent market, if he’s so danger averse that he can’t bear the concept of handing out a contract with an AAV over $20 million, he’s going to have a troublesome time developing a roster that may win a collection in October.
And whereas we’re speaking about October, the Orioles have regarded good within the common season for a few years now – solely to get swept out of the postseason. Random variation briefly collection explains some, if not all, of their playoff misfortunes. Nevertheless it additionally supplies a straightforward excuse for justifying inertia. Baltimore’s roster has confirmed itself completely sufficient for profitable within the common season. The offense is formidable and the pitching has carried out nicely sufficient regardless of accidents and patches of inconsistency. Over the course of 162 video games, there’s room for gamers to overlook time or undergo slumps, and it’s okay to depend on the fringey corners of the roster to contribute. However to beat the randomness of the postseason, groups want affect gamers who can keep locked in for a full collection or carry the specter of tilting the sport with one swing of the bat. And crucially, they want to have the ability to do it underneath the stress of the postseason. Pretty much as good as Baltimore is at growth, it’s very tough to develop good postseason performers with out veteran teammates round to guide by instance and present them the way it’s performed.
Re-tooling on the margins will convey the O’s continued success within the common season, however doing that and never including an impactful veteran presence to a younger roster creates one more imbalance, one which doesn’t think about what it takes for a roster to additionally achieve success within the postseason. Final 12 months, the Orioles made a transfer in the correct route by buying and selling for Burnes, a longtime ace, to guide the pitching employees. They nonetheless didn’t handle a postseason win, however that doesn’t imply the strategy was fallacious. If something, the Orioles didn’t go far sufficient with their roster additions. However, as an alternative of studying from final 12 months’s prudence, Elias appears to be backtracking.
The Orioles have been good to signal Morton; he’s nonetheless a succesful pitcher and he does present a veteran presence. However at this level in his profession, he’s a complementary piece. He’s positively not the affect pitcher that Burnes is, and an affect pitcher is what the Orioles want.
Which highlights the ultimate imbalance on the Orioles’ roster, a rotation constructed fully out of starters who both hover round league common or have upside however lack consistency. And except Trevor Rogers or Cade Povich wins a spot in that rotation, it would even be composed fully of righties. It’s a superbly advantageous rotation for plodding via an everyday season, however not one which intimidates in October. Certain, the Dodgers proved you may win a World Collection with a solid of largely middling pitchers pieced collectively by Dr. Frankenstein, however given the rapidity with which they signed Snell, it’s clear they’re not daring sufficient to assume they’ll make that work greater than as soon as. So whereas it’s actually attainable to have success with no clear no. 1 starter, it’s one thing a contending crew ought to strive solely out of necessity — not by alternative.
The Morton signing makes the Orioles higher, however solely compared to the place they have been after they didn’t re-sign Burnes. As a result of in comparison with final 12 months’s rotation, this one is worse.
