Olympics’ ultimate 4 males’s basketball groups, ranked by gold medal probabilities in Paris

Twelve groups entered the lads’s basketball event on the 2024 Paris Olympics. Now solely 4 stay. The US, Germany, France, and Serbia superior to the semifinals on Tuesday in an exciting day of motion that included huge upsets and historic comebacks. This event — rightfully billed as probably the most gifted within the historical past of the Olympics — has lived as much as each ounce of hype thus far, and the end guarantees to be the very best half but.

We ranked Canada because the second-best staff within the subject forward of the quarterfinals. Whoops. As a substitute, France benched Rudy Gobert and blitzed the Canadians with a punishing inside scoring assault. Elsewhere, Serbia worn out the largest deficit in Olympics historical past to stun Australia, and america and Germany took care of enterprise.

Earlier than the semifinals tip off on Thursday, right here’s how we’d rank the 4 groups remaining by their probabilities of capturing the gold medal.

4. Serbia

Serbia’s Olympic dream was on life help when Australia raced out to a 24-point lead within the quarterfinals. That’s when Nikola Jokic reminded the group in Paris that he’s the very best participant on the planet. Jokic was making successful performs everywhere in the flooring as Serbia finally wrestled away the lead within the third quarter, displaying off his elite inside scorer, passing, and rebounding, whereas additionally using the FIBA guidelines for one key block off the rim. Serbia hasn’t performed by means of Jokic (who wasn’t a member of final 12 months’s World Cup staff) as a lot as you may anticipate, however the staff nonetheless is aware of the place to go together with the ball when the sport is on the road. For as spectacular as Serbia’s comeback was, it’s onerous to see their pathway to a win over the USA until their guards actually go off. Vasilije Micic and Bogdan Bogdanovic each began to unlock their offense towards Greece, however doing it vs. Jrue Vacation, Derrick White, and the remainder of the U.S. protection is a a lot harder job. It’s wild to assume that Serbia may have the very best participant on the ground within the matchup, however Group USA has the subsequent 12 greatest gamers. Serbia can preserve it shut if it performs its greatest recreation, however the U.S. needs to be an excessive amount of.

Picture by Tom Weller/VOIGT/GettyImages

3. France

Head coach Vincent Collet benched Rudy Gobert and Evan Fournier within the quarterfinals towards Canada, and the lineup change gave France what it wanted to tug off the large upset. The French went small with Isaïa Cordinier and Guerschon Yabusele attacking a weak Canadian entrance courtroom, permitting them to in some way win a recreation the place Gobert and Nic Batum went scoreless, and Victor Wembanyama shot solely 2-for-10 from the sector. France in all probability gained’t be capable to stick to a small ball lineup towards a German staff with tons of beef within the center (Daniel Theis, Johannes Voigtmann, and Mo Wagner), but it surely must proceed discovering methods to create spacing and preserve the ball transferring. France’s poor guard play will stay to be a difficulty in any matchup, however Fournier getting sizzling off the bench was a development it want to see proceed. The trail to the French punching their ticket to the gold medal recreation begins with Wembanyama bouncing again offensively, and sure wants to incorporate Gobert getting again on the ground and fortifying the paint. If France can beat Canada, you shouldn’t low cost the house staff’s probabilities towards anybody.

Picture by Gregory Shamus/Getty Photographs

2. Germany

Germany was on the ropes early towards Greece, however this German staff is simply too powerful and too organized to exit unhappy within the quarterfinals towards a significant underdog. Germany cast its comeback behind star Franz Wagner’s perimeter creation potential, and a lockdown protection that held Greece to 27 second half factors. Whereas he’s nonetheless ice chilly as a three-point shooter, Wagner stays one of the vital devastating scorers left on this subject, sufficiently big to energy his method deep into the paint, and expert sufficient to complete. Dennis Schröder continues to be the ‘lightning’ that enhances Wagner’s ‘thunder’ offensively. The veteran guard is solely method too fast for France’s shaky guard rotation. That is changing into a golden period for German basketball with a 2023 World Cup championship to their identify and now their first ever berth within the Olympic semifinals. The Germans play onerous and play collectively. They’ve two nice creation choices within the youthful Wagner brother and Schröder, they usually have loads of dimension down low. Even towards a hostile French setting, Germany deserves to be the favourite to play for gold.

Picture by Gregory Shamus/Getty Photographs

1. United States

Brazil was by no means going to check america, and certainly it didn’t. The U.S. turned their quarterfinal matchup right into a rout by the second quarter with Steve Kerr’s staff once more flexing its gorgeous mixture of depth and firepower. The very best quality of this USA staff is it might nonetheless thrive even when its greatest stars have an off-night. Six American gamers reached double-figures in scoring towards Brazil, and a balanced offensive assault ought to proceed as the established order for a gaggle that has been very prepared to make sacrifices and share the ball. The scary factor for the remainder of the world is that Group USA appears to be like this good with out Stephen Curry hitting many photographs from deep. Serbia will nonetheless be an enormous take a look at for the U.S. It has the very best participant on the ground, and it performs with a togetherness that helps encourage upsets. That is the kind of staff that would give the USA bother on paper, however proper now Kerr’s squad is enjoying at such a excessive degree that it’s troublesome to doubt them. Group USA has gained seven of the final eight gold medals in males’s basketball, they usually’re two wins away from including one other one. For the time being, it doesn’t seem like anybody can cease them.